Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 10
We have reached the point in the 2024 NFL season where there is plenty of information and data to use when making lineup decisions in fantasy football. Understanding trends around the league can allow us to gain an advantage over our opponents in fantasy football, whether it be in season-long or DFS formats.
Player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive schemes, and other factors all fit the description of trends we should be paying attention to. Taking that into account, let's take a look at a few trends to know entering Week 10.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 10
De'Von Achane Has League-Winning Upside (Again) With Tua
Things looked dire for the Miami Dolphins' offense when Tua Tagovailoa was on injured reserve due to a concussion. Scoring 20-plus points seemed nearly impossible, and the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane were tough to trust in weekly fantasy lineups.
However, with Tua back under center for the Dolphins, Achane has league-winning upside again. Following an electric rookie campaign in 2023, Achane has taken on a larger role in the aerial attack this year, which makes him even more valuable in fantasy.
Across the four games with Tagovailoa starting, Achane is registering a 56.5% route rate and 133.3 scrimmage yards per game while posting the second-highest target share (21.7%) and most yards per route run (2.91) on the Dolphins during that sample, per NextGenStats. Comparatively, Achane logged a 46.7% route rate and 47.3 scrimmage yards per game while notching an 11.2% target share and 0.78 yards per route in the four games without Tua starting.
Just this past week, Achane produced a mind-boggling 83.3% route rate, 29.6% target share, and 2.32 yards per route run, which led to 121 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 touches. Achane has finished as the RB6 or better in half-PPR leagues across all four games with Tagoavailoa, paving the way for him to end the year strong despite Miami's forgettable 2-6 record.
The Chargers Are Letting Justin Herbert Throw More
Before the 2024 season kicked off, all signs pointed toward the Los Angeles Chargers being a run-heavy team with Jim Harbaugh being named head coach, Greg Roman being hired as the offensive coordinator, and the Bolts signing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while moving on from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. An ankle injury suffered byJustin Herbert in training camp reinforced the idea that the Chargers would lean on their ground game to begin the year.
After a 2-0 start to the season, Los Angeles lost two consecutive games before their bye in Week 5, prompting them to make alterations to the offense. Entering their Week 6 matchup versus the Denver Broncos, the Chargers were 27th in pace and 31st in pass rate over expected (-10.4%).
Meanwhile, over the last four contests since their bye week, LA has moved up to 17th in pace and 18th in pass rate over expected (-3.6%). Herbert is an extremely talented quarterback, and the Chargers are letting him cook in recent weeks -- with fruitful results.
In his last four starts, Herbert is averaging 286.8 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game, and he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 2, helping the Chargers secure a 3-1 record in that span. FanDuel Research's Austan Kas mentioned Herbert as a quarterback to stream in Week 10, and the QB's outlook looks bright with upcoming clashes against the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, and Las Vegas Raiders.
Cade Otton Is A TE1 With Chris Godwin Out
Injuries have plagued the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the wide receiver position, with Mike Evans missing multiple games because of a hamstring ailment and Chris Godwin sustaining a season-ending ankle injury. Once Evans and Godwin suffered their injuries, there were conversations about which receiver would see an expanded role between Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Trey Palmer.
While Evans is expected to make a return this season, Cade Otton has taken on the role of being the go-to target for Baker Mayfield sans Godwin. From Week 1 to Week 6, Otton was recording a 90.9% snap rate, 77.9% route rate, 16.5% target share, and only 27.2 receiving yards per game.
As for his last three games, Otton is posting team-best marks in snap rate (96.0%), route rate (82.0%), target share (25.4%), and receiving yards per game (86). With the Bucs possessing the second-highest pass rate over expected (+3.3%) entering Week 10, Otton is operating as the primary receiver in the short and intermediate part of the field, making him an extremely valuable player in fantasy.
Even when Evans returns, we should expect to see Otton remain a key contributor in Tampa Bay's passing game given where he is running his routes. Otton has finished no worse than TE5 over his last three appearances, and he should continue thriving in a pass-heavy offense amid Godwin's unfortunate absence.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.