Fantasy Football: 5 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Exploit in Week 13

Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.

For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.

Each Friday I'll be listing out the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Tyreek Hill, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.

But how do we know what to look for?

First, the numberFire (nF) Player Matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions.

Then, we dive deeper into the specific cornerbacks. Pro Football Focus (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.

For receivers, the three key statistics we'll be citing are Target Share, average depth of target (aDOT), and Net Expected Points (NEP). For cornerbacks, we're mainly looking at the percentage of targets caught (REC%), Forced Incompletions per Target (FI%), and the opposing quarterbacks' NFL Passer Rating against them.

Projections and rankings via numberFire. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Week 13 Receiver-Cornerback Matchups

Keenan Allen (LAC)-New England Patriots

numberFire Projection: 15.7 points (WR3)

• 87.9 Yards
• 7.6 Receptions (11.1 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• -105 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

Keenan Allen is the second-highest-scoring WR in fantasy this season, behind only Tyreek Hill. He leads the NFL with a 33% target share and has garnered 46 targets over the last three weeks (15.3 per game). He nearly has as many games with more than 100 yards (5) than games with less than 100 yards (6).

He's the definition of a lineup lock, but I'd implore you to consider him in DFS and in betting markets this week.

This week, Allen's Los Angeles Chargers travel east to take on the New England Patriots.

New England ranks in the top half of the league for fewest adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers for the season, but they've been getting torched of late. In the last seven weeks, the Pats are bottom-seven in target rate, yards per route run (YPRR), and average depth of target (aDOT) allowed.

They've let up the sixth-most raw fantasy points to the position over that span.

Nevertheless, New England continues to play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, per NextGenStats.

For as good as Allen has been this season, he's at his best against man. Against man coverage, Keenan has the eighth-highest PFF receiving grade (87.4) and ranks second with 27 receptions -- all while maintaining a stellar 2.19 YPRR.

Allen has lined up in the slot 58% of the time this season, per PFF. That would match him up with Myles Bryant (57.3 PFF coverage grade). Byrant has let up a 106.2 passer rating when targeted in the slot. Overall, he's allowed 84.3% of targets to be caught, the fourth-highest clip among corners with at least 100 coverage snaps.

However, last week Allen played a majority of his snaps out wide for the first time all season. If that were to continue this week, he'd draw some combination of J.C. Jackson (35.0 PFF coverage grade) and Jonathan Jones (64.5). Jackson would be a juicy matchup given his poor play and history with the Chargers, but both corners are allowing more than 13 yards per reception, so it's tasty all around.

No one on this Patriots team can match up with Allen. There's no question you're starting him in season-long fantasy, but with this matchup, he's worth a look in DFS and betting markets in Week 13.

Christian Kirk (JAX)-Mike Hilton (CIN)

numberFire Projection: 10.8 points (WR16)

• 66.2 Yards
• 4.7 Receptions (7.3 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 50.5 Yards
• O/U 4.5 Receptions
• +180 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

Although Calvin Ridley has been the one commanding headlines for the last two weeks, Christian Kirk is my Jacksonville Jaguars receiver of choice in Week 13.

Even with Zay Jones' return and Ridley's hot stretch, Kirk continues to be heavily involved. Over the last two games, he's run a route on 89% of dropbacks and commanded a 19% target share. He's gotten unlucky with a -0.8% catch rate over expectation (compared to Ridley's +22.7%), but that's bound to flip at some point. It might happen this week against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincy has allowed an above-average 1.42 adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs. They've let up the seventh-most passing yards per game and the eighth-highest passing success rate, so this isn't a secondary to fear. They're 22nd in numberFire's scheduled-adjusted pass defense metrics for a reason.

The Bengals play man coverage at an above-average 33.7% rate (11th), per NextGenStats. That sets up nicely for Kirk. Against man, Kirk has the 18th-best PFF receiving grade (79.7). He's posted 20.5 yards per reception (14th) and 3.32 YPRR (13th) in the split while commanding eight more targets than any other Jacksonville receiver.

Kirk lines up in the slot nearly 66% of the time, so he should see a ton of Mike Hilton this week. Hilton's 67.1 coverage grade leads all Cincinnati corners, but he's far from lockdown. His 1.14 yards per coverage snap and 6.0 coverage snaps per target are middle-of-the-pack marks compared to other slot defenders.

In a man-heavy matchup, the uber-efficient Kirk should thrive and bounce back following a month of quiet performances. He's a rock-solid WR2 with upside for this MNF affair.

George Pickens (PIT)-Arizona Cardinals

numberFire Projection: 9.0 points (WR27)

• 54.4 Yards
• 3.7 Receptions (6.0 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 44.5 Yards

In their first game without (former) offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Pittsburgh Steelers eclipsed 400 yards of total offense for the first time in nearly 60 games.

That didn't do much for George Pickens -- 3 receptions for 58 yards -- but fear not. He's due to get in on the post-Matt Canada fun, perhaps as early as this week.

Pittsburgh hosts the Arizona Cardinals Sunday in a mouth-watering matchup for WRs. The Cardinals have permitted the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target and the third-most YPRR to opposing wideouts. They've managed to allow the highest catch rate (71.8%) and the highest catch rate over expectation (9.1%), which likely played a role in the recent benching of staring corner Marco Wilson.

It's a great spot for Pickens and Diontae Johnson, but I think Pickens has more upside in this matchup. Arizona plays zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league, per NextGenStats. Against zone, Pickens leads the Steelers in both yards per reception (14.5) and YPRR (1.74).

On top of that, the Cardinals absolutely bleed deep production. They've allowed a league-high 13.5 deep yards per target -- more than a full yard above the next-closest team. Coupled with Arizona's 28th-ranked pressure rate, Kenny Pickett should have ample time to find his big-play machine down the field.

Last week, Kei'Trel Clark (52.0 PFF coverage grade) and Starling Thomas V (56.4) handled a majority of the outside cornerback snaps for the Cards. Both defensive backs have allowed at least 11.5 yards per reception and more than 70% of targets to be caught. They're both running aDOTs north of 10.

This is a lovely spot for Pickens to get back on track after a month of quiet outings. Think of him as a high-end WR3 with top-10 upside at the position.

Josh Downs (IND)-Roger McCreary (TEN)

numberFire Projection: 8.4 points (WR29)

• 48.4 Yards
• 3.8 Receptions (6.3 Targets)

FanDuel Props:

• O/U 51.5 Yards
• O/U 4.5 Receptions
• +250 Any Time Touchdown Scorer

I just can't quit Josh Downs.

The Indianapolis Colts' prized rookie turned in his third straight down performance last week, but the utilization remained elite. Downs came out of Indy's bye seemingly healthier than he was before. Downs played fewer than 25% of snaps in Weeks 9 and 10 due to a knee injury but was up to a 70% snap rate in Week 12.

In Week 12, he wound up running a route on 79% of dropbacks while commanding a career-best 33% target share.

In the nine games where Downs has played at least 60% of snaps, he has drawn 24% of Indy's targets. That's less than Michael Pittman Jr. (30%) but more than enough to give the rookie fantasy relevance.

The matchup is glorious this week as the Colts visit their division rivals, the Tennessee Titans. Tennesee has allowed the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing WRs, and they struggled to contain Downs back in Week 5. In that matchup, Downs was the WR18 in half-PRR. He secured all six of his targets (25% share) for 97 yards.

The Titans have since parted ways with All-Pro safety Kevin Byard, and their pass defense has suffered accordingly. Over the last five weeks, Tennesee has allowed the fourth-highest catch rate (67%), fifth-highest target rate (21.2%), and eighth-most YPRR (1.83) to WRs.

Downs lines up out of the slot 77% of the time, so he'll likely see a ton of Roger McCreary (63.9 PFF coverage grade). McCreary has surrendered 1.14 yards per coverage snap and has allowed a target every 6.4 coverage snaps -- both middle-of-the-pack numbers among defenders with at least 100 slot snaps.

Clearly Gardner Minshew's No. 2 option in the passing game, Downs is in a strong spot to produce against one of the more pass-friendly defenses in the NFL. He's a rock-solid flex with WR2 upside in Week 13.

Greg Dortch (ARI)-Levi Wallace (PIT)

numberFire Projection: 4.8 points (WR55)

• 28.5 Yards
• 2.3 Receptions (3.6 Targets)

With Michael Wilson out the last two weeks, Greg Dortch has enjoyed a 79% snap rate and a 82% route rate. Wilson is out again this week, so expect another heavy workload for Dortch.

Dortch is an intersting case. He had just one catch before Week 11 but has secured nine of 17 targets (23.3% share) for 103 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. That out-of-nowhere production isn't something I'd typically be interested in chasing, but it's not totally out of the blue.

Last year, Dortch had six games with at least a 70% snaps rate. In those games, Dorth commanded a 20.8% target share while averaging 69 yards and 11.9 fantasy points per game.

When he's on the field, Dortch produces. Plain and simple. And he's probably going to play a lot this week, so I'm bullish he can produce even in a (seemingly) tough matchup.

The Steelers are ranked seventh by numberFire's scheduled-adjusted pass defense metric, but they're middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Against wideouts, Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-highest target rate, the sixth-most YPRR, and the fourth-furthest aDOT.

Scheme-wise, the Steelers play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. It's a limited sample, but Dortch has a 78 PFF receiving grade and has averaged 2.06 YPRR against man coverage this season.

Standout rookie Joey Porter Jr. is expected to shadow Marquise Brown, likely leaving Levi Wallace to match up with Dortch. Among corners with at least 100 coverage snaps, Wallace has the 24th-worse PFF coverage grade. He's been targetted the 23rd-most times in the league and let up the 16th-most yards per reception.

The volume should be there for Dortch in an advantageous matchup. Expect him to be busy early and often. As such, he profiles as a sneaky WR3 or flex.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.