Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 2
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you only play 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you four bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 2
Joe Burrow Will Not Be a QB1
Week 1 was absolutely brutal for Joe Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals. Frankly, we haven't seen the stud QB play that poorly since... Week 1 of the 2022 season when Burrow was still recovering from an emergency appendectomy. Experiencing deja vu, Burrow was once again recovering from an injury in Week 1 this year after missing all of training camp with a calf strain. Fresh off signing a massive contract extension, Burrow struggled to complete any passes against the Cleveland Browns in the season opener.
Whether it was the lingering effects of the injury, a matter of rust after missing training camp, the downpouring weather, or even playing against a Browns defense that has looked better on paper than it has in practice over the past few seasons, Burrow's Week 1 was the kind of disaster you want to just write off. Unfortunately for him and Bengals fans, we might still need to curb expectations in Week 2.
The Bengals are now slated to take on another division foe this week with the Baltimore Ravens, whose defense just put up 5 sacks for 46 yards against a Houston Texans offensive line whose struggles look similar to Cincinnati's. In fact, the Ravens' defense ranks just behind the second-place Browns' defense based on numberFire's opponent-adjusted NEP model, making them an equally fearsome competitor to the Browns. In other words, Cincinnati could be in for another rough one in Week 2.
We should be projecting Burrow to bounce back from the worst game of his career, but a bounce-back effort doesn't necessarily mean he'll return to the upper ranks of the fantasy leaderboards. The first bold prediction for the week will be that Joe Burrow finishes outside of the top 12 finishers at the quarterback position in Week 2.
Nico Collins Will Be a Top-12 Receiver
We mentioned the Houston Texans' Week 1 struggles above, but our biggest takeaway from their Week 1 loss to the Ravens could be that rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like he might be legit. He took a few too many sacks behind the Texans' shaky offensive line, but it at least looked like he might be able to help the Texans put some of their skill position players into play for fantasy football.
That's where Nico Collins comes into play. He ran 39 routes in Week 1, which tied for the 17th-most among all wide receivers in the league. He was even reasonably efficient with those routes, averaging 2.05 yards per route run in the season opener. That mark ranked 20th among all qualifying Week 1 pass catchers, so the former third-round pick might be on the precipice of a breakout.
That breakout could happen this week against an Indianapolis Colts defense that just got diced up by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. The Colts' most experienced cornerback is Kenny Moore, who stands at 5'9" and 190 lbs. He is surrounded by two second-year UDFAs in Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker, who mostly played special teams in 2022. If Collins is going to prove he's capable of breaking out, this would be a good spot for him to do it.
This game will be a fun battle between two rookie quarterbacks (assuming Anthony Richardson is healthy enough to play). If Stroud proves able to take advantage of Indy's defense, Collins should be the primary beneficiary ahead of aging veteran Robert Woods, free agent Noah Brown, and diminutive rookie Tank Dell.
The Detroit D/ST Will Finish Top Six
The Detroit Lions have sure come a long way over the last few years. They won the first game of the season over the reigning Super Bowl champions, and they did so with a blend of potent offense and playmaking defense. In fantasy, the Detroit D/ST could have surprising upside for Week 2.
We saw their offense put up fantastic numbers a season ago already, but in 2022 their defense was arguably the worst in the entire NFL; only two teams gave up more points than the Lions did last year, and no team in the NFL allowed opposing offenses to put up more yards against them.
That once-leaky defense looked much-improved against Patrick Mahomes in Week 1 -- even if he was playing without Travis Kelce (or any other reliable pass-catchers, for that matter). They'll now test their mettle at home against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.
The Seahawks lost in surprising fashion to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, mustering just two net yards of offense in the second half. The culprit? Mid-game injuries to both of their starting tackles. Both Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross left Sunday's Week 1 game with injuries and are currently "day-to-day" by head coach Pete Carroll's account, which we should take with a grain of salt. If the Seahawks' tackles are already limited, they could be in for a truly rough Week 2 outing against the Lions.
The Lions' young defense wasn't able to bring Mahomes down for a sack in Week 1 but were at least able to generate pressure during the game. They should have an easier go of things against Seattle this week and could convert enough of those pressures into sacks and turnovers to turn in a top-six performance among fantasy D/STs.
Sean Tucker Will Finish Better Than Rachaad White in Fantasy
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off the surprise upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings, but starting running back Rachaad White had very little to do with that win. While the second-year back did handle a strong 19 touches in the season opener, he only took his 17 carries for 39 yards (with just one single first down) and took his 2 receptions for just 10 yards.
The advanced metrics don't paint a particularly kind portrait of his efforts, either. White's carries resulted in -4.09 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), the third-worst mark in the league among backs that didn't actually commit fumbles. He posted a 29.41% Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of rush attempts that added positive NEP to a team's total), the fifth-worst mark among starting running backs.
Unfortunately for White, his Week 1 struggles are a continuation of a pattern we saw developing in his rookie season. In 2022, the NFL's Next Gen Stats team charted White as having the eighth-worst Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Carry (RYOE/C) in the league, averaging 0.23 yards per carry worse than a league average back would be expected to put up given his opportunities. So far this season, White's -2.4 RYOE/C ranks dead last in the league -- well behind backs like Cam Akers, whose -1.9 RYOE/C illustrates why his head coach tries his best to keep him off the field.
It usually takes an abundance of fumbles for a team to force a change at the running back position, but in White's case, he is just simply not getting the job done. That means we could be seeing more of RB2 Sean Tucker much earlier than we may have expected.
The Bucs have a softer matchup for their running backs in Week 2 as they prepare to take on the Chicago Bears. If White continues to struggle against a defense that just allowed Aaron Jones to dice them up, don't expect head coach Todd Bowles to continue force-feeding a running back who is grinding out 2.3 yards per carry.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.