Fantasy Football: 5 Sleeper Wide Receivers to Target

We continue our sleeper series by tabbing five wide receivers who are worth targeting in your fantasy football leagues.

Cashing in on sleeper wideouts can lead to quality flex options for most of the season. Heck, some players even hold the potential to become a true WR1 in fantasy such as Puka Nacua finishing as WR4 in half-point per reception (PFF) leagues last season after carrying a 273rd overall average draft position (ADP), via FantasyPros.

There's real potential to grab a league-winner with the right sleeper pick. Let's look at five wideouts that feel overlooked for the 2024 season. We will only look at receivers who fall on the outside of the top 100 picks in ADP.

5 Wide Receiver Sleepers for Fantasy Football

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (118.7 ADP)

The Jacksonville Jaguars let Calvin Ridley walk in free agency and replaced him with their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Brian Thomas Jr. from the LSU Tigers.

Thomas had a breakout season with LSU last year, recording 1,177 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. He was a big-play machine with 17.3 receiving yards per catch. Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave Thomas a 75.1 receiving grade, which is nothing special ranking 165th out of 968 qualifying players in college football.

Still, Thomas has elite upside after posting the second-highest athleticism score among his position group for the 2024 NFL Draft. He was an elite deep threat by all accounts in 2023 as 25.3% of his targets came on throws of 20+ yards. Thomas also posted 670 of his 1,177 yards on deep targets while logging a 99.9 grade on 20+ yard targets.

Trevor Lawrence posted a 96.6 passing grade on 20+ yard throws in 2023. Pair that with Thomas' top tier marks as a deep target, and now, we're cooking. There's a reason that Thomas holds a receiving yards prop of 750.5, per FanDuel's receiving props.

Thomas seems to be a good fit in this offense, and the workload he's replacing is extremely enticing. Ridley had the 14th-most targets and the 8th-most air yards a season ago, per PlayerProfiler. Thomas is stepping into Ridley's spot, which should mean a pretty busy role for the rookie.

Getting a fit like this with a healthy workload is too good to pass on considering Thomas' ADP at WR48 and 119th overall.

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (140.7 ADP)

Pinning down the top receiver for the Green Bay Packers is one of this offseason's greatest challenges. It's the equation that every fantasy manager is hoping to solve. Jordan Love was QB5 in half PPR in 2023; finding his favorite target holds obvious upside. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds, Love has a 3,825.5 passing yards prop.

The debate is between Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs. Reed holds the lowest overall ADP at 84th while Watson is close behind at 103rd. Watson has dealt with injuries in back-to-back seasons and played in only nine contests last season. Reed seems bound for negative touchdown regression after logging eight touchdowns despite finishing 82nd in the league in snap share.

Wicks has been consistently tabbed as a potential breakout, which comes with good reason as he finished with a higher snap share than Reed over the final six games of the season. Doubs feels a bit overlooked here, though.

He led the team with a 17.6% target share and 19.3% weighted target share last season. When Watson was healthy, Doubs still led with a 18.0% target share from Week 4 to Week 13 while carrying a team-high 81.8% snap share among his position during the span.

Despite his clear role in this offense, Doubs sits well behind Reed and Watson with a 141st overall ADP. There's little risk involved, so I'll happily take the Packers' top target from 2023 this late.

Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers (156.3 ADP)

numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings have the Los Angeles Chargers with the 14th-best pass offense. This isn't expected to be the Chargers passing attack of old with Jim Harbaugh taking over as head coach while top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both departed in the offseason.

There isn't much left in this receiving corps, which PFF rated as the league's second-worst unit going into 2024. Second-round rookie Ladd McConkey is currently carrying the lowest ADP among this group at 109th overall. McConkey is gearing up to be the starting slot receiver, meaning heavy snap shares in 11 personnel. However, Harbaugh usually brings a run-heavy offense, so how often will we even see 11 personnel?

Once again, the less "flashy" option is being overlooked. Josh Palmer had the third-highest target share (17.2%) on the team in 2023. He logged the second-highest target share (20.3%) when Williams was out of the lineup, as well.

We got a small sample size of what the room could look like late in the 2023 season as Allen missed four games. During the span, Palmer carried a team-best 20.4% target share over three contests. His 18.1 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game during the span wasn't too shabby, either, per NFL's Next Gen Stats.

This is some pretty solid evidence for Palmer as WR1 on the Chargers, yet his ADP is 156th overall -- nearly 40 spots behind McConkey. We know what we are getting in Palmer, and chances are one of these wideouts will surpass their ADP with Justin Herbert slinging the rock. I'd rather take my chance with the veteran that carried a high target share in 2023 compared to the unknown rookie.

Ja'Lynn Polk, New England Patriots (177.7 ADP)

The New England Patriots' receiving room is expected to be even worse than the Chargers. New England ranked last in PFF's wide receiving room rankings.

There isn't near as much hope about the Pats' passing offense, though, holding the worst schedule-adjusted rating via numberFire. Much of this has to do with the quarterback room, which is a battle between Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye. Brissett has been mediocre, at best, throughout his career, and Maye has been consistently referred to as a "developmental" project. Either way, it's not looking too good for New England's receiving corps from a fantasy perspective.

The good thing is we are dealing with very high ADPs when it comes to the Pats' receivers. The rookie Ja'Lynn Polk is likely carrying the highest ceiling. This offense completely lacks a WR1, and Polk has the chance to become just that.

He posted a solid 67.8 PFF receiving grade in the preseason and excelled on targets of 10 to 19 yards (92.7 grade).

Polk's best chance for a breakout likely lies with Maye becoming the starter, for the North Carolina Tar Heels product posted a 97.1 passing grade on passes of 20+ yards. Polk posted a 96.7 receiving grade on targets between 10 to 19 yards and a 99.9 grade on 20+ yard targets in his final collegiate season. He could become a major deep ball threat as the season advances, especially if Maye is under center.

Ultimately, Polk carrying a 178th overall ADP could be the last pick for many fantasy football managers. Getting a potential WR1 in any offense this late is worth the low risk.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (179.0 ADP)

Adonai Mitchell is drawing most of the "sleeper" attention on the Indianapolis Colts, but what about the holdover that posted over 700 receiving yards in his rookie season? Josh Downs had a WR86 ADP ahead of 2023 and finished as WR46. The potential is still there with Downs' WR67 and 179th overall ADP entering the upcoming season.

The biggest trick is forecasting what the Colts' passing offense will look like with a healthy Anthony Richardson. This passing unit isn't doomed, though, as numberFire's 14th-lowest schedule-adjust pass offense. Overall, Indy is expected to be pretty similar to last season -- as suggested by their 8.5 win total (9-8 in 2023).

Richardson managed to deliver only two full starts in his rookie season due to injuries. Richardson posted a decent 0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) and a shaky 56.5 passing grade in the small sample size.

Downs' target share was solid at 17.8% when Richardson played (second-highest), and he totaled 5.3 targets per contest during the span. The former Tar Heel posted his best receiving grade on 20+ yard targets (96.0), and Richardson had his best passing grade on 20+ yard throws (88.8). This bodes some confidence for where Downs could stand with Richardson as starting signal-caller.

Efficiency just bodes more confidence with Downs logging a team-best 7.4 RecYOE per game when Richardson started in 2023. Downs also finished with the 19th-most yards after catch (YAC) and 18th-highest route win rate in his rookie season.

Almost everything is shaping up for Downs to finish well above his ADP once again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.