Fantasy Football: 3 Last-Round Picks to Target in 2024

In fantasy football, drafting the right players in the early rounds is obviously important to have a winning campaign, but we shouldn't overlook the impact of hitting on our final picks. While we typically need a lot of things to break right to cash in on our late-round lottery tickets, identifying the correct players with the talent and/or situation to emerge is half of the battle.

Some of the biggest difference-makers in 2023 were Kyren Williams (RB7 in half-PPR), Puka Nacua (WR4),Nico Collins (WR9), and Sam LaPorta (TE1), all of whom were either late picks or went undrafted.

We'll surely get our share of surprises this season, as well, so we shouldn't overlook the potential of our final picks. Keeping in mind that the "last round" of fantasy drafts can vary wildly from league to league, let's look at players who could have sneaky upside outside the top 170 overall, according to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) numbers.

3 Last-Round Picks for 2024

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

Targeting backup running backs attached to strong offenses is always a sound strategy, as an increased role has that much more potential for upside if that team is, you know, scoring a lot of points.

The Buffalo Bills selected RB Ray Davis in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Through two preseason games, he's trending toward earning the No. 2 spot in the backfield behind incumbent James Cook and is coming off an encouraging Week 2 performance.

With running back Latavius Murray no longer on the squad, Davis could at the very least slide into Murray's vacated goal-line role even if Cook continues to get the majority of overall opportunities.

While that might not be as lucrative a role as on other teams because of Josh Allen, Murray more than doubled Cook on carries inside the five-yard line (11 to 4) last year despite Allen leading the way (14), per Pro Football Reference.

Additionally, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that the Bills choose to lean on the rookie more -- Murray was 33 years old last year -- to protect their franchise QB. Davis's body type fits the bill, as he's roughly 25 pounds heavier than Cook (215 vs. 190) and three inches shorter (5-9 vs. 5-11). Further, among last year's draft-eligible backs with at least 100 carries, Davis was inside the top 10 in yards after contact per attempt (3.91), according to PFF, which was notably tied with Jonathon Brooks, the first running back drafted (46th overall).

But what makes Davis especially intriguing is that he also has pass-catching credentials, giving him the all-around versatility to increase his usage beyond short-yardage situations. In the same sample of college RBs, he was also inside the top 10 in yards per route run (1.36) after posting 33 receptions, 323 receiving yards, and 7 receiving TDs in his final campaign.

Although we likely still need a Cook injury for Davis to truly see a bump in playing time, the former reportedly struggled with ball security in training camp, and he did fumble four times last year, most notably getting benched for multiple drives after fumbling on the first play against the Denver Broncos last November. Cook also struggled with drops last season (6), which included several that could have been touchdowns.

Cook would probably need a lot to go wrong in these areas to lose his standing, but the fact these issues have come up before leaves the door cracked ever so slightly for Davis to carve out a bigger role than expected.

Even if Davis is ultimately a pure handcuff, the draft cost is practically nothing as the RB61 in half-PPR formats. Chasing that best-case scenario is an easy sell at this draft cost.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another rookie running back who could be worth targeting late is Bucky Irving, a fourth-round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this past draft. Like Ray Davis, Irving is firmly behind an incumbent starter -- in this case Rachaad White -- but he's expected to be the next man up.

The first thing that stands out about Irving is that he was utilized quite heavily as a receiver in college, hauling in a whopping 56 catches for 413 yards and 2 TDs in his final season at Oregon. While he was just 13th among draft-eligible in yards per route run (1.26), he still earned PFF's seventh-best receiving grade (74.4) in that sample.

In addition to that, Irving ranked sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.99) and third in elusive rating (152.1), which are other positive signs that he can have an impact as a runner. Early returns have certainly been positive through two preseason contests.

If Irving can make the most of his touches when the season begins, that could lead to a bigger slice of the pie even if Rachaad White remains healthy. That's because White wasn't particularly efficient as a rusher in 2023, ranking 43rd in PFF's rushing grade (66.7) and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt among back (2.53) with a minimum of 100 carries. He also posted -0.42 rushing yards over expected per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

White was heavily utilized and productive as a pass-catcher, though, which should help him stay atop the depth chart. In 2023, he posted the third-most receiving yards (549), fourth-most receptions (64), and most snaps running a route (451) among RBs. Irving is smaller in stature (5-10, 190 lbs), too, another potential hurdle for him at the NFL level.

Irving is being drafted at RB59, typically going a little before or after the aforementioned Ray Davis. White's inefficiency as a rusher could lead to more opportunities for the Tampa rookie than expected, and if nothing else, Irving should get chances in the passing game.

Ja'Lynn Polk, New England Patriots

We're rounding things out with a third rookie, this time from the wide receiver position.

Ja'Lynn Polk hasn't necessarily created a ton of preseason fantasy buzz playing for a rebuilding New England Patriots team that's once again expected to be at the bottom of the standings (4.5 win total on FanDuel Sportsbook). The team has PFF's 32nd-ranked pass-catching group, which isn't a ringing endorsement, either.

But Polk will reportedly begin the year as a starter, and if anyone is going to separate himself from this middling group, it ought to be the guy the front office drafted with the 37th overall pick.

There's so much uncertainty in this New England wide receiving corps that Polk is being drafted as the WR68, yet is often the first Pats wideout off the board alongside Demario Douglas (WR73). Douglas should be the Pats' main slot receiver and technically led the team in receiving yards (561) last year, but it's fair to be skeptical of his ceiling as a former sixth-round pick.

Polk caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2023 for Washington, and it's noteworthy that he put up those numbers while competing for targets with Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, who were drafted 9th and 92nd overall, respectively, this year.

We probably shouldn't expect any miracles here, as this is still a team that's expected to struggle to score behind a shaky offensive line and is more likely to rely on its defense to win games in low-scoring, fantasy-sapping fashion. In 2023, the Pats were sixth in adjusted defense, per numberFire.

Still, this offense has nowhere to go but up, and even being the top option on a bad team can have value if the targets are there. It's also possible Drake Maye is given a chance this season. If he's ahead of schedule, it could further give Polk and this passing attack a much-needed jolt.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.