Fantasy Football: 3 Sleeper Running Backs to Target for the 2024 Season
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The running back position doesn't dominate the first round of fantasy drafts quite like it used to. True three-down backs are being replaced more and more by committees, and "Zero RB" has become a go-to strategy in many fantasy circles.
Yet that doesn't diminish the fact that getting strong production from your RBs -- regardless of where you drafted them -- is often the key to getting to the fantasy football promised land.
With that in mind, which running backs being drafted in the the mid-to-late rounds could become potential league-winners in 2024?
3 Sleeper Running Back Picks for 2024
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Jonathon Brooks is recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last November while still playing for the Texas Longhorns, yet the injury didn't stop him from being the first running back taken in the 2024 NFL Draft as a second-round pick (46th overall) by the Carolina Panthers.
Due to the injury, Brooks won't be ready at the beginning of the season, but the hope is he'll be ready by Week 3 or Week 4. As of this writing, he's being drafted as the RB33 at a 95.7 overall average draft position (ADP), per FantasyPros.
Between Brooks' uncertain recovery timeline, his unknowns as a rookie, and the overall low expectations for the Panthers (5.5 win total on FanDuel Sportsbook), it's easy to see why he's being drafted outside the top 30 at the position.
But all of that is opening up a buying opportunity for a player who could be a true difference-maker in the season's second half.
A quick glance at Brooks' college career shows little usage over his first two seasons, but that's only because he was playing behind Bijan Robinson, who just so happens to be a consensus top-three fantasy back entering 2024. No shame in that.
Therefore, we really care about just his final campaign, one in which he racked up 1,139 rushing yards on 187 attempts while scoring 10 touchdowns. He also tacked on 25 receptions for 286 receiving yards and another TD. Keep in mind that he accrued those raw numbers despite missing the final three regular season contests.
Among 2024 draft eligible RBs with at least 100 rushes last season, Brooks ranked third in run grade (91.9), eighth in yards after contact per attempt (3.91), fifth in missed tackles (63), and fifth in elusive rating (140.3), per PFF.
In that same sample, he also ranked fifth in receiving grade (76.0) and yards per route run (1.50). Even as a pass blocker, he put up the fourth-best rating (77.0), which will further encourage the Panthers to utilize him as a featured back.
Given Brooks' all-around profile, it's easy to see why Carolina was still willing to draft him early despite the injury.
While the rookie isn't exactly joining a top-tier offense, the fact that the Panthers' rushing offense ended 2023 with numberFire's 22nd-ranked adjusted rush attack means he shouldn't have much trouble pushing incumbent backs Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders aside to lead this backfield when the time comes.
Carolina bolstered their offensive line in free agency, as well, which has led PFF to bump them up to 20th in their o-line rankings. That might not seem like much until you see that PFF had this unit down at 29th at the conclusion of 2023.
There's inherent risk in drafting anyone who's guaranteed to miss roughly a month of the season, as if your team is in an 0-4 hole by the time Brooks is healthy, it might not even matter how he does down the stretch.
But the best-case scenario of getting a three-down back for maybe three-quarters of the year -- at a draft cost barely inside the top 100 -- is an enticing prospect when considering Brooks.
Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
Blake Corum is another rookie who could emerge on the fantasy landscape after being drafted by the Los Angeles Rams in the third round (83rd overall).
As we know, the Rams already have Kyren Williams in the backfield, a player who just so happened to average the second-most fantasy points per game (19.9) among RBs behind only Christian McCaffrey in 2023. Over his 12 games, Williams averaged the league's third-most adjusted opportunities per game (26.4), and over his last five contests, he averaged a whopping 31.0.
With a featured back like Williams standing in the path of Corum, what makes his situation so intriguing?
Part of it is the way Williams emerged last season. Entering 2023, Cam Akers was expected to be the Rams' lead back, but following a poor Week 1 performance, Sean McVay had no problem pivoting to Williams straight away, and Akers was off the team by Week 3.
In other words, we shouldn't expect McVay to show any loyalty to the incumbent if he thinks Corum deserves more looks.
Further, it's quite evident Los Angles must really like Corum if they used a third-rounder on him, and it could also be a sign that they're not planning to give Williams the same workload this year, something the Rams themselves have indicated. McVay has been raving about Corum this offseason, and if the past is any indication, perhaps we should take him at his word.
Corum's advanced metrics on PFF might not pop off the page like Brooks', but he's coming off a national championship run with the Michigan Wolverines where he piled up 1,362 scrimmage yards and 28 total touchdowns (27 rushing), and he was the third RB taken in the NFL draft behind Brooks and Trey Benson.
While Williams is being picked well inside the top 20 as the RB7, Corum is available around pick 122 as the RB41. We should remember that Williams has also endured various foot injuries since being drafted in 2022, so missed time could also propel Corum to a bigger role.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott has gotten a lot of attention on FanDuel Research this offseason as a player to target in fantasy drafts. He will be the lead back for a Dallas Cowboys team that's expected to contend (9.5 win total on FanDuel Sportsbook), and he doesn't face a ton of backfield competition with Tony Pollard gone and Royce Freeman being the only other backfield addition. Dallas should also still have a top-10 offensive line, per PFF. It makes a lot of sense.
But at 29 years old with a ton of mileage on his legs, Elliot's strictly being drafted for his role and not much else. Would anyone really be surprised is he struggles and is ultimately usurped by someone else?
Hello, Rico Dowdle.
Not only is Dowdle expected to be the next man up in this backfield committee, but beat writer Jon Machota of The Athletic recently noted that Dowdle "has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing."
Admittedly, the 26-year-old doesn't have much of an NFL resume as an undrafted player with all of 96 career rushes and 22 career targets, but nearly all of that usage came in 2023. If we're to be encouraged by anything from last season, it's that Dowdle ranked 10th among NFL RBs with a minimum of 20 targets in yards per route run (1.57), which could help him see an enhanced role as a pass-catcher.
Given that Dallas moved on from Pollard and brought in only a pair of aging backs to replace that production must be at least some vote of confidence in Dowdle, as well.
Elliott is being drafted as the RB36 (108.7 overall), whereas Dowdle is at RB45 (148.3). Targeting the presumed backup in murky backfields can often lead to value, and while Dowdle's track record (or lack thereof) suggests he's unlikely to ever dominate touches, the possibility to overtake the declining veteran in a lead role is worth a swing at such a modest ADP.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.