Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 15
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 15
Dalton Schultz Reaches 15+ Fantasy Points
It's been a meh season for Dalton Schultz, ranking as TE23 on the year. However, he enters Week 15 off his highest fantasy point total of the season (14.6 points), ranking as the TE7 in Week 13. Will Schultz go on a hot streak during the homestretch of the fantasy season?
This week, the Houston Texans play host to the Miami Dolphins -- a team who carries the 11th-best schedule-adjusted defense per numberFire's metrics. For the most past, Joe Mixon (RB2 in fantasy points per game) and Nico Collins (WR2 in fantasy points per game) have been carrying Houston's value in fantasy. Collins is poised for another huge game as our NFL DFS projections have him as WR5 this week. Mixon is viewed in a similar light, sporting the highest projection (18.8 points) among flex-eligible players.
However, the run game could be less relevant in Week 15 against the Dolphins. Miami touts the 7th-best adjusted rush defense and the 15th-worst adjusted pass defense. Attacking the Fins' secondary may prove to be Houston's best route for points.
Since Collins returned from injury in Week 11, the Texans are averaging 28.0 points per game (PPG). For comparison, Houston logged 24.4 PPG from Week 6 to 10 when Collins was out, and this was elevated by 41 points in Week 6. From Week 7 to 10, the Texans mustered up only 20.3 PPG.
Houston's star receiver back in action has coincided with better play from C.J. Stroud. The second-year signal-caller posted -0.17 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) when Collins was out compared to -0.01 over the last three (via NFL Next Gen Stats).
The bottom line? The Texans' passing attack is trending in the ideal direction for this matchup, bringing more value to Schultz.
Dalton Schultz - Receiving Yds
Miami gives up the 15th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Schultz scored a touchdown for the first time this season last week and logged 61 receiving yards (his second-most in 2024). Since Collins returned, Schultz red zone numbers also look far more favorable. Over the past three games, Schultz leads the team with a 27.3% red zone target share while sitting second with a 71.9% red zone snap share (behind Mixon's 75.0%).
Our projections have Schultz as TE16 while logging only 6.9 FanDuel points. After recording 14.6 FanDuel points a week ago, look for Schultz to go way above his projection by reaching 15+ points. This goes along with over 30.5 receiving yards, for he's projected 36.2 receiving yards. Scoring a touchdown is likely a necessity for this pick, but Schultz's red zone work in recent games brings plenty of confidence.
Braelon Allen Finishes as a Top 15 Running Back
With the worst adjusted defense in football, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a fantasy green light for any team, even the 3-10 New York Jets. This includes their backfield that will likely be without Breece Hall (knee) once again as he has yet to practice this week. Targeting Jacksonville's defense on the ground is a slam dunk, for it gives up the 2nd-most FanDuel points per game to running backs and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per contest (10th-most).
New York had a split backfield between Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in Week 14. Both backs brings excellent value right now as Allen is projected RB35 while Davis is RB41. In DFS, Davis is a bit more enticing thanks to his $5,500 salary vs. Allen's $6,400.
Braelon Allen - Rushing Yds
Last week, Allen carried a 55.6% snap rate and 21.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) compared to Davis' 52.4% snap rate and 22.0 adjusted opportunities. The big difference was Davis totaled nine red zone snaps to Allen's four. However, Allen proved to be far more efficient in the receiving game, logging 7.9 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) while Davis finished at -13.2.
With that said, Allen could see more adjusted opportunities in Week 15, and the two were nearly even in yards per carry (3.9 for Allen; 4.0 for Davis). I'm expecting the rushing attempts to be about the same, but Allen getting the edge in the receiving game should mean more red zone work. This was the difference in Week 14 as Davis totaled 14.2 fantasy points and a touchdown; Allen did not score despite scoring 10.1 fantasy points.
Allen feels like the best target in the Jets' backfield. He certainly has the ability to go far over his projected 7.6 fantasy points. Rushing yard props for the Jets-Jaguars also have a 51.5-yard prop set for Allen, and Davis has a 36.5-rushing yard prop. Allen finishing 20 spots over his fantasy projection is in the cards, meaning a top-15 finish is well within his range of outcomes.
Jayden Daniels Racks Up 70+ Rushing Yards
Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders has been up and down over the last month of play. After finishing as QB24 in Week 10 and 11, he bounced back with an absurd 30.5 FanDuel points per game over his last two.
Much of this has been thanks to his legs as he's averaged 54 rushing yards per game and 1.0 rushing touchdowns during the stretch. Keep in mind Daniels is logging 45.4 rushing yards per contest this season and had not scampered into the end zone since totaling four rushing touchdowns over the first four weeks of play.
We've seen the standout rookie reach 70 rushing yards on three occasions; another one could be imminent against the New Orleans Saints.
This is a run-funnel defense as the third-worst adjusted rush defense and ninth-best adjusted pass defense. Along with giving up 5.0 yards per carry (the most), New Orleans surrenders 1.2 rushing touchdowns per contest (seventh-most). Washington carries the sixth-highest rush-play percentage in football, and it erupted for 42 points in Week 13 by totaling 45 rushing attempts compared to 30 passing attempts (60.0% rush-play rate).
Daniels has been lethal as a rusher all season by recording 0.51 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), but he's been even better recently, putting up 2.47 since Week 12. He's also tied for a team-high 30.8% red zone rushing attempt share over the last two games.
The Saints have allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to QBs in 2024. Against a vulnerable rush defense, Daniels' legs should be busy on Sunday. However, he's only projected 39.5 rushing yards; look for the rookie to smash this projection.
Tee Higgins Continue Downhill Slide
So far, we've been positive for all of our bold takes. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows, though; let's pick a player to fade in Week 15.
Tee Higgins has been the definition of boom or bust in the 2024 season. Over eight outings, he's produced three top-10 weekly finishes and four in the top 16. In those other four games, Higgins fell outside of the top 25 wideouts. Another finish outside of the top 25 looks likely against the Tennessee Titans.
Our projections have Higgins at WR6, though. How would this go down? It will likely depend on a touchdown. When Higgins was in the top 16 of weekly finishes, he found the end zone in each game. But he hasn't scored when falling outside of the top 25 fantasy receivers.
Tee Higgins - Receiving Yds
The Titans tout the 13th-best adjusted pass defense and allow the 3rd-fewest FanDuel points per game to wide receivers. Since returning from injury, Higgins sports a healthy 30.8% red zone target share (behind Ja'Marr Chase's 38.5%). However, I'm not sure if there will be enough scoring opportunities for Higgins.
As WR1 in fantasy, Chase is going to get his no matter what. The stud wideout is projected as WR1 with 16.3 FanDuel points this week, including the highest touchdown projection (0.66) among receivers. Chase Brown has scored in 8 of his last 10 and is projected 0.78 touchdowns -- yet more competition for Higgins.
Higgins could be the odd man out. Plus, there will likely be fewer points than most expect. While the Cincinnati Bengals hold a 26.5-point prop, numberFire's NFL projections have Cincinnati scoring 22.5 points. Tennessee is still in the top half of all three adjusted defensive categories; this won't be a walk in the park.
There isn't a whole lot pointing to Higgins finding the end zone this weekend, especially with Chase and Brown holding higher chances for a touchdown. Against a defense that thrives at limiting receivers, Higgins looks like one of the best fades of the week. Another finish outside the top 25 receivers in fantasy is a good take. If Higgins does not log a touchdown, it'll probably be another disappointing performance considering his 66.5-receiving yard prop.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.