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Fantasy Football: Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Week 18 Update)
As fantasy football players, we need to study matchups each and every week.
How exactly to determine the best matchups can be tricky, but rather than look just at yards per carry or passing yards per game allowed, we have alternatives.
Fantasy points per game allowed to opponents can get us an idea of where weak points are, but why not adjust those to opponent level? By that, I don't even mean simply team-level adjustments. After all, we know that holding a superstar wideout in check is more impressive than stifling a third-string teammate. So, these numbers will adjust themselves to contextualize for opponents at the player level more and more throughout the season.
I also like to lean on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric in various ways. NEP (an EPA model by a different name) indicates expected points gained for a team's offense -- or denied by a team's defense.
Here's a good example of why it matters. A 15-yard catch looks great on paper, especially compared to a 5-yard catch. But if the 15-yarder comes on 3rd-and-20, it's not very impactful. If the shorter gain comes on 3rd-and-2, it's a significant play and boosts the offense's scoring expectation. It was a success.
Adding this context can show us which teams defend positions well and which teams may have their traditional stats inflated by plays that don't matter as much as others.
Here's a breakdown of various metrics allowed to the each position across the NFL through Week 17's games.
For defensive purposes, lower success rates, NEP, and fantasy points allowed numbers allowed are better.
Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (QB Passing)
Team Defense | QB Pass NEP/Drop Back | Rank | Passing Success Rate | Rank | Adj. FP/DB | Rank | Avg. Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | -0.13 | 2 | 37.7% | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 1.7 |
| KC | -0.08 | 3 | 39.9% | 4 | 0.32 | 3 | 3.3 |
| CLE | -0.15 | 1 | 34.7% | 1 | 0.36 | 9 | 3.7 |
| NYJ | -0.06 | 5 | 40.0% | 5 | 0.30 | 2 | 4.0 |
| SF | -0.05 | 6 | 43.9% | 9 | 0.33 | 4 | 6.3 |
| NO | -0.04 | 7 | 39.5% | 3 | 0.39 | 18 | 9.3 |
| BUF | -0.04 | 8 | 45.8% | 16 | 0.35 | 5 | 9.7 |
Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (RB Rushing)
Team Defense | RB Rush NEP/C | Rank | RB Rush SR% | Rank | Adj. ruFDP/C | Rank | Avg. Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | -0.13 | 1 | 33.9% | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 2.0 |
| ATL | -0.11 | 2 | 36.8% | 5 | 0.49 | 2 | 3.0 |
| NE | -0.10 | 3 | 34.4% | 3 | 0.49 | 4 | 3.3 |
| TEN | -0.06 | 5 | 37.5% | 7 | 0.52 | 6 | 6.0 |
| JAC | -0.04 | 10 | 33.3% | 1 | 0.53 | 8 | 6.3 |
| CLE | -0.05 | 8 | 36.3% | 4 | 0.55 | 12 | 8.0 |
| CHI | -0.07 | 4 | 39.3% | 12 | 0.54 | 11 | 9.0 |
Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Receiving)
Team Defense | RB Adj. FP/Tgt | Rank | WR Adj. FP/Tgt | Rank | TE Adj. FP/Tgt | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 1.44 | 31 | 1.50 | 27 | 1.59 | 30 |
| ATL | 1.43 | 30 | 1.32 | 6 | 1.33 | 16 |
| BAL | 1.07 | 15 | 1.05 | 1 | 1.22 | 3 |
| BUF | 1.03 | 9 | 1.35 | 13 | 1.27 | 10 |
| CAR | 0.98 | 6 | 1.32 | 7 | 1.31 | 14 |
| CHI | 1.56 | 32 | 1.34 | 9 | 1.28 | 11 |
| CIN | 1.02 | 7 | 1.54 | 29 | 1.46 | 27 |
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
