Fantasy Football: 3 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target in Week 12
Matchups are everything in the NFL, especially at the receiver position.
For fantasy purposes, being able to identify which receivers have advantageous (or disadvantageous) matchups is a sharp way to get a leg up on your opponent.
Each Friday this piece lists the best wide receiver-cornerback matchups for the upcoming week. It doesn't take a genius to tell you to start Justin Jefferson, but there will be weeks when some WR1s have better matchups and other weeks when typical WR2 or WR3s have matchups that bump them up in our weekly rankings.
numberFire's player matchups chart helps to identify advantageous matchups for specific positions. Then, Pro Football Focus' (PFF) Player Grades and their WR/CB Matchup chart are great starting points for identifying which specific matchups we want to target.
Projections and rankings come from our NFL projections, which are powered by numberFire. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated. NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Week 12 Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups
Mike Evans (TB) vs. Deonte Banks (NYG)
numberFire Projection: 13.1 points (WR5)
- 71 Yards
- 5.2 Receptions (8.3 Targets)
- O/U 55.5 Yards
- O/U 4.5 Receptions
- +120 Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Mike Evans (hamstring) is expected to return from a three-game absence to take on the New York Giants this week. After logging full practices during the week, Evans is in a nice spot against New York's Deonte Banks.
Banks has served as the Giants' top corner this season -- though he hasn't exactly excelled at that role. Among 117 qualified corners, Banks ranks 98th in PFF coverage grade. He's permitted 13.5 yards per reception (a bottom-25 mark) while allowing the 11th-most total yards (447), 3rd-highest passer rating when targeted (137.8), and 2nd-most touchdowns (6).
Evans, meanwhile, should serve as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' top target with Chris Godwin (ankle) out for the season. In six full games with Evans active, he ranked second only behind Godwin with a 22.3% target share. He led the team with a 44.2% air yard share and 3.5 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game.
Head coach Todd Bowles has been lukewarm about how much Evans will play, but considering he was a limited participant in Week 10's practices and had an additional bye week to recover, I'm optimistic he sees close to a full workload.
That makes this a nice spot to buy low on Evans in such an advantageous matchup. I'm certainly interested in his receiving yards prop given the lack of weapons around him, but my preferred way to target Evans is via his +120 anytime touchdown scorer odds.
Evans has scored six times in seven active games and leads Tampa with a 55.6% end zone target rate (1.4 per game). He was tied for the league-lead in receiving touchdowns prior to getting injured.
Josh Downs (IND) vs. Amik Robertson (DET)
numberFire Projection: 9.8 points (WR23)
- 57 Yards
- 4.4 Receptions (7.5 Targets)
- O/U 53.5 Yards
- O/U 4.5 Receptions
- +240 Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Though the Indianapolis Colts turned back to Anthony Richardson last week, the quarterback change didn't seem to impactJosh Downs. The second-year slot man tied for the team lead in receptions (5) and paced them in yards (84) while scoring his fourth touchdown of the season.
Sure, Downs did see his lowest single-game target share (17.9%) since Week 7, but he made up for it with a season-high 13.7-yard aDOT (average depth of target). He earned 3 downfield targets for the fourth consecutive game.
We now have a four-game sample of Downs operating with a healthy Richardson. In those games, he's averaged 3.3 receptions (on 5.5 targets) and 54.5 yards per game, ranking second on the team in target share (22.2%) and pacing the Colts in red zone target share (50%).
But Richardson is coming off his best passing performance of the season in terms of EPA per dropback (.28) and passing success rate (55%), setting Downs up well for Week 12's home showdown with the Detroit Lions.
Detroit is numberFire's top schedule-adjusted pass defense, but they've been a secondary to target given the sheer amount of volume opposing offenses rack up against them. They've surrendered the highest target rate and sixth-most YPRR (yards per route run) to wide receivers, culminating in the sixth-most fantasy points per game.
The Lions have been especially susceptible to the slot, against whom they've allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game since Week 6 (per Razzball).
From the slot, Downs will be matched up plenty with corner Amik Robertson. Robertson ranks just 92nd among qualified corners in PFF coverage grade. He's been targeted at the 11th-highest clip and allowed the 9th-most yards per coverage snap from the slot.
It helps that the Colts are 7.5-point underdogs on Sunday, potentially forcing them toward a more pass-heavy offense if they fall behind early. That could be a major factor in a potential Downs outburst considering they've maintained a barbaric -11.5% PROE (pass rate over expectation) with Richardson under center.
Richardson and Jonathan Taylor are too big of red zone threats for me to comfortably lay +240 odds on Downs to score, but the over on his 4.5 receptions prop is mighty appealing given his role and projected game script.
Josh Downs - Total Receptions
Quentin Johnston (LAC) vs. Brandon Stephens (BAL)
numberFire Projection: 8.9 points (WR28)
- 50 Yards
- 3.6 Receptions (6.3 Targets)
The Los Angeles Chargers are the latest offense to get a crack at the Baltimore Ravens porous secondary, and it could lead to another strong showing for big-play machine, Quentin Johnston.
Johnston only managed 48 yards off 2 receptions last week, but he saw a season-high 8 targets while scoring his sixth touchdown in eight games. With that, he's now scored in three consecutive games.
In eight games with Johnston active, he ranks second on the team in target share (18.7%) and air yards share (27.8%) while leading the way in aDOT (13 yards) and end zone target share (28.6%).
That's helped him finish as a top 24 fantasy WR in three straight games -- a number he could add to in a stellar matchup with Baltimore. The Ravens are down to 27th in adjusted pass defense and have permitted the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Johnston should see more than his fair share of cornerback Brandon Stephens on Monday night, and that's a matchup he should be able to take advantage of. Among qualified corners, Stephens has the sixth-lowest PFF coverage grade. He's given up the second-most yards (633) and sixth-highest aDOT (14.8) in football. He's a big reason why the Ravens have given up a league-high 16 receiving touchdowns to wideouts.
It doesn't hurt that the Chargers are 3-point home 'dogs in a game with a 50.5-point total, either. With LA ranking seventh in PROE since their bye, we could see Justin Herbert air it out early and often to keep up with Baltimore's high-powered offense.
At the time of publication, Johnston did not have props up on FanDuel. This is a spot I'd be looking to his touchdown scorer or receiving yards prop given Baltimore's tendency to give up chunk plays and receiving touchdowns.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.