Fantasy Football: 2 Players You Can Drop After Week 9
Every week, basically every fantasy website in the industry puts out a waiver wire column -- here's ours for this week. But in some instances, the real problem isn't deciding who to pick up; it's figuring out which players to part ways with.
Knowing when to drop an under-performing player is a tough call, but I'm here to help you out. Dead weight on your fantasy roster can be particularly harmful during bye weeks. These are the players you don't feel comfortable cutting but who prevent you from picking up someone else. Maybe you even get roped into starting them in a pinch.
Of course, it doesn't hurt to explore any trade possibilities before cutting a player. But the issue with many of these guys is that their value is already low, so they may be difficult to move. If you can't move them, fine -- that's when you can consider dropping them to address other needs on your roster. But don't just drop them without doing any market research in your league.
These are tough decisions to make -- if they weren't, I wouldn't need to write this article. But it doesn't have to be so hard. After this past week, here are some players you can drop and why you can do so.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
Fantasy Football Players to Drop After Week 9
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith has been a revelation for fantasy football. He's the QB7 entering Week 10 and has finished as a top-12 option in six of nine games. He leads the league in passing yards, completions, and attempts for a Seattle Seahawks offense that's third in PROE (+3.3% pass rate over expectation).
There's a case to be made from him being a regression candidate, too. Despite him attempting 26 more passes than the next-closest quarterback, Geno ranks just 10th in passing touchdowns. His 3.2% touchdown rate ranks 25th -- narrowly ahead of Justin Fields (3.1%).
Smith's profile is one I typically want to chase, not drop. But the Seahawks are quietly down to 13th in PROE (-3%) over the last four games, and they're without top receiver D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf is expected to return following their Week 10 bye, but I don't think we should be locked into stashing Geno considering Seattle's post-bye schedule.
The next time we see Seattle in action, they'll take on the San Francisco 49ers (sixth in schedule-adjusted pass defense) on the road. That's just the beginning of a tough rest of season stretch for the Seahawks passing game. Even with two matchups against the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle has the most difficult remaining schedule for quarterbacks according to PFF. That includes playoff dates with the Green Bay Packers (11th in adjusted pass defense), Minnesota Vikings (9th), and Chicago Bears (1st).
That's a brutal stretch, and it's not one in which you'll be eager to deploy Geno Smith. Consequently, in single-quarterback leagues, Geno is someone I'm more than alright dropping ahead of Week 10.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Let's preface the idea to cut Diontae Johnson with an aside -- you're not dropping Diontae Johnson because of his Week 9 performance. Upon being traded to the Baltimore Ravens midweek, Johnson played just 29.6% of snaps and only ran 4 routes. But Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins both saw mitigated snap counts in their first game post-trade, so Johnson's Week 9 dud shouldn't be the deciding factor in whether or not to continue rostering him
The trade, however, should. Johnson went from an offense which had fed him a 26.6% target share to one that has several mouths to feed. Johnson isn't going to take over as their WR; that's the Zay Flowers role (27.3% target share). He's reportedly not taking Rashod Bateman's role (15.9%), either.
Instead, Johnson is expected to eat into Nelson Agholor's workload. As the third receiving option (not counting tight ends) on a team ranking 30th in PROE (-7.9%), Agholor is averaging just 1.2 receptions per game via a 39.9% route participation. He's sixth on the team in target share (9.4%).
Now, Johnson is a better receiver than Agholor, but the Ravens have deployed 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) at the lowest rate in football (per SumerSport). They're third-to-last in raw pass rate and middle-of-the-pack in plays per game.
That begs the question: where is Diontae Johnson's fantasy production coming from?
My guess is it's not coming.
Diontae will have a blow-up game or two on such a high-powered offense. Maybe he'll see 7 targets in a soft matchup or catch two touchdowns when you least expect it. But, it's hard to imagine the NFL's second-highest scoring offense dramatically changing things at this point in the season.
As a result, Diontae Johnson doesn't carry much fantasy value right now. There's a case to stash him in deeper formats, but in 10 or 12-team leagues, I'm much rather take a waiver-wire shot on someone who could consistently see targets than continue to roster Diontae.
At this point, he's nothing more than a streamer.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.