There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 10 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 10.

Let's highlight a few names.

Jalen McMillan

Jalen McMillan was able to get in a limited practice on Saturday ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Week 9 Monday Night Football matchup, but he ultimately sat out.

That left the team without McMillan, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, and only tight end Cade Otton saw substantial targets. He had 11 looks (a 35.5% share), followed by Sterling Shepard's 5 targets (16.1%).

McMillan's chances to earn downfield targets is quite great -- based on his prior-season usage, Evans' absence, and the dispersed distribution we saw in Week 9.

It's a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers, but the Bucs are at home with a moderate implied team total, and the Niners allow the seventh-highest aDOT to opposing receivers in the league.

The model doesn't expect a league-winning week from him -- just that the arrow is up if he's good to go.

Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle

I'll keep this one brief because both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle keep making this list.

Hill caught 4 of 5 targets last week for 80 yards. Of his targets, 3 were at least 10 yards downfield, and has amassed a 59.4% air yards share. Waddle wasn't targeted until late in the game but had an end zone target for a score.

In four games with Tua Tagovailoa back, Hill has a 23.2% target share with Waddle at 12.3%, but they're indoors against a Los Angeles Rams defense that ranks 22nd in adjusted pass defense.

Tagovailoa has averaged 257.0 yards per game in domes in his career.

Andrei Iosivas

Tee Higgins didn't practice at all in Week 9, so the chances he's good to go for Thursday are fair to question.

Last week, Andrei Iosivas ran just three fewer routes than Ja'Marr Chase and had 4 targets for 10 yards with a touchdown. He's a downfield threat and a red zone threat.

In four games without Higgins, Iosivas has a 12.5% target share but a 19.7% air yards share. The Baltimore Ravens rank 29th in adjusted pass defense, 27th in average depth of target allowed, and 28th in yards per target allowed on downfield passes this season.

The building blocks are there for Iosivas, though the model still shows we should keep expectations in check.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a very up-and-down season. He's had just two top-15 half-PPR finishes and has finished better than the WR20 only once since Week 4 when he was the WR5 in Week 8 against the Miami Dolphins.

Three of Harrison Jr.'s four outings with at least 13.0 half-PPR points came against teams that ranked 20th or worse in aDOT allowed. The New York Jets are 32nd in average depth of target allowed to opponents.

Via NextGenStats, Harrison Jr. has had +61.9 receiving yards over expected on downfield throws this year. The underlying data here shows that he could have a big game -- despite the matchup.

D.J. Moore
Rome Odunze
Keenan Allen

Here we go again.

D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen should be performing better than they have recently.

They step into a matchup with the New England Patriots, who are 28th in adjusted pass defense for the season. They've let up 1.77 yards per route run to opposing wideouts, which is tied for seventh-worst in the league. New England has also given up a +3.6% catch rate over expectation, per NextGenStats, which is fourth-worst in the league.

In six games with all three of these wideouts active, Allen leads with a 25.9% target share, followed by Moore (24.7%) and Odunze (17.3%), and all three have double-digit aDOTs.

Although wind could be up, they're at home and facing a bottom-tier adjusted pass defense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.