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Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 6

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 6

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 6

Bucky Irving Records Career-Best 75 Rushing Yards

Bucky Irving has consistently been on the fantasy football radar as the impressive rookie continues to demand touches in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' backfield. While Irving's 23 snaps in Week 5 were underwhelming, this was still Irving's highest snap rate of the season at 43%. Pair this with Rachaad White being limited at Wednesday's practice with a foot injury, and this could mean a big upcoming performance from the rookie.

While White is still tracking to play, battling a nagging foot injury may be enough to give Irving a few more snaps in Week 6. Plus, Bucky has been the more efficient back anyways -- with 0.31 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), compared to White's 0.00, via NFL's Next Gen Stats. It goes beyond just RYOE/C as Irving has 5.6 yards per carry, compared to White's 3.7; the rookie is the Bucs' leading rusher, holding 247 rushing yards on seven fewer carries than White, who has 187 rushing yards.

Part of Tampa Bay's offensive success -- which includes 25.4 points per game (ninth-most) and the sixth-best schedule-adjusted offense -- has been thanks to the unit's balance. The ground game is the 15th-best adjusted run offense, which is miles better than Tampa 2023's squad logging 3.6 yards per rushing attempt (tied for the fewest). Against the New Orleans Saints, who holds the league's eighth-worst adjusted run defense, the Buccaneers have the tools to rack up rushing yards. The Saints are also surrendering -0.06 RYOE/C (sixth-worst).

In Week 3, Irving recorded 70 rushing yards on only nine carries. He is capable of repeating this kind of efficiency against a weak run defense, and the rookie's touches could continue to increase. Tampa Bay's pony personnel -- 21 personnel with two running backs and one tight end -- only helps Irving's chances of carrying an even higher snap rate.

Our NFL DFS projections have Irving in line for 51.9 rushing yards this week. I believe this total could reach 75-plus rushing yards between the rookie's efficiency, the favorable matchup, and White being limited in practice.

Kirk Cousins Keeps Cooking With Top-5 QB Finish

Kirk Cousins had a game to remember in Week 5, registering a career-high 509 passing yards in the Atlanta Falcons' thrilling overtime win against the Bucs. Not only was this a career-best total, this was also the most passing yards in Atlanta's franchise history.

While over 500 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and 58 passing attempts is far from sustainable for a 36-year-old quarterback, this performance felt different. It took some time for Cousins to find his footing in his new home as he posted -0.05 EPA per dropback (EPA/db) over his first four games. He erupted for 0.37 EPA/db in Week 5, and a QB generating this kind of efficiency on 58 passing attempts is something to behold.

Going into Week 6, Cousins seems to be firmly on the same page with his receiving targets. After shredding the league's 15th-worst adjusted pass defense, he gets an even better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (2nd-worst adjusted pass defense). Cousins carries a passing yards prop of 254.5 for this matchup.

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Oct 13 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Panthers are currently giving up 4.3 yards per carry (11th-fewest), compared to 8.1 yards per passing attempt (6th-most). Sheesh, I wonder which unit the Falcons should key on.

Carolina has given up 268.0 passing yards per game over its last three, and the Panthers just yielded 10.2 yards per passing attempt in Week 5. Cousins should have plenty of time in the pocket, as well, with Carolina holding Pro Football Focus' lowest pass-rush grade.

Our NFL DFS projections have Cousins forecasted for 18.0 fantasy points and the 12th-best finish among quarterbacks. I believe he's capable of much more in this spot. Will he repeat a historic performance? Probably not. But a top-five positional fantasy finish is in the cards. He was Week 5's top fantasy quarterback against a much more challenging pass defense than what he will see in Week 6.

Commanders Log Another 30-Point Game

What a difference one year makes. After producing only 19.4 PPG in 2023 (tied for eighth-fewest), the Washington Commanders are averaging 31.0 PPG this season (the most). Jayden Daniels has taken the league by storm, holding 0.33 EPA/db through five games (first among qualifying players). Not only is Daniels the clear favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (-250), he also holds the fifth-shortest NFL MVP odds (+1100).

After lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 38.0 PPG over their last three games, the Commanders totaling another game of 30-plus points is far from a bold call in my opinion. However, numberFire's NFL projections are forecasting Washington for only 23.5 points this week against the Baltimore Ravens. MasseyRatings has the Commanders' total at 21 points, and its point total line via FanDuel Sportsbook is 22.5.

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While past Ravens defenses left opposing offenses shaking in their boots, that's not the case this season.

The Ravens have allowed 25.2 PPG (seventh-most) and 5.6 yards per play (eighth-most). The unit's weakness has been as clear as day, allowing only 3.1 yards per rushing attempt (fewest), compared to 8.1 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most). The Cincinnati Bengals posted 38 points, 371 passing yards, and 8.8 yards per pass attempt in Week 5.

The Commanders hold the highest rush-play percentage in the NFL, which causes some concern. However, their passing attack is more than capable of taking over and owns a clip of 8.5 yards per passing attempt (second-most). We've already mentioned Daniels' absurd efficiency thus far, and the outstanding rookie recorded 254 passing yards and 0.68 EPA/db while completing 21 of 23 passes (91.3%) when Washington was forced to pass in Week 3 against the Bengals. If Washington can't get the run going, Daniels can carry the load through the air.

Baltimore has given up the most deep yards at 789; the second-most is 661 -- that's a huge margin. Daniels boasts a 94.2 PFF pass grade on attempts of 10-19 yards and a 72.0 pass grade on attempts of 20-plus yards. The Commanders also have the fifth-best pass block grade, so they can fend off the Ravens' ninth-best pass rush grade.

The bottom line: Washington may have to score in different ways this weekend, but the passing attack is capable of carrying this team to another 30-point showing.

J.K. Dobbins Fails to Log More Than 40 Rushing Yards

After allowing 26 points in Week 1, the Denver Broncos' defense has dominated by giving up only 11.8 PPG over the last four games. The unit is now the second-best adjusted defense, including the top adjusted pass defense and sixth-best adjusted run defense. Denver is letting up only 4.4 yards per play (second-fewest).

Week 6's matchup brings an inefficient offense to Denver, with the Los Angeles Chargers holding the eighth-worst schedule-adjusted offense. The Bolts are mustering up only 17.0 PPG (fifth-fewest), 263.8 yards per contest (fourth-fewest), and 4.9 yards per play (ninth-fewest). As the 35.5-point game total suggests, this one's probably going to be ugly.

The complete lack of balance from L.A. is probably the offense's biggest concern. As expected, coach Jim Harbaugh has pounded the rock, leading to the second-highest rush rate. The Chargers boast a mark of 4.4 yards per carry (15th-most) compared to 6.5 yards per passing attempt (10th-fewest). Even more concerning, Los Angeles has logged only 58.0 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry over its last two games.

This has led to some poor performances from running back J.K. Dobbins, who is averaging 38.0 rushing yards per contest over the last two, compared to his 133.0-yard average through the first two games. He went from 5.16 RYOE/C over the first two weeks to -1.92 since Week 3. The first couple spike performances from Dobbins didn't seem sustainable, and that's been exactly the case.

Dobbins is projected 71.8 rushing yards this week, per our numbers, but this is far from a good matchup. There isn't much debate on what to key on when facing this offense, and the Broncos are giving up only 4.2 yards per carry (eighth-fewest) and -0.07 RYOE/C (sixth-best).

After failing to reach 10.0 fantasy points in half-PPR leagues over his last two games, Dobbins seems in store for another deflating performance. Give me the Bolts' back to be at 40 rushing yards or fewer on Sunday.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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