Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 16)
Fantasy football trade deadlines have come and gone, but it's never too late to buy low on underperforming running backs.
Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in DFS, or which props to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.
So, with the 2024 NFL season entering the home stretch, which running backs should buy-low on ahead of Week 16?
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 16
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor has become a weekly attendee of the buy-low running backs piece, but he is, again, a running back that may be undervalued heading into Week 16.
Taylor was well on his way to playing off this list before a mind-boggling fumble cost him upwards of 8 fantasy points last week. But the box score won't show that; all we'll see is a 12.6 attached to his name -- a fine performance, but not one you're especially pleased with as a Taylor investor.
That marked the sixth straight game Taylor has failed to crack 20 fantasy points. In those six games, he's been held to single-digit fantasy points three times.
But the usage is still there. Taylor saw 26 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) last week, going over 100 scrimmage yards for the second straight game. During this six-game down stretch, Taylor is averaging 24 adjusted opportunities and 3.7 red zone rush attempts per game.
That's the kind of utilization that gets me to buy back into Taylor week in, week out. It's reflected in his expected fantasy points (xFP) numbers, too. According to PFF, Taylor has been the second-biggest underperformer by xFP since Week 9. He's the RB11 by xFP in that stretch but just the RB30 by fantasy points per game.
As such, I'll again be targeting JT as a buy-low heading into Week 16. This could be the game where he finally over-corrects this recent underperformance, too. He'll take on a Tennessee Titans side that ranked 12th in adjusted run defense but was just 19th in fantasy points allowed to running backs heading into Week 15.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne has had a disappointing season, especially relative to where he was drafted in the summer. But his role has quietly been rock-solid over the last month, and he could be in for a strong finish to the year with the Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly showing some life on offense.
Last week, Etienne was the clear top back in Jacksonville. He out-snapped Tank Bigsby for the third time in four games and saw 24 adjusted opportunities to Tank's 13.
Perhaps most notable was his work in the receiving game. After drawing 5 targets on Sunday, Etienne has now seen 9 targets to Bigsby's 3 over the last two games. Etienne has a 52% route participation over those two games compared to just 21% for Bigsby.
The two have identical red zone opportunity shares (27%) across those two games, but Etienne again leads the way with a 71% red zone snap rate. Bigsby is at a measly 29%.
It appears that Etienne is back to being the top back in Jacksonville, but his mild, 10.5-point performance in Week 15 may not garner as much hype as his role should.
That's reflected in a lowly $6,300 salary in DFS this week, making him a real value in my eyes given the matchup. Etienne will take on a Las Vegas Raiders defense that entered Week 15 ranked 20th in schedule-adjusted run defense and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
He's the kind of value back I'll be looking to get into DFS lineups, especially with noteworthy pass-catchers to play on the opposite side against Jacksonville's horrific secondary.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. had his worst game since the New York Giants expanded his role last week, but the underlying utilization was still plenty strong to warrant buying back in on him ahead of Week 16.
Against a shutdown Baltimore Ravens run defense, Tracy managed just 35 yards on 18 adjusted opportunities, finishing with 4.0 fantasy points. To make matters worse, Devin Singletary out-gained him on the same number of touches, and he punched in a two-yard rushing touchdown.
That's not a great sign for Tracy moving forward, and it's no wonder his DFS salary has since dipped to $6,400 on FanDuel.
But Tracy played nearly twice as many snaps (40-21) as Singletary, and he was at a 76% snap rate in the first-half before things got completely one-sided. That's going to be a risk with this Giants team moving forward, but they won't have to face Baltimore every week.
Tracy has still shown plenty of pop to justify taking another swing on him. He's failed to reach 100 scrimmage yards over the last four outings after doing so in four of six games prior to the bye, but we know the upside is there. And even with Singletary's touchdown last week, Tracy still owns a 33% red zone opportunity share since New York's bye compared to 14% for the veteran.
It doesn't hurt that Tracy gets to take on the Atlanta Falcons next week. Atlanta was just 17th in schedule-adjusted run defense and had given up the 4th-highest rushing success rate to running backs prior to Week 15.
As such, Tyrone Tracy is someone I'm buying back into with softer matchups ahead.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.