Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 5

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you only play 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you four bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2023 NFL season.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 5

Mac Jones Will Finish as a Top-12 QB

The New England Patriots are straight up not having a good time this season. At 1-3 in the fiercely competitive AFC East, the Pats' season is already on the brink of being effectively over. And despite starting fresh with Bill O'Brien as their offensive coordinator, Mac Jones has not been getting the job done this season.

For fantasy purposes, Jones has finished outside of the top-20 scoring quarterbacks in each of the past three weeks -- even finishing as the QB33 in Week 4 after the Patriots yanked him from the game. It's been pretty bleak, but things could turn around this week as the Patriots host the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints' defense has been pretty solid so far in 2023, but it's fair to question whether their performances have been a product of their soft schedule to open the year. The Saints have mostly played against bottom-half offenses, and they held down a banged-up Green Bay Packers offense in a sloppy-weather Week 3 game. The jury is still out as to whether they're as good as they look on paper, but for now, numberFire's projections have Jones finishing as the fantasy QB18 out of 20 slate-eligible starters in Week 5.

A lot needs to go right for Jones, who is not a rushing threat, to put up a top-12 finish in fantasy, but we have actually seen it already this year -- Jones finished as the QB2 in Week 1 as the Patriots clawed their way back into the game against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's within his range of outcomes, as bad as the past few weeks have looked.

The Pats' offensive line was a major problem against the Dallas Cowboys' ferocious pass rush in Week 4 but could stand up a little better against the Saints' average pass rush in Week 5. The Saints have generated pressure on 21.6% of drop backs, which is about league average this season. Considering the opponents they've played -- including sack-takers like Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, and Baker Mayfield -- we might expect that number to look a little better than it actually does.

The theory here is that Jones may be better than his poor last three games otherwise indicate, while the Saints' strong defensive performances this season have been a product of playing against poor offenses. If things play out that way in Foxboro this weekend, Jones could put up a top-12 fantasy finish at the quarterback position.

The Vikings Will Beat the Chiefs

What's bolder than predicting the reigning Super Bowl champions to drop a game to a 1-3 team?

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds for Week 5, but I like the Vikings this week.

The Chiefs have looked surprisingly mortal so far this season, starting with their opening-game loss to the Detroit Lions. They emerged victorious in Week 4 to secure their third straight victory of the year, but it took four quarters of back-and-forth dueling with the struggling New York Jets. We've grown accustomed to Kansas City's offense looking like a dynamo, so KC sitting just ninth in points scored feels pretty meh by their standard.

On the flip side, the Vikings' offense has been quite impressive this year -- except for a serious tendency to trip over their own feet.

Minnesota's offense ranks third in the league in yards per play (6.2) and has been moving the ball with relative ease compared to the rest of the league. The problem? They can't stop turning the ball over. Their 11 turnovers lead the NFL, with a whopping -- and NFL-worst -- 7 of those coming on lost fumbles. Those turnovers have cost them a lot of points. Minnesota's 90 total points scored is just 16th-best in the league, despite their otherwise efficient offense.

Turnovers can be somewhat fluky, and we should expect the Vikings' offense to work out their fumbling problems over the course of the season. And if they sort those issues out this week, they have a real shot of taking down the reigning champs.

Breece Hall Will Establish His RB1 Candidacy

The New York Jets made it pretty clear this offseason that running back Breece Hall would be eased back into things after suffering an ACL injury during his rookie campaign. They signed veteran Dalvin Cook during training camp to help shoulder the load while Hall continued to work back up to full speed, and the two have split the running back opportunities almost down the middle.

But the Jets' season is slipping away -- despite their impressive performance against the Chiefs last week -- and it's becoming clear that it's time for them to unleash Hall.

The explosive sophomore back has performed substantially better than his veteran counterpart so far this year, even if Hall hasn't been fully healthy. A simple scan of their box scores is sufficient to illustrate the difference between the two players.

It makes sense that the Jets want to play it safe with their star running back, but to the naked eye, it sure looks like he's ready to handle a full workload again. He's not just out-pacing his teammate, but according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, he has also averaged 3.24 rushing yards over expectation per attempt this year, trailing only De'Von Achane's league-best mark.

In Week 5, it may not even matter that he's still splitting carries with Cook -- Hall is going to finish the week looking like a top-12 fantasy running back.

The Jets have the privilege of taking on the Denver Broncos league-worst defense in Week 5 -- the same defense that helped Achane announce his arrival to the league in Week 3. The Broncos followed up their Week 3 drubbing by allowing the Chicago Bears' backfield to rush for more than 150 yards, making Denver a perfect spot for Hall to show off his big-play tendencies.

On the season, Denver has allowed an average of 41.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs -- by far the most in the league. It's setting up to be a smash spot for Hall, and a big performance here could be the evidence the Jets' coaching staff needs to hand the keys over to him as their lead back going forward.

Dallas Goedert Will Be a Top-12 Tight End

If you drafted Dallas Goedert in fantasy football, you're probably feeling pretty bad about that decision right now.

The Philadelphia Eagles' tight end started the year off with a donut outing against the New England Patriots and has averaged 5.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game in the three games since. It's been a rather harsh crash back down to earth after his strong 2022 campaign, during which he finished inside the top 13 players at the position in all but two of the weeks he played.

But there have still been some silver linings to his profile in 2023. Goedert has run an impressive 140 routes so far this season, the second-most among all tight ends. His 19 targets are tied for the 13th-most at the position. Given that Goedert drew just a single target in Week 1, fantasy managers can at least hang their hats on his solid 6.0 targets per game over the last three weeks.

The real issue for Goedert this season has been just how well his teammates are playing. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are playing outstanding football this year, with Brown dominating the Eagles' targets at a rate we didn't see in 2022. Brown's 43 targets dwarf Smith's 29, while Goedert's 19 pale in comparison. The distribution of opportunities was much more even in 2022, but it could take a lot for Goedert to work his way back into the picture given just how well his competition for targets is currently playing.

Fortunately for Goedert, the Eagles have a tough matchup with the Los Angeles Rams on the docket for Week 5.

The Rams have kind of put the clamps on opposing wideouts so far this season despite playing against talented receivers like D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ja'Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins. Of that group, only Chase has exceeded 100 receiving yards against the Rams, and Chase's strong day came mostly as an underneath receiver while Joe Burrow was under duress. Likewise, the Rams' run defense has held up surprisingly well this year, with only the San Francisco 49ers' dominant ground game finding success against them so far.

Over the past season and a half, the Eagles have been one of the most malleable offenses in the league. When the run game isn't working, they lean on their talented receivers. When the receivers get bottled up, they chew up defenses on the ground. So what happens if the receivers are covered and the ground game isn't able to average 6.2 yards per carry? Quick passes to the tight end.

Despite playing against only George Kittle as a tight end of note so far this season, the Rams have allowed the eighth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends in 2023. Their defense has quieted opposing wideouts and running backs but could have some vulnerability when it comes to matching up with tight ends. If any team in the league is equipped to not only identify that weak spot but also exploit it, it's the Eagles.

With Goedert running as many routes as he has so far this season, it's only a matter of time before he has a strong fantasy performance. That performance will come this weekend against the Rams.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.