Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 5

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 5

Jerry Jeudy Records 20+ Fantasy Points

Through four weeks of the regular season, any matchup involving the Washington Commanders is screaming fantasy points. Washington holds the league's top mark in schedule-adjusted offense while sitting last in adjusted defense ratings, per numberFire. The secondary has been especially bad, ranking last in schedule-adjusted pass defense while allowing 0.30 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), via NFL's Next Gen Stats.

The Cleveland Browns are the next team in line to face off with the Commanders' stumbling pass defense. However, our DFS projections aren't all in on Cleveland's pass offense as Deshaun Watson is 14th in projected FanDuel points (FDP) among QBs while Amari Cooper (19th-most projected points) and Jerry Jeudy (28th-most projected points) are pretty far down the totem pole.

It's with good reason given the Browns are carrying the third-worst schedule-adjusted pass offense. Watson's struggles are continuing with -0.28 EPA/db paired with Cleveland holding Pro Football Focus' second-worst pass block grade. If Watson even shows a glimpse of his former self this season, facing Washington is the safest bet.

Among his targets, Jeudy has been the most efficient. Cooper has a -16.0% catch rate over expectation (CROE) while logging -33.4 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per contest. Meanwhile, Jeudy has a 4.5% CROE and -0.6 RecYOE. He's been pretty darn good over his last three games, logging a 8.4% CROE and 2.9 RecYOE. Most importantly, Jeudy is leading the team with 57.3 receiving yards per game and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 10.3 yards during the span. His 85.7% route percentage is nearly on par with Coopers' 87.3%, as well.

The Commanders' defense is no stranger to giving up big plays, allowing 7.9 yards per passing attempt (4th-most) while holding the 10th-worst mark in yards allowed per deep target. Jeudy has been Cleveland's big-play man with 10.9 yards per catch. Someone on this passing offense has to perform against Washington, and I like Jeudy's chances.

We can also get excellent value here with Jeudy projected only 9.4 FDP and 54.5 receiving yards for Sunday. A spike performance could be imminent with Jeudy pushing for a 20+ point fantasy outing.

Ray Davis Finds the End Zone

Prior to the season, many expected the Buffalo Bills to utilize rookie running back Ray Davis in the red zone. That hasn't been the case yet with Davis holding a measly 8.0% red zone rushing attempt share while Josh Allen (36.0%) and James Cook (32.0%) are taking the lion's share. Heck, even third-string back Ty Johnson holds a 20.0% share, although most of this is coming late in blowout games.

Davis has received two red zone carries, one of which came on the 11-yard line in Week 1. He scored his first touchdown in Week 3 thanks to a carry on the three-yard line. Buffalo finally gives the rookie a carry within the five and what happens? He scampers into the end zone.

As usual, the Bills will probably pound the rock in Week 5 as they are logging 27.8 rushing attempts per contest (13th-most). This took a hit in Week 4, too, thanks to a negative game script in the blowout loss against the Baltimore Ravens. The attempts should be up on Sunday against the Houston Texans, who hold the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense while opponents are logging 4.7 yards per carry (eighth-most).

Shifting our focus back to Davis, he is averaging 7.7 rushing attempts per game over the last three -- not far behind Cook's 10.3 during the span. Davis' -0.65 RYOE/C is alarming while Cook is holding 0.09 RYOE/C for the season. However, excluding 3.59 RYOE/C in Week 2, Cook is logging -0.90 RYOE/C. Davis' number is also brought down from -1.23 last week, but the entire team totaled -0.76 RYOE/C; no one could run on the Ravens. We also saw a promising 0.48 RYOE/C from Davis in Week 3. Simply put, Cook has lacked efficiency in three of four games while Davis produced only two weeks ago.

Of course, Allen holding the highest red zone rushing share is always a concern here. Our projections have Davis in line for 0.11 rushing touchdowns, which isn't the most promising number in the world.

But this is what makes it a bold prediction. There is some promise for Davis in the red zone after the Bills deployed the rookie back in Week 3, leading to his first career touchdown. Week 4 was pretty much a crapshoot all around with only four red zone snaps in the loss at Baltimore.

Leaning on Week 3's results and Houston's struggling run defense, I'm willing to take a swing on Davis to score a touchdown.

Kyren Williams Doesn't Surpass 50 Rushing Yards

The Los Angeles Rams' Kyren Williams has the second-highest snap share (86.6%), the fourth-highest opportunity share (82.1%), and the fourth-most carries (73) at his position, according to PlayerProfiler. Our projections are giving Williams the third-highest rushing total (82.3) for Week 5, and his rushing yard prop is set at 80.5.

Despite the impressive usage, Williams could be in store for a disappointing week. He's not immune to recording 50 or fewer rushing yards as Williams failed to surpass 50 yards in Week 1 and Week 2. I believe we will see more of the same on Sunday.

The Rams are playing host to the Green Bay Packers. This defense was just shredded for 31 points while Sam Darnold totaled 275 passing yards in Week 4. This could be Los Angeles' path to success, not the ground game.

Green Bay has the 15th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense compared to the 4th-best adjusted run defense. This continues to check out elsewhere with the Packers allowing an alarming 7.8 yards per passing attempt (6th-most) compared to giving up 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (13th-fewest) and 109.3 rushing yards per game (11th-fewest). The unit fared well against the Minnesota Vikings last week, allowing only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt.

While Williams is getting plenty of work, this rushing attack is far from efficient. In fact, the Rams are recording 3.7 yards per carry (seventh-fewest) and 88.3 rushing yards per contest (fifth-fewest). Williams also holds -10.9 RYOE per game and -0.59 RYOE/C. The passing game, even without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, is far more promising with 7.5 yards per passing attempt (14th-most) and 224.3 passing yards per game (8th-most).

Week 5's matchup against Green Bay's defense is encouraging L.A. to get away from its inefficient run game by airing it out. A negative game script isn't out of the picture, either, as the Packers are three-point favorites. Give me Williams to go way under his 80.5 rushing yards prop while turning in a disappointing fantasy performance.

Anthony Richardson Produces Top-5 Fantasy Finish

Anthony Richardson has been a wild ride for fantasy managers thus far. He began the season with 27.1 fantasy points (fourth-most in Week 1) but followed that up with only 12.9 and 7.1 points; both marks were outside the top-20 QBs. Then, Richardson took part in only 13 snaps due to a hip injury last week.

Fortunately, he's seemed to dodge anything too serious, as Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reported following Sunday's game. Richardson also showed up to Thursday's practice with pads on. His outlook for Week 5 is looking positive, and managers better keep their fingers crossed that he plays.

Richardson has a juicy matchup ahead against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who is giving up 27.3 PPG (third-most) and 380.0 yards per contest (third-most). The value is there with Richardson holding a $7,300 FanDuel salary (12th-highest) this week, Jacksonville currently carries the third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense while surrendering 8.0 yards per passing attempt (third-most).

The Indianapolis Colts' passing offense has done a great job of hitting big plays with 8.0 yards per passing attempt (sixth-most), and they have a pretty special deep ball threat right now in Alec Pierce -- who is averaging 23.4 yards per catch and 14.5 RecYOE per game. The Jaguars' secondary has given up the third-most deep yards this season, and Richardson has thrown some beautiful deep balls this season. Big plays only further the narrative for a huge fantasy outing.

The Colts' trio of receivers -- Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Pierce -- are all in the positive of RecYOE per contest. The offensive line also holds PFF's 5th-best pass block grade while Jacksonville has the 10th-lowest pass rush grade. Richardson should have the tools and time in the pocket to excel in Week 5. In his brief appearance last week, the second-year signal-caller logged 1.14 EPA/db, and he recorded 0.13 EPA/db in Week 1. Even with some inconsistencies, Richardson is still fully capable of turning in some monster performances.

Assuming he plays on Sunday, common sense would tell you Indianapolis will try to avoid running Richardson. However, rushing touchdowns are still in the picture when considering his 28.6% red zone rushing attempt share (2.0 red zone carries per game). The Jags are also in the bottom half of rushing touchdowns allowed per game.

Richardson should be in fantasy lineups for his clash with Jacksonville. A top-five weekly fantasy finish is in the cards, just like Richardson did in Week 1.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.