Fantasy Football: 4 Zero-RB Running Backs to Target in 2024

There's no one-size-fits-all way to draft a fantasy football team.

If there was -- well, that would make fantasy a lot less complicated and drafting way less fun.

Draft strategies come and go as the landscape changes, but one has become a staple in the fantasy community: Zero-RB.

But what exactly is Zero-RB, and which Zero-RB running backs should you target in 2024?

Let's dive in.

Fantasy points and rankings reference half point-per-reception (0.5 PPR) scoring formats. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats or Pro Football Reference unless otherwise stated.

Defining Zero-RB

The Zero-RB draft strategy has been around for over a decade now, to varying degrees of success.

The premise is simple -- don't draft running backs.

Hence, "Zero-RB."

That isn't to say you shouldn't draft any rushers, but rather you should wait until the middle rounds of your draft to snag your first running back. Instead of using an early-round pick on a back, the idea is to load up on top wide receivers and perhaps get your hands on one of the elite quarterbacks or tight ends.

Later -- while the rest of your league is trying to catch up with your war chest of receivers -- you gobble up running backs, hoping to strike a bullseye with one of your many dart throws.

But why punt on elite rushers?

Running backs get injured more than any other (fantasy-relevant) position, and we have a tougher time projecting who the top backs will be.

Take last season.

Of the 22 running backs take in the first five rounds of 12-team leagues, only 11 (50%) finished as a top-24 player at the position. Seven (32%) weren't even a top-36 running back, while six (27%) missed at least five games.

Compare that to wide receiver, where 16 of 22 (73%) players drafted in the first five rounds finished top-24 at their position. Only two (9%) failed to finish in the top 36 and just three (14%) missed five or more games.

The fickle nature of the position opened the door for six players drafted outside the top 100 overall to finish as top-24 running backs.

Utilizing Zero-RB, you could've started your 2023 draft with Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lamar Jackson, D.J. Moore, and George Kittle in the first five rounds and still have gotten Isiah Pacheco, Raheem Mostert, or Kyren Williams later.

Obviously, that's easier said than done. You still have to know who to take early, and for every Kyren Williams available at pick 257, there's more than a handful of Rashaad Pennys who don't pan out.

But if 2023 was any indication, Zero-RB is alive and well.

You just have to know which running backs to target.

Zero-RB Running Backs to Target

For sake of argument, we'll only be looking at running backs going outside the top 60 picks, according to FantasyPros consensus average draft position (ADP) as of August 6th.

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

ADP: 61.3 (RB21)

Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery is currently being drafted, on average, right outside the first five rounds.

Monty is coming off an RB9 season that saw him average 13.7 fantasy points per game (FP/G). Will he repeat his 2023 output?

Maybe, though his role did shrink after Detroit's bye when Jahmyr Gibbs began to take off.

But his second-half usage was still plenty viable for fantasy, and the Lions' stellar offensive environment still makes Montgomery a worthwhile target for Zero-RB drafters.

From Weeks 10-18 (after Detroit's bye), Montgomery averaged 13 FP/G and was the 11th-highest scoring running back -- even with his snap rate dipping to 41.4%.

Although Gibbs took on a near-60% snap share over the back half of 2023, Monty still out-rushed him and saw near-identical red zone usage. His lack of receiving work caps his upside, but Montgomery's 2.9 red zone rush attempts over the final nine games would've ranked 11th over the full season.

We can expect Gibbs' role to grow in year two, but Montgomery won't be totally phased out. He's in the second year of a three-year, $18 million contract, after all.

With the Lions projected to score the third-most points in 2024 by Jim Sannes' model, the goal line work should be there for the 27-year-old bruiser.

Our NFL projections peg Montgomery for 183.4 fantasy points over a 17-game season, 21st among running backs. That's right in line with his ADP, but the security of his goal-line role on a top offense is what makes him such an intriguing target for Zero-RB builds.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

ADP: 74.0 (RB25)

Last season's Zero-RB poster boy, Raheem Mostert, is once again looking like an intriguing target if you fade the position early.

Despite entering last season with an ADP of 114, the 32-year-old thrived as the Miami Dolphins' lead back, rushing for a league-high 18 touchdowns. He was 10th in rushing yards (1,012), too, propelling him to an RB2 finish in fantasy.

Granted, Mostert was the biggest touchdown overperformer in the NFL, notching 21 total scores compared to 8.8 expected touchdowns, per Brandon Gdula's touchdown regression numbers.

But that touchdown regression is baked into his RB25 ADP. Of last year's top-12 running backs, Mostert has by far the lowest ADP. Joe Mixon (last season's RB5) is the next-closest with an ADP of 43 (RB15).

Yes, Mostert's age is a concern. But he didn't show many signs of dust in 2023. Among players with at least 100 rush attempts, Mostert ranked sixth in rush success rate (48.8%) and third in numberFire's Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play (0.17).

Like Montgomery, Mostert does face some backfield competition from a second year back (De'Von Achane). But, also like Montgomery, Mostert was still effective when the two split time last season. In the seven games both were fully healthy, Mostert averaged 18 adjusted opportunities, 3.6 red zone rushes, and 17.6 FP/G.

You're taking a risk with a 32-year-old running back, but the reward is well-established. A potential top-10 back in the seventh round is a Zero-RB dream.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 109.3 (RB37)

If there's one running back I want to walk away from drafts with in a Zero-RB build, it's Ezekiel Elliott.

The 29-year-old may no longer be one of the league's top backs, but he proved more than capable of producing in fantasy when given the work. He operated as a backup for much of 2023 with the New England Patriots but was thrust into the starting role when Rhamondre Stevenson went down in Week 13.

Zeke enjoyed heavy usage from that point forward, racking up an 83% snap rate and seeing 27.5 adjusted opportunities per game. Even with New England's putrid offense only allowing him 1.3 red zone rush attempts per game from Weeks 13-18, Elliott was fantasy's RB9 (13.3 FP/G) over that final stretch.

This offseason, Zeke returned to the Dallas Cowboys after they let Tony Pollard go and didn't address the position in the draft.

In Dallas, Zeke's only competition out of the backfield is Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman, and Deuce Vaughn. Dowdle has only 96 career carries, Freeman has played for four teams in the last five years, and Vaughn appeared in six games last season.

In other words, the door is wide open for Zeke to be at minimum the primary goal-line back in Dallas. This is a Cowboys team that led the league in scoring last year and is projected to be in the top 10 (25.3 PPG) again this season.

It's also an offense that fed Tony Pollard 60 red zone rush attempts last season, second behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Pollard was the biggest touchdown underperformer in the NFL last season, scoring just six times compared to 10.4 expected by Brandon Gdula's numbers. But even if Zeke doesn't sniff double-digit scores in 2024, he could still contribute in the passing game after commanding a 23.2% target share as a starter in New England. Dak Prescott isn't known for checkdowns, but he did feed Pollard double-digit target shares each of the last two seasons.

Ezekiel Elliott may not have top-five upside anymore, but for a potential goal line back on one of the league's top offenses, he's a staple Zero-RB target available outside the top 100 picks.

J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 141.3 (RB43)

If you're indulging in a Zero-RB build, you're going to have to take some shots to fill the position.

Enter J.K. Dobbins.

Dobbins' talent has never been a question, but he's played just nine games over the past three seasons. Last year, he tore his Achilles in Week 1, resulting in him parting ways with the Baltimore Ravens this offseason.

But it's hard to forget when he averaged 10.6 FP/G while leading all running backs in rush success rate (51.5%), Rushing NEP per play (0.27), and yards per carry (6.0) as a rookie in 2020.

In 2022 -- the only other year he played eight games -- Dobbins again led the position in rush success rate (53.3%) and was top-five in Rushing NEP per play (0.14).

Granted, overcoming an Achilles tear is no small feat, but there's at least a strong history of Dobbins being effective when healthy.

By his own account, Dobbins is 100% entering 2024. Now with the Los Angeles Chargers, the 25-year-old has a clear path to playing time in what's expected to be a run-heavy offense with Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

Though Harbaugh hasn't coached in the NFL since 2014, his San Francisco 49ers were top-10 in rush attempts and yards all four seasons he him at the helm. Harbaugh followed a similar philosophy at Michigan where his Wolverines ranked 117th (out of 133), 120th (out of 130), and 108th (out of 130) in pass rate the past three seasons.

Dobbins isn't the clear-cut RB1 in LA, but the running back room (Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, and Isaiah Spiller) isn't exactly oozing with established talent.

Edwards (ADP: 115) isn't a bad Zero-RB option given the run-heavy scheme either, but J.K. Dobbins' talent and low ADP makes him the Chargers back to target late in drafts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.