Fantasy Football: 3 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target in Week 7
Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.
For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.
Each Friday this piece lists the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Justin Jefferson, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.
numberFire's player matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions. Then, Pro Football Focus' (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.
Projections and rankings come from our NFL projections, which are powered by numberFire. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated. NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Week 7 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups
Diontae Johnson (CAR) vs. Benjamin St-Juste (WAS)
numberFire Projection: 13.7 fantasy points (WR6)
- 77.6 Yards
- 5.8 Receptions (9.5 Targets)
- +155 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
We're back targeting the Washington Commanders' 29th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. This time, it's via Diontae Johnson.
Johnson has caught fire since Andy Dalton took over as the Carolina Panthers' starting quarterback. Over his last four games, Johnson is the WR10 in fantasy points per game. (15.3). He's averaged 6.0 receptions (10th among WRs with multiple games), 10.8 targets (4th), and 76.5 receiving yards (12th) per game. Johnson is also top 10 in target share (29.5%) and air yard share (46%), so we know the utilization is there for big games.
His red zone usage has been highly encouraging, too. Johnson's recorded 3 touchdowns in the last four games, during which he's seen 2 red zone targets per game while maintaining a 34.8% red zone target share.
Though the Panthers are just 26th in passing NEP (numberFire's EPA metric) per play in that stretch, they've shown more of a willingness to air it out with Dalton under center. Over the last four weeks, Carolina ranks 11th in raw pass rate and 16th in PROE (pass rate over expectation).
That sets him up for another high-volume role against Washington's lackluster secondary. The Commanders have been the best matchups for wide receivers on a per-target basis, surrendering a league-high 1.75 fantasy points per target. They've also let up the second most yards per route run (1.96), seventh highest target rate (22.1%), and most touchdowns (10) to the position, according to NextGenStats.
Johnson will spend the bulk of his time matched up with Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil. St-Juste has permitted the fourth most total yards this season, and he's been targeted once every 4.7 coverage snaps -- fifth worst among qualified corners per PFF. Sainristil hasn't been any better, having given up the 12th highest catch rate and 13th highest passer rating when targeted. Both corners have allowed 3 touchdowns this season -- tied for the fourth-most in the NFL.
While the Panthers are sizable underdogs at Washington, this game's high total suggests there should be plenty of offense from both sides. The potential for a negative game script could actually help Johnson's numbers if Carolina is forced to abandon the run early and pass more often than usual.
Looking at Diontae Johnson's odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, I'm most drawn to his +155 anytime touchdown scorer odds with his stellar red zone role and Washington's tendency to give up receiving scores.
Ladd McConkey (LAC) vs. Garrett Williams (ARI)
numberFire Projection: 10.3 fantasy points (WR21)
- 57.7 Yards
- 4.7 Receptions (7.8 Targets)
- +240 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Ladd McConkey hasn't been a statistical world-beater when you look at his overall numbers, but his underlying utilization has been rock-solid. Through McConkey's first five games, the rookie's rocking a 26.4% target share, 33.9% air yard share, and 77.6% route rate -- all of which lead the Los Angeles Chargers.
Granted, that's only translated to 3.8 receptions, 43.8 yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game for one of the most run-heavy offenses in football. But his 1.97 yards per route run suggests Ladd's been effective with the looks he has gotten, and the Chargers quietly posted their highest PROE of the season coming out of their bye last week. Even against a strong secondary. McConkey again led the team in target share (25.8%) and route participation (76.3%).
This week's matchup should be much, much easier. The Chargers will take on the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football, and Arizona has been a plus matchup for receivers all season. They're 28th in adjusted pass defense and bottom 10 in target rate, fantasy points per target, and yards per route run allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Perhaps most impactful for McConkey, however, is their lack of success against the slot. According to Razzball, the Cardinals have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers -- an area Ladd lines up in over 66% of the time, per PFF.
From the slot, McConkey will see plenty of Arizona's Garrett Williams. Williams has been better than expected to open the year, but he's still been targeted once every 5.7 slot coverage snaps and permitted a 91.8 passer rating when targeted from the slot.
It doesn't hurt that Arizona is bottom five in pressure rate, nor that they've played man coverage at an above-average clip this season. Quarterback Justin Herbert has the league's fifth highest passer rating from a clean pocket, while McConkey is sixth among all wide receivers with 3.94 yards per route run against man this season.
McConkey doesn't have any receiving props up at the time of publication, but there's a lot to like about his +250 anytime touchdown odds. As we get closer to Monday, I'll be eyeing his receiving yards prop, too. Our NFL projections project him for 57.7 yards in such a strong matchup.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. Dee Alford (ATL)
numberFire Projection: 8.3 fantasy points (WR37)
- 42.3 Yards
- 4.5 Receptions (6.7 Targets)
- +170 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a fairly consistent fantasy option to open the season, even if his full upside hasn't quite been unlocked yet. JSN has finished between WR30 and WR40 each of the last three weeks, and he's averaging 8.6 fantasy points per game on the year.
Even so, his 20.8% target share ranks second on the Seattle Seahawks -- the pass-happiest team in football. Entering Week 7, Seattle leads the league in both raw pass rate and PROE. They've aired it our early and often under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, so JSN should continue to see plenty of looks this week against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons are a league-average pass defense overall, but they've permitted the sixth most fantasy points to the slot and the 12th highest target rate to receivers overall.
That slot damage has come at the expense of Dee Alford -- someone we targeted for this piece several times last season. Alford's been a soft one-on-one matchup yet again this season, allowing the third-most yards and receptions to slot receivers. Perhaps most notably, Alford has been targeted once every 3.9 slot coverage snaps -- the sixth-highest rate among qualified corners.
Not only does JSN's individual matchup rule, but this may be Week 7's top game environment. It has the week's second highest total (50.5) and ranks first in adjusted pace.
JSN's yardage has been pretty spotty thanks to his 8.6-yard aDOT, but we've seen him rack up receptions in bunches this season. With two games of 8-plus receptions under his belt, this is a spot I'd be interested in diving into the alternate reception markets. Jaxon Smith-Njigba to record at least 7 receptions is available at +220 odds on FanDuel.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.