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Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 10)

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Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 10)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.

Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 9?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 10

Breece Hall, New York Jets

This is Breece Hall's second appearance on the buy-low running backs piece, and that kind of sums up how 2024 has gone for the consensus first-round pick.

It's not like Breece has been bad, but consistency is lacking. He's down to RB19 in fantasy points per game and has more weekly finishes outside the top 40 (two) than he does inside the top five (one).

That's not ideal for someone drafted a few months back as the second RB off the board.

Hall's fantasy struggles have been especially abundant over the last six weeks, during which he's been held to single-digit fantasy points four times. That includes each of the past two games, likely opening a buy window in your fantasy football league's trade market.

It's a window you should be at.

Breece has averaged just 11.6 fantasy points during this six-game stretch, but he's still seen 23.7 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game, 11th in the league. Though his targets (5.2 per game) have dropped from the 6.3 he averaged the first three weeks, his red zone opportunity share (31.9%) has actually grown over the last six games. That just hasn't translated to touchdowns. After scoring in each of the first three games, Hall only has one touchdown in the last six weeks.

That's reflected in his expected fantasy points (xFP). Per PFF, Hall averaged 2.6 fewer fantasy points than expected in Weeks 4-9. Based on his utilization, he was expected to score 3.5 touchdowns over that stretch. He scored only once.

The efficiency is a tad concerning. Breece is averaging fewer rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) than he did in 2023, and his yards per attempt is down (4.5 to 4.0). But he's still putting up 92.1 scrimmage yards off 25.1 adjusted opportunities a game -- right in line with last year's marks (93.2 yds; 24.3 adj. opps). Hall is one of just five running backs averaging 25 adjusted opportunities and 90 scrimmage yards per game.

Just like last season, New York's offense appears to be holding Hall back. But their schedule really opens up down the stretch. The Jets have the third-best rest-of-season running back schedule and the second-best during the fantasy playoffs, according to PFF.

Better days are ahead for the Jets' offense, and Hall should be one of the primary beneficiaries of their soft upcoming schedule. If anyone values him at less than the top five running back he is, Breece Hall is an easy buy candidate.

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

Tyrone Tracy Jr. flopped in what looked like a strong matchup last week, finishing with just 7.4 fantasy points. With Tracy's 22-point Week 8 outburst sandwiched in between a pair of single-digit performances, there's a chance the Tracy manager in your league isn't completely sold on him rest of season.

If that's the case, now is a good time to pounce.

Despite the lackluster outing, Tracy was still the clear top back for the New York Giants. He handled 18 adjusted opportunities for the fourth time in five games and saw his snap rate increase even with Devin Singletary active for the second straight week. That included New York's work in the red zone, where Tracy out-snapped Singletary five to two and saw all three of their red zone rush attempts.

Tracy didn't produce this past week, but the utilization was there. He's still cleared 100 scrimmage yards in three of the five games where he played at least 50% of snaps, so we should be bullish on his future production given the recent usage.

Looking ahead, the Giants have the best running back schedule rest of season, according to PFF. Assuming this utilization holds, Tracy is going to feast in softer matchups. He's someone I'd be especially eager to acquire in leagues where you need to make a splash to jump back into the playoff race, but he's a strong add for contenders, too.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren and the Pittsburgh Steelers are fresh off a bye, and that alone is going to make him a little easier to trade for. But it's not like Warren had been tearing it up prior to the off week. He has a season-high of 7.1 fantasy points and has failed to finish as a top-30 back in any of his six healthy weeks.

But the utilization has been trending up, especially in the last two games with Russell Wilson under center. Over the last two, Warren has averaged 16.5 adjusted opportunities and played 45% of snaps -- compared to 25 adjusted opportunities and a 54.3% snap rate for starter Najee Harris. Yes, Najee's still the clear starter. But Warren has quietly posted a higher route participation rate than Harris (40.6% to 31.3%) with Wilson under center, suggesting the Steelers see a role for both backs in their new-look offense.

The Steelers don't have a very good schedule for running backs going forward. In fact, they have the second worst for the rest of the season, per PFF. But that's something I worry less about with Warren given his growing receiving role, and a tough schedule could actually help him if Pittsburgh falls into negative game scripts.

Warren isn't likely to be a league-winner. But he's someone who could absolutely serve as a flex option as we get deeper into bye weeks, and there's obvious upside if Harris were to go down.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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