Fantasy Football: 4 Sleepers for Week 18
The word "sleeper" gets thrown around a lot in the world of fantasy football, to the point where an actual definition may vary from person to person. In general, in my eyes, sleepers are players who may be flying relatively under the radar in a particular field.
In any case, we all need to find a sleeper from time to time. Whether you're a season-long fantasy football manager looking to roster a potential breakout player before your league-mates, someone playing NFL DFS on FanDuel who needs a spike week from a low-salaried player, or even just a manager in a pinch due to byes or injuries, we have you covered.
Here are some fantasy sleepers who could have a big week this week.
We'll reference our NFL projections. All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 18
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
FanDuel Salary: $6,900
Michael Penix Jr. has a few things working in his favor in Week 18, enough to make him a viable DFS play at his modest $6.9K salary.
For starters, the Atlanta Falcons are still playing for something. A win and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss would hand Atlanta the NFC South crown. That prospect isn't likely, as the Bucs enter as 13.5-point favorites in their matchup against the New Orleans Saints. Nonetheless, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are each slated for a 1:00 p.m. kickoff on Sunday, so it should be all systems go for the Falcons in their final game of the regular season.
Penix and company will draw a soft matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers come in with the second-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense in the NFL. Penix has thrown for north of 200 yards in each of his two starts and our NFL projections expect him to notch 231 passing yards this weekend. Carolina also coughs up the most passing touchdowns per game (2.06). All in all, that's led to them giving up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to QBs.
Atlanta holds a massive 28.0 implied team total for this weekend and it doesn't hurt Penix's stock that Carolina forces the lowest pressure rate. A 200-plus yard and two -- maybe even three -- touchdown day are in the cards for Penix. That's a ceiling we'll want to get in on at his modest salary, and though Penix will draw in some of the masses as a result, he's not expected to be a chalky option at QB.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Salary: $5,900
The Denver Broncos find themself in a win-and-in scenario in Week 18. Luckily for them, the opposing Kansas City Chiefs have already secured a bye and home field advantage for the playoffs, leaving them with nothing to play for this weekend.
Kansas City is expected to rest many of their starters, including key defensive contributors. That could mean big things for Jaleel McLaughlin.
Across Denver's last three games, McLaughlin (31) has out-carried both Audric Estime (23) and Javonte Williams (10). He's been super efficient in this span, turning 31 carries into 174 yards -- good for 5.6 yards per carry. On top of that, he's taken 33.3% of the team's red zone carries in this split.
Not only could McLaughlin exploit a potentially meh Kansas City D, but he could be involved in a positive game script with the Broncos coming in as 10.5-point favorites. Denver should look to run the clock and avoid any and all turnovers, pointing more work in the backfield's direction. McLaughlin is projected to have a mere 1.52% roster rate on FanDuel's Week 18 main slate (per RotoWire), making him a true sleeper play.
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
FanDuel Salary: $5,500
Week 18 is for the rookies, and we should zero in on Blake Corum as a possible play.
The Los Angeles Rams have already clinched the NFC West. They would secure the third seed in the NFC with a win over the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday. A loss and a Tampa Bay win would hand them the fourth seed. While the Rams still have seeding to play for, the team announced that they will rest Matthew Stafford this Sunday and hand the keys to Jimmy Garoppolo.
Kyren Williams figures to take a back seat, too. Head coach Sean McVay said he is "excited about watching Blake Corum get a heavy workload" in Week 18.
Corum will get to go up against a middle-of-the-road Seattle run defense. The Seahawks surrender the sixth-most yards per carry and ninth-most rushing yards to RBs. They're also allowing this position to tally the 12th-most receiving yards per game. In total, they've let up the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to RBs.
Corum averaged 4.3 yards per carry across the three games in which he was handed at least eight rush attempts. It's not hard to like his $5.5K salary, and the value he offers could turn him into a slate-winning play if he gets too overlooked.
Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos
FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Time to circle back to Denver's offense.
Marvin Mims exploded for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 17. The masses might not be reacting enough, as Mims is expected to earn just a 2.7% roster rate on FanDuel's Week 18 main slate.
The reasons to like Mims are pretty clear cut. His team is in a must-win spot against a club that has nothing to play for and will likely rest key defenders as a result. Mims has notched 100 yards and a touchdown in two of his last four games, so it's not as if he hasn't flashed a gaudy ceiling.
To add, he's had awesome market shares down the stretch. In Denver's last two games, Mims has seen an 18.6% target share, 36.0% air yards share, 14.3% red zone target share, and a 50.0% end zone target share. His muted 8.3 aDOT (average depth of target) should keep him involved in a game where the Broncos won't necessarily look to air it out.
With his salary sitting down at $5.6K and a low projected roster rate, we can go back to the well on Mims if need be without it feeling like we are chasing his Week 17 results.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.