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Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 3

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath•@ffaidanmcgrath

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Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 3

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you only play 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you four bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2023 NFL season.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 3

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Will Have His Breakout Game

The Seattle Seahawks appeared to shake off their rocky season opener in their Week 2 win over the Detroit Lions and should get a chance to build off of that win in Week 3 against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers do not look like a particularly good team at this point, but they do play a rather unique style of defense relative to the rest of the league.

No team has blitzed opposing passers at a lower rate this year than the Panthers, who have blitzed on 7.8% of their defensive reps. It's been a relatively effective decision for them so far; they rank fifth in the league with eight sacks despite blitzing so rarely and have kept their opponents to just 44 total points through two losses. Their style of defense -- in combination with the particular opponents they've faced -- has led to opposing offenses throwing with the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) per attempt (3.5 yards down the field) in the league.

Effectively, their defense funnels targets to underneath looks. In Week 1, that meant frequent targets to the Atlanta Falcons' running backs, and in Week 2, they depressed Derek Carr's league-high Week 1 12.4 aDOT down to a more subtle 8.5 aDOT. In other words, their defense is going to push a ton more looks towards Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 3.

Smith-Njigba has played notably behind teammates D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to start the year, but is still pretty much the only other receiver seeing real snaps in their offense. Even with most of the targets still largely going towards his teammates so far, the exciting 2023 first-round pick still drew six targets last week, catching five of them for 34 yards. The Seahawks are featuring him on the same kind of underneath routes that the Panthers' defense gives up (his 2.3 yard aDOT is closer to a running back's typical aDOT), meaning he could be in line for a heavy workload in Week 3.

With the stars aligning in his favor, our first prediction for Week 3 is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have his first game with over 100 receiving yards.

Alexander Mattison Will Rush for at Least 100 Yards

Things have not gone great for Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison through the first two weeks of the 2023 season. The team has tasked him with filling Dalvin Cook's shoes as their starting running back and, to be polite, he's still getting used to his new role. Compared to a league-average back, he's rushing for 1.16 fewer rushing yards over expectation per attempt (the ninth-lowest rate among qualifying backs) and adding positive yards over expectation at a 26.3% clip (the seventh-worst rate).

It's been rough for Mattison so far, but those numbers do need some context -- he has faced some truly difficult opponents in the first two weeks of the season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles have allowed opposing rushers to average 3.3 and 3.4 yards per carry to open the season, the sixth- and seventh-lowest marks of any defense in the season. Their success at stopping opposing rushers has led to them allowing the third-fewest (33) and least (31) rush attempts per game, respectively. Those numbers are not just a product of soft matchups, either, as both teams have consistently fielded strong rushing defenses in recent seasons.

The positive spin for Mattison is that while he has not put up strong numbers this year, he has maintained his grasp on the Vikings' lead back role. Only one other back on the team (Ty Chandler) has handled any carries this year, and that back has generated 0 yards on 4 carries. The Vikings are giving Mattison pretty much every running back opportunity they have to give, which is the kind of usage we want to target in fantasy football.

Things could open up for the Vikings this week as they square off against the Los Angeles Chargers, whose defense has been like a sieve to open the year. In previous seasons, the team was notorious for giving up wide running lanes in order to stifle opposing passing games. This season, they're giving up wide running lanes and allowing big plays in the passing game; they might be the worst statistical defense in the league if this keeps up. That means Mattison could finally find himself with a favorable matchup and an opportunity to convert his heavy workload into fantasy points. This would be just his fourth career game with at least 100 rushing yards.

Jordan Love Will Not Throw a Touchdown

We did not have this on our 2023 season bingo card, but through the first two weeks of the season first-year/fourth-year Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love co-leads the NFL with six touchdown passes. He has thrown three in each of his starts this year.

As on-brand as it would be for the Packers go from Hall of Fame quarterback to Hall of Fame quarterback to Hall of Fame quarterback, it's too early to consider Love as a candidate to join the ranks of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. His touchdown totals look strong this year, but behind the curtains his numbers aren't quite as impressive.

No quarterback has benefitted more from his receivers' yards after catch than Love has this year. Packers wideouts are adding yards after the catch at a 7.7 yards per reception clip, the highest rate in the league. Love does get to share some credit for that; it indicates how he is putting his wideouts in favorable positions to continue the play after they catch his pass, but plays like Week 2's pop pass to Jayden Reed (below) can help show how Love's numbers have been a little loftier than we'd expect.

According to Next Gen Stats' completion percentage over expectation metric, Love's -10.8% mark ranks second-worst among NFL starters this season, with only Justin Fields faring worse in that regard. Pro Football Reference has charted his throws as being on target 69.2% of the time (the sixth-lowest rate) and has him throwing "bad" passes (uncatchable) on a league-high 25% of his attempts. The early results have looked alright on paper, but it does seem like Love's promising start is due for some regression.

That regression could hit this week when the Packers take on the New Orleans Saints, whose only allowed passing touchdown this season came in garbage time against the Carolina Panthers. They're looking like one of the stronger defenses in the NFL through the first two weeks of action and could be the first team to keep Jordan Love out of the end zone this season.

The Fantasy RB1 and RB2 Will Play in the Same Game

The 2023 NFL Draft brought us two of the most exciting running back prospects in recent years. In Week 3 we will get to see those budding stars battle as the Atlanta Falcons take on the Detroit Lions. Both Bijan Robinson (RB4) and Jahmyr Gibbs (RB6) are already projected for two of the top Week 3 finishes at the running back position, but our final and boldest bold prediction is that the two rookies will finish as the RB1 and RB2 in fantasy in Week 3. We've already seen both players absolutely pop on the screen this year -- they just move different.

This is no slight to Tyler Allgeier, who has more than proved his mettle in the NFL, but it should be hard for the Falcons to continue giving him touches with how electric Bijan Robinson looks. The eighth overall pick of the draft has carried the ball 29 times for 180 yards at a ridiculous 6.2 yards per carry clip while adding an additional 75 yards as a receiver. Next Gen Stats charts him as averaging 2.63 additional rushing yards per carry over expectation so far this year, the second-highest mark in the league. He's adding those positive yards over expectation on over half of his carries, too, indicating that he's already one of the league's truly elite running backs.

On the other side of the game, the Lions have steadily kept Gibbs in an RB2, change-of-pace role -- the lightning to David Montgomery's thunder. They won't have that luxury in Week 3 with Montgomery nursing a nasty thigh injury and could have to lean on Gibbs for rushing production. The team does seem to trust Craig Reynolds a surprising amount, but it's time for them to take the training wheels off of Gibbs' bike and let him do his thing.

The biggest knock on Gibbs as a prospect was his size, but that doesn't seem to be an issue for him so far. He has broken the second-most tackles in the league (6) despite handling just 19 carries, giving him the single best attempts per broken tackle rate (2.3) across the entire NFL. With an increased workload, we could see him open things up for Detroit's already strong offense.

Both of these explosive backs are set up to have the biggest workloads of their young careers in Week 3, and both have already proven that they can keep producing with outlier-level efficiency in the NFL just like they did at the college level. We are going to see these special talents accomplish an extremely rare feat together in Week 3 when they finish as the RB1 and the RB2 in fantasy football this weekend.


Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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