Fantasy Football: 4 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 2

Regardless of what fantasy football format you are playing, it's vital to keep track of trends around the NFL. Whether it's a player seeing an increase or decrease in usage, a team deploying a different personnel package than usual, or a team changing their schemes on offense or defense, knowing all of these trends can give us an advantage over the field.

Although it's a small sample size with Week 1 in the books, there were quite a few occurrences that are worth noting for fantasy football. Before diving into Week 2, here are some trends to know from the first week of the 2024 NFL season.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 2

Just As Expected... the Chargers Are Running the Ball More

Hiring Jim Harbaugh at head coach and Greg Roman at offensive coordinator had many expecting the Los Angeles Chargers to deploy a more run-centric offense this season. That certainly came to fruition in Week 1 as the Chargers ran the ball 27 times for 176 yards and a touchdown while Justin Herbert attempted only 26 passes, finishing with just 144 yards and a passing score in a double-digit win over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Under offensive coordinator Kellen Moore -- who is now calling plays for the Philadelphia Eagles -- a season ago, the Chargers concluded the year with the eighth-highest pass rate over expected (0.4%). But in Week 1 with Roman calling the shots, Los Angeles had the ninth-lowest pass rate over expected (-7.1%) in the NFL.

J.K. Dobbins led the Chargers' backfield with 135 yards and a score on 10 carries while Gus Edwards was limited to 26 yards on 11 attempts. Both Dobbins and Edwards could remain busy on the ground in Roman's offense -- especially with Herbert coming off a foot injury in training camp.

Beside Herbert's foot ailment, the Chargers becoming more of a run-heavy squad could limit his ceiling in fantasy football this year. While Los Angeles could put the ball in the air more once Herbert and his new pass-catchers get more acclimated as the season progresses, it's clear that Harbaugh and Roman want to control the line of scrimmage on offense -- like many expected.

Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr. Were Rookie WRs With Positive Usage

Everyone was raving about Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in this year's rookie WR class, only for Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr. to have positive performances in Week 1. There was uncertainty surrounding the Buffalo Bills this season following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, but Coleman looks poised for a decent-sized role.

According to NextGenStats, Coleman received the second-highest snap rate (72.4%), highest route rate (88.0%), highest target share (21.7%), second-highest air yards share (28.9%), and second-most yards per route run (2.32) in Buffalo's offense in their season opener. Coleman also garnered 40% of the Bills' red zone targets and the team's lone end zone target, making him a valuable commodity in fantasy football while potentially proving he can the No. 1 option for Josh Allen.

Meanwhile, Thomas led all rookie WRs in yards per route run (2.61) in Week 1 while also notching the second-highest snap rate (76.0%), highest target share (21.1%), and second-highest air yards share (27.1%) en route to hauling in all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown in his debut for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars also moved on from two receivers this offseason, replacing Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones in their passing game. Even though many viewed Thomas as just a vertical weapon for Trevor Lawrence, the first-year wideout out of LSU can be much more than that in Jacksonville's offense.

The Jaguars and Lions Could Be Man-Heavy Defenses Now

On the defensive side of the ball, the Jaguars and the Detroit Lions noticeably deployed man-coverage concepts at a higher rate in Week 1 than they did a season ago. Why is this potentially important in the grand scheme of things?

During the 2023 season, 8 of the 11 defenses with the highest man-coverage rates finished 10th or better in defensive pass success rate.

The fact the Jags ran more man-coverage in Week 1 isn't much of a surprise as new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was with the Atlanta Falcons last year, and they ran man-coverage at the third-highest rate (41.7%). Jacksonville's defense ran man-coverage at the highest rate (57.5%) in their season opener versus the Miami Dolphins, and they ranked 9th in completion percentage over expected allowed (-0.08).

Some may point out that Tua Tagovailoa aired it out for 338 yards against the Jaguars in Week 1, but 80 of those yards came on a deep pass to Tyreek Hill -- who burns everybody -- and Jacksonville still limited Miami's offense to 20 points on the road. Even if you remove last year's 70-point explosion against the Denver Broncos, the Dolphins averaged 27.1 points per game at home, so holding them to 20 points at Hard Rock Stadium is a job well done in Nielsen's debut.

As for the Lions, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn finally has the personnel to call more man-coverage as Detroit added Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, and rookie Terrion Arnold to their secondary. While running man-coverage at the second-highest rate (47.1%) in Week 1, the Lions were ninth in defensive pass success rate (47.1%) against the Los Angeles Rams.

There's a chance the Jaguars and Lions have much-improved pass defenses in 2024 with their man-heavy approaches, which would make them groups to be wary of in fantasy football in certain matchups if they continue to show signs of improvement.

De'Von Achane Excelled in a Receiving Role to Begin the Season

Speaking of Miami's dynamic offense under head coach Mike McDaniel, Hill and Jaylen Waddle showed in Week 1 that they are undoubtedly the top two options in the passing game again. Hill and Waddle combined for 12 receptions, 239 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown while both of them produced 3.89 yards per route run or higher in the come-from-behind win over the Jaguars.

All that being said, second-year back De'Von Achane may have a clear receiving role in the offense now after impressing in his rookie campaign. Achane registered the second-highest target share (19.4%) and the third-most yards per route run (3.45) on the Dolphins in Week 1 as he concluded the contest with seven catches for 76 yards.

Getting more work on passing downs is one way for Achane to be a league-winning back in fantasy football this year. Achane led Miami's RBs in adjusted opportunities (24.0) in their first game of the year following a rookie season where he led the league in rushing yards over expected per attempt (2.87).

Whenever Achane is on the field, McDaniel simply wants to find any way to get him the ball.

The only concern is that Achane seemingly suffered an ankle injury in Week 1, and his status for Thursday's game versus the Bills is unknown, but if Achane is active and ready to go, the speedy running back has become a trustworthy pass-catching option for Tagovailoa, giving him limitless potential in an electric offense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.