START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NFL

Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 11

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

Subscribe to our newsletter

Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 11

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 11

Jameson Williams Turns in Top-20 Fantasy Finish

Our NFL DFS projections have Jameson Williams as WR41 this week with only 8.0 projected fantasy points. However, Williams had an encouraging five targets for three catches and 53 yards in Week 10. He finished second on the team with a 20.8% target share while boasting an absurd 57.2% air yards share.

Excluding Week 8 and Week 9 -- which Williams missed due to suspension -- he leads the Detroit Lions with a 36.2% air yards share this season. Plus, Jamo ranks second on the squad in target share (17.9%). He fit right back into this role last week, and I don't see that changing against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Jacksonville carries the worst schedule-adjusted pass defense while allowing 8.0 yards per passing attempt (third-most) and 261.2 passing yards per contest (third-most). The Lions are fully capable of taking advantage of this weakness, ranked third in adjusted pass offense while racking up 8.6 yards per passing attempt (third-most). Jared Goff's five interceptions last week are a pressing concern, but he's still posted 0.12 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) this season (via NFL Next Gen Stats).

The Jags give up the most yards per deep target (13.1), giving Williams an ideal matchup to erupt with a big-time fantasy performance. Additionally, Jacksonville holds the sixth-highest man coverage rate, and Williams is fifth in fantasy points per route run against man coverage. Jamo is holding an elite 4.34 yards per route run against man coverage, as well (second-most among qualifying players).

Jameson Williams - Receiving Yds

Jameson Williams Over
@
Jameson Williams Under
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Jamo is poised to smash his 41.5-receiving yard prop, but reaching a top-15 finish will likely rely on a touchdown. Fortunately, Williams has three receiving touchdowns over seven appearances and is third on the team with a 16.1% red zone target share.

Williams has produced three top-20 weekly fantasy finishes this season; he's in line for another in Week 11 against the Jags.

Nick Chubb Produces First Top-10 Ranking of 2024

When Nick Chubb is healthy, he's one of the game's best backs -- point blank period. Over three games, he's yet to make his fantasy presence felt with zero double-digit performances. However, that could change on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.

Even with a 35% snap share in Week 9, Chubb still totaled 15 rushing attempts. This was in a 27-10 lopsided loss against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cleveland Browns could avoid a negative game script this week as only 1.5-point 'dogs against the Saints.

Not only could Chubb get more carries in a close game, but that will come in a favorable matchup against the NFL's second-worst adjusted run defense. The Saints have given up 0.65 rushing yards over expectation per carry (sixth-most), 5.1 yards per carry (second-most). and 141 rushing yards per contest (sixth-most). The Saints also give up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game, adding to Chubb's upside in Week 11.

Nick Chubb - Rushing Yds

Nick Chubb Over
@
Nick Chubb Under
Nov 17 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

We saw Chubb get up to a 59% snap share in Week 8, showing the Browns are willing to lean on their star back who is returning from injury. Plus, Cleveland was on bye in Week 10 -- which could mean another stride for Chubb toward full health. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey suggested Chubb is looking more like himself, "It's exciting to see him feel more and more comfortable and like himself."

This could finally be the week when Chubb provides fantasy value, surpassing his RB20 projection.

Kirk Cousins Doesn't Reach 200+ Passing Yards

Kirk Cousins is averaging 263.4 passing yards per game this season. Despite facing one of the league's top defenses in Week 11, our projections don't have Kirk far off from his average with 242.1 projected passing yards.

Cousins appeared on the injury report this week with a right shoulder and right elbow injury. After being a full participant at practice on Thursday, Cousins is trending in the right direction. However, we shouldn't overlook a shoulder and elbow injury on Cousins' throwing arm.

Following 38 passing attempts last week (his second-highest of the season), Atlanta probably should look to lighten the load on the vet QB. It won't take much convincing either as the Denver Broncos boast the fifth-best adjusted pass defense while giving up only 6.5 yards per passing attempt (fourth-fewest). Drake London (hip) and Darnell Mooney (Achilles) were also on this week's injury report; this is even more reason to go away from the pass with the Falcons' top two receivers banged up.

Cousins hasn't faced a top-half unit in adjusted pass defense over his last six games. There's plenty of reason to expect his stats to substantially dip in Week 11. Plus, Atlanta is logging 32.2 rushing attempts per game over the last five compared to 21.6 carries per contest over the first five games of the season. The Falcons haven't been afraid to lean on the run, and they should be able to avoid a negative game script with Sunday's 1.5-point spread.

The writing is on the wall for Kirk in Week 11. Not only is he dealing with injuries on his throwing arm, his top targets are also dealing with setbacks. Against an elite pass defense, look for Cousins to finish under 200 passing yards.

Jauan Jennings Logs 80+ Receiving Yards

When elevated by injuries in the San Francisco 49ers' receiving room, Jauan Jennings has rose to the challenge. He figures to have a substantial role going forward after Brandon Aiyuk sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 7.

After missing back-to-back games with a hip injury, we got our first glimpse of Jennings in this receiving corps minus Aiyuk in Week 10. Jennings turned in a high-volume performance, logging seven catches for 93 receiving yards on 11 targets. This was reminiscent of when he erupted for 175 receiving yards in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both absent.

In the two games Jennings has played without one of Aiyuk, Kittle, and Samuel, he's averaged 11.5 targets and 134.0 receiving yards per game. This also goes along with a team-high 35.9% target share, 41.7% air yards share, and 36.4% red zone target share in the split.

This week's opponent -- the Seattle Seahawks -- have been mediocre defending the pass, allowing 7.1 yards per attempt (18th-fewest) and 218.1 yards per game (20th-fewest). In addition, the Seahawks rank 16th in adjusted pass defense. None of this screams to fade the Niners' passing attack.

Considering the matchup and how Jennings has dominated looks when key receivers are out, we could be getting some excellent value here. His DFS salary is only $6,200 despite 57.6 projected receiving yards.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup