Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 6)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.

Last week, we touched on Breece Hall (woof), Josh Jacobs (season-high 15.9 fantasy points), and J.K. Dobbins (bye week). Hall and Dobbins are still buy-low candidates, while the buy window has likely closed on Jacobs.

Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 6?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 6

Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Mason has been really, really good thus far. He's fantasy's RB9 in points-per-game (15.9) and has the second most rushing yards in the league entering Week 6.

But Mason's been held to single-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games, and there's speculation that Christian McCaffrey could return to the field as early as Week 7. Assuming his fantasy manager in your league didn't have to spend a high draft pick to acquire him before the season, they could be looking to get some value for him while they still can.

If you're under .500, Mason is someone I'd be all over entering Week 6.

For one, Mason has been one of the most heavily utilized backs in the NFL. He's averaging 24.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), a 75.7% snap rate, and 5.2 red zone rush attempts per game -- all top-five marks among running backs with at least three games played.

Yet, Mason has scored just 3 touchdowns despite sporting a top 10 red zone opportunity share (43.8%) for a top 10 scoring offense. If he continues to see such have red zone involvement, that's going to change.

Now, it's fair to oppose trading for Mason with positive CMC news buzzing. But the San Francisco 49ers have a Week 9 bye, so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see McCaffrey held out until Week 10.

That would give Mason, at minimum, three more games as San Fran's lead back. Those three weeks see the Niners face defenses ranked 18th, 1st, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

And if McCaffrey suffers a setback or isn't able to return right away after their bye?

Well, according to PFF's strength of schedule metric, San Francisco has the easiest remaining running back schedule in the NFL.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans

The last time we saw Tony Pollard in action, he put up a season high 17.8 fantasy points. I wouldn't typically advise trading for a player fresh off their best game of the year, but Pollard and the Tennessee Titans were on bye last week -- thus opening the buy window on the Titans lead back.

Entering Week 6, Pollard is the RB18 in points-per-game (13) despite facing four top 14 defenses (by offensive Net Expected Points allowed). He's averaged a healthy 23.3 adjusted opportunities and 83.8 scrimmage yards per game while playing at least 60% of snaps every game.

Backup Tyjae Spears, on the other hand, has yet to exceed a 45% single-game snap rate and appears to be more of a change-of-pace option beside Pollard.

But Pollard hasn't had a true blow-up game, and your league mates may not realize how strong his role has been. With Tennessee's schedule letting up over the next few weeks, now is the time to get him on your roster.

The next two weeks, Pollard and the Titans will face the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts -- teams ranked 32nd and 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Those are both smash spots for Pollard, and they'll likely cause his rest-of-season value to skyrocket.

Pollard is someone that can help you in the short and long term but shouldn't drive an outrageous asking price fresh off his bye.

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Over the last three weeks, only Breece Hall has scored fewer fantasy points than expected than De'Von Achane, according to PFF's expected fantasy points model.

But Achane suffered a concussion last week -- one that resulted in him exiting the game after just 11 snaps. If we just look at Week 3 and 4, Achane's 28.6 expected fantasy points ranked 12th at the position. His 11.7 actual fantasy points ranked 49th.

Last week's concussion is a tad worrying, but the Miami Dolphins are on bye this week, so he'll have a full two weeks to get through concussion protocol. If you're 4-1 or 5-0 coming out of Week 5, Achane's someone I'd be actively looking to acquire, especially if he's stuck on a team that's under .500.

We saw Achane flash top-10 positional upside in Week 1 and 2, during which he averaged 30 adjusted opportunities, 132.5 yards, and 22.8 fantasy points per game. Granted, the bulk of that production came with Tua Tagovailoa under center, but there's renewed optimism that Tua could return to practice in the next two weeks.

His potential return would elevate the entire 'Fins lineup and considering how heavily they leaned on him prior to his concussion, Achane could be the biggest beneficiary in fantasy.

Again, with Achane headed on bye this week and Tua still on IR, buying low on De'Von Achane is a long-term move. But if your fantasy team is positioned to cruise into the playoffs, he makes for a strong addition that could be a difference-maker at the end of the year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.