Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 4

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 4

Andy Dalton Reaches 300+ Passing Yards Yet Again

The Carolina Panthers' move to name Andy Dalton as the starting quarterback over Bryce Young immediately paid off in Week 3, for the veteran pitched for 316 passing yards and three touchdowns while logging 0.31 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), via NFL's Next Gen Stats. While the Panthers turning in another 30+ point performance is unlikely as numberFire's sixth-worst offense in power rankings, Dalton could repeat an outstanding performance against his former team, the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincy is reeling with an 0-3 record while carrying numberFire's fourth-worst defense. The pass defense looked to be a strength in the early going, but the Washington Commanders just totaled 248 passing yards and 9.9 yards per attempt in Week 3's loss. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels posted an absurd 0.68 EPA/db in the matchup. The Bengals now have numberFire's fourth-worst pass defense and are giving up 0.15 EPA/db on the season (fourth-worst).

Dalton will be short one wideout as Adam Thielen will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury. However, Diontae Johnson just posted 122 receiving yards with a team-high 14 targets. First-round rookie Xavier Legette will likely see his workload increase following Thielen's injury, and he logged 6.1 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) in Week 3 while totaling 42 yards on two catches.

We just saw Cincinnati get shredded by the deep ball in Week 3, and Dalton posted a 93.3 PFF pass grade on 20+ yard targets a week ago. Johnson and Legette both showed their ability to generate big plays in Week 3. The Bengals currently have the 5th-highest mark in deep yards allowed per target (13.5) and the 10th-highest mark in yards allowed per passing attempt (7.0).

Adding to the concern, Cincy has struggled to put pressure on the QB with the fifth-worst pass rush grade. Meanwhile, Carolina touts the fourth-best PFF pass block grade.

Dalton only has a passing yard prop of 231.5 and is projected 245.7 yards by our DFS projections. We could see the vet go way over his prop, reaching 300+ passing yards (+490) similar to last week.

Roschon Johnson Reaches 75+ Rushing Yards

The "massive offensive upgrades" for the Chicago Bears have yet to pay off, for they are logging 17.7 points per game (11th-fewest) and 249.3 yards per contest (3rd-fewest). Chicago could finally flash some improvements with a favorable matchup this week against the Los Angeles Rams, who have numberFire's second-worst defense, second-worst pass defense, and third-worst run defense.

Rookie QB Caleb Williams has yet to find his footing with a dreadful -0.34 EPA/db through three games. Yet, the Bears let Williams make 52 passing attempts in Week 3, part of which was due to a negative game script (trailed 14-3 at half). Horrible numbers from running back D'Andre Swift hasn't helped the cause either, for he has totaled -2.25 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C). It's safe to say things have not gone as planned in the Windy City.

After being a healthy scratch in Week 1 followed by no snaps in Week 2, Roschon Johnson finally got his first carries of the season in Week 3. Johnson totaled 30 rushing yards on eight attempts (3.8 yards per carry) and 0.11 RYOE/C. He also totaled 22 snaps -- only 6 behind Swift's team-high of 28. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN suggested Johnson could be in line for more snaps in Week 4.

Swift has gotten his chance to be the lead back, and it's led to 68 rushing yards on 37 carries (1.8 yards per attempt). The workload has been extremely lopsided as Johnson's eight carries is already the second-most among Bears running backs. Our DFS projections have Johnson totaling the most attempts (11.4) this week, ahead of Swift's 8.5.

With that said, jumping on Johnson before his value goes up is a wise idea. He already has the most projected rushing yards (46.6) on Chicago. This bold take is pretty simple. Williams has struggled, making the run important. Johnson showed promise in Week 3 while Swift has been dreadful. The Bears' ground game will probably best through Johnson, and the Rams are giving up 5.1 yards per carry (fifth-most) and 177.0 rushing yards per contest (third-most).

Look for Chicago to pound the rock in Week 4 on the back of Johnson. There's a good shot that Johnson sees the most snaps in the Bears' backfield this week, leading to success with 75+ rushing yards.

Sam Darnold Falls Short of 180 Passing Yards

Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings have been a nice story so far. Despite several injuries, including first-round rookie J.J. McCarthy and tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings are 3-0. One of the headlines has been Darnold's dramatic improvement, carrying 0.06 EPA/db, 657 passing yards, and eight touchdowns. He's currently fifth among qualifying players with 8.4 yards per passing attempts.

Darnold and efficiency in the same sentence? That was certainly not on my 2024 bingo card. But all good things must come to an end, and I believe that's Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers. Darnold's biggest knock has been turnover problems, and even with success, he's still thrown two interceptions this season. Meanwhile, the Packers lead the league with 3.0 takeaways per contest.

According to FantasyPros, Green Bay's D/ST is currently producing the second-most fantasy points per game at 13.0. This comes on the back of 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. Xavier McKinney has quickly impressed in the green and yellow with a league-high three picks, and stud corner Jaire Alexander isn't far behind with two of his own. A ball-hawking secondary and Darnold does not mix well.

The Packers currently hold numberFire's 10th-best pass defense while giving up -0.16 EPA/db (10th-best for defenses). Defending the run has a been a different story with opponents logging 0.97 RYOE/C against Green Bay (fifth-worst for defenses). The Vikings are currently posting 4.8 yards per rushing attempt (10th-highest), and Aaron Jones comes off another exceptional outing with 102 rushing yards and 0.93 RYOE/C.

Paired with a concerning matchup for Darnold, Minnesota's run game should fare well against the Packers. Even with solid production from Darnold thus far, the Vikings are still attempting the ninth-fewest passing attempts per contest.

Darnold's passing prop is set at 228.5 yards and his projection is at 236.8 passing yards. Instead of going over his prop like projections suggest, I like Darnold to go far under by failing to reach 180 passing yards.

Marvin Harrison Jr. Produces Another Multi-Touchdown Game

Malik Nabers of the New York Giants is rightfully getting a ton of recognition through three weeks. He's pretty much taken the Giants' passing game on his back, carrying a 37.8% target share (second-highest), 37 targets (the most), and 271 receiving yards (fifth-most). While Nabers is currently carrying the second-shortest odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300), Marvin Harrison Jr. has quietly emerged over the last two weeks with 194 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Harrison isn't far behind the OROY race at +550 (third-shortest).

Week 4 is another excellent opportunity for Harrison to add to his resume. The Arizona Cardinals are taking on the Washington Commanders, who are allowing 8.0 passing yards per attempt (fourth-most) and 255.7 passing yards per contest (second-most). Washington has numberFire's worst pass defense by a landslide while allowing 0.45 EPA/db (the worst). For reference, the second-worst mark in EPA/db allowed is held by the Rams at 0.35. Both marks are putrid, but the Commanders being 0.10 worse than 0.35 should have the alarms going off.

Kyler Murray has been pretty darn good so far with 0.15 EPA/db (sixth-best among qualifying players). All of this points to another big game for Harrison -- who has led the team with 9.5 targets per game and a 34.5% target share over the last two weeks. This has also included red zone dominance, for Harrison has a 75.0% red zone target share (!!) during the span.

The target share in Arizona has mostly gone as expected thus far. Harrison leads the team with 22 targets and a 25.6% target share. Trey McBride is closely behind, holding 21 targets and a 24.4% target share. As if Harrison's dominance in the red zone wasn't enough, McBride is in the concussion protocol. Harrison's targets could take yet another leap if McBride is out of the fold.

During his collegiate career, Harrison was a touchdown machine, logging 14 tuddies in 2022 and 2023. We've gotten a taste of this in recent weeks, and our DFS projections have Harrison tied for the second-highest touchdown projection this week (0.58). Let's go all in on Harrison scoring by taking the rookie to score twice.

We know the matchup is there as the Commanders are giving up the most fantasy points per game against wide receivers. This includes 3.0 touchdowns per game allowed to receivers by Washington's defense. The second and third-worst marks are at 1.7 and 2.0. No one is giving up tuddies to receivers like the Commanders, creating the ideal matchup for Harrison to shine.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.