Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 5)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline. If you're looking for buy-low wide receivers, stay glued to FanDuel Research for Brandon Gdula's weekly wide receiver breakouts piece.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 5

Breece Hall, New York Jets

If there was ever a time that Breece Hall would be available on the trade market, this would be it.

Hall is coming off by far his worst game of the season. He set season-lows for fantasy points (2.8), rush attempts (10), and receptions (2). But he still saw 20 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), ran a route on 47% of dropbacks, and earned 3 red zone rush attempts -- though none resulted in a touchdown.

His lack of effectiveness is mildly concerning, but the volume is still rock-solid. According to PFF's expected fantasy points model, Hall's expected fantasy point total was 15.7 last week, eighth among running backs. Based on their model, Hall was the single-biggest underperformer at running back in Week 4.

So, while he's still the RB12 on the season, fantasy managers who exhausted a first-round pick on Hall likely have some frustrations over his Week 4 outing. That could be compounded by how good rookie backup Braelon Allen has looked, and those two factors create a unique buy window for one of the top backs in fantasy.

Even with last week's poor showing Hall is averaging 26 adjusted opportunities (fifth among running backs), an 18% target share (third), and 16.7 expected fantasy points per game (eighth). That's more expected fantasy points than Derrick Henry, James Cook, and Brian Robinson -- all three of whom I like less than Hall rest-of-season but have scored more fantasy points to thus far.

Now, you may be able to wait a week to buy low on Hall considering his Week 5 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota has surrendered the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and they're seventh in rushing success rate allowed. But a mouth-watering matchup with the Buffalo Bills awaits in Week 6, and Hall's steady dose of volume could close this buy window quickly if he has a good game.

Make sure the Hall manager knows that this isn't the best matchup for him and take advantage of a lackluster Week 4 to secure a potential top five running back rest of season.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

With Jordan Love back, this Green Bay Packers offense is one I'm actively looking to buy into. However, Jayden Reed is likely unattainable coming off a monster performance, and Dontayvion Wicks could be as hard to come by as a top Week 5 waiver wire target. That makes the Packer passing attack a bit harder to get a piece of than we'd like.

But Josh Jacobs quietly saw a season-high 6 targets last week, and he's been one of the biggest underperformers (by expected fantasy points) all season. Jacobs is also coming off consecutive games where he failed to crack double-digit fantasy points, and he hasn't exceeded 13.1 fantasy points in a single game yet.

That makes him someone we can try to buy-low on, because the underlying utilization is there for Jacobs to be a high-end weekly option. Among running backs who have played at least two games, Jacobs ranks 14th in adjusted opportunities (22.3), eighth in red zone rush attempts (3.0), and 10th in scrimmage yards (95.3) per game.

He's just 25th running back fantasy points.

That figures to change in the coming weeks with Love back under center, especially if the receiving volume he flashed in Week 4 continues.

That could come as soon as Week 5 with Green Bay slated to take on the Los Angeles Rams. L.A. has allowed the fifth highest rushing success rate fourth most rushing Net Expected Points (numberFire's EPA metric) per play on the season. In turn, they've surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

It doesn't hurt that Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in a game that features a 47.5-point over/under. Full Packers-Rams odds can be found below.

Josh Jacobs is a proven commodity in fantasy, and he's attached to what should be a high-flying Packers offense with Jordan Love back. Ahead of a soft matchup, this is the right time to buy low on Jacobs and secure a potential top-15 back going forward.

J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers are off for Week 5, so J.K. Dobbins isn't someone I'm necessarily looking to add if my team is 0-4 or 1-3. But if you have a few wins under your belt and can afford to be without him for a week, Dobbins is an easy buy-low target.

For one, he's coming a pair of sub-10-point outings where he finished as the weekly RB39 and RB30. Granted, he was due for some down performances after finishing as a top-five back in Weeks 1 and 2, but the volume has actually increased over the last two games.

Back-to-back games against the Pittsburgh Steelers (third in fantasy points allowed to running backs) and Kansas City Chiefs (second) with a hobbled Justin Herbert have soured his output, but the fact that Dobbins just saw a 71% snap rate and has recorded 3 receptions in consecutive games bodes well for his rest-of-season outlook.

A week of rest for Herbert should help this entire offense, and in turn, lead to more favorable game environments for Dobbins.

That makes him a running back to target in the trade market, especially if their current team is sitting at 0-4 or 1-3 headed into Dobbins' bye week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.