FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Picks and Helper for 12/16/23

Following a week full of action in the Champions League, the EPL returns for Matchweek 17.

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday and features five matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

EPL DFS Picks

Slate Overview

Luton (+550) at Bournemouth (-220)
Over 2.5 Goals: -157 | Most Likely to Score: Solanke (+115)

Sheffield United (+1200) at Chelsea (-450)
Over 2.5 Goals: -209 | Most Likely to Score: Jackson (+100)

Crystal Palace (+1500) at Manchester City (-650)
Over 2.5 Goals: -233 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-190)

Fulham (+300) at Newcastle (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -143 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+135)

Everton (+110) at Burnley (+260)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+200)

Positional Breakdown
Forwards/Midfielders

Saturday's main slate features two big-six sides, with Manchester City in action at home against Crystal Palace and Chelsea at home against Sheffield United. It also features two more home favorites, with Bournemouth hosting Luton and Newcastle welcoming Fulham to St. James' Park.

As is usually the case when City is on a slate, everything starts with their forwards and midfielders. However, for the first time in a long time, City's form gives us a reason to pause and consider if they are deserving of their lofty salaries this weekend.

City broke their four-game winless streak with a victory over Luton last Sunday. It was a much-needed result, but the 2-1 scoreline, given the massive difference in talent, was far from convincing. They followed that up with a 3-2 win over Red Star in the Champions League on Wednesday, another unconvincing result that was even closer (1.4-1.1) on expected goals (xG), per FBRef.

It all amounts to a strange lack of confidence in high-salaried options such as Erling Haaland ($24, -190 anytime goal odds), Julian Alvarez ($22, -120), Phil Foden ($20, +155), Jack Grealish ($17, +195), and Rodri ($17, +195). Instead of asking who will score for City, we are left to wonder if they will score multiple goals at all -- City are averaging just 1.55 xG per match over their last six fixtures. They remain an elite side, but at the moment, this is not the same dominant City we have come to know over the past seven seasons.

Adding to their uncertain outlook is a Crystal Palace side that has allowed the seventh-fewest xG this season (21.8). All in all, I believe City is still set up for success this weekend, but there are three other home favorites on the slate, so there are viable alternatives if you want to fade the defending champions while they continue to figure things out.

One of those home favorites is Chelsea, who are having plenty of troubles of their own. The one thing Chelsea had going for them recently was their goal-scoring -- since November they had scored in six consecutive matches, including eight goals combined against Manchester City and Tottenham. That came to a screeching halt with their 2-0 loss to Everton last Sunday.

Despite those concerns, their outlook this weekend is excellent against Sheffield United, who have allowed the most xG (33.2) and goals (41) in the EPL this season. This is a pristine bounce-back spot for Nicolas Jackson ($19, +100), Raheem Sterling ($18, +140), Cole Palmer ($19, +170), Enzo Fernandez ($16, +280), and Conor Gallagher ($17, +300).

Another team with an excellent matchup this weekend is Bournemouth, who is the third-largest favorite on the slate. The Cherries are in a fantastic run of form, with four wins and a draw in their last five fixtures by a combined score of 12-3. That stretch includes wins over Manchester United and Newcastle and a draw with an equally in-form Aston Villa side. On Saturday, they face Luton, who is tied with Bournemouth for the most xG allowed this season (33.2).

It all sets up well for Dominic Solanke ($21, +155), who has four goals scored over his last five appearances. Justin Kluivert ($13, +190), Antoine Semenyo ($16, +200), and Marcus Tavernier ($19, +300) all have great outlooks, as well.

Elsewhere, Newcastle enters this weekend coming off a crushing elimination from the Champions League on Wednesday. They are on a three-game losing streak but rank second in xG this campaign (31.3) and are facing a Fulham side that has conceded the sixth-most xG (27.0). If they are up for it, Alexander Isak ($19, +145), Miguel Almiron ($16, +270), and Anthony Gordon ($20, +210) should have plenty of opportunities in this one. Gordon picked up a hamstring injury on Wednesday, so his status needs to be confirmed prior to kickoff.

Other players with decent odds to find the back of the net include Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($17, +200), Zeki Amdouni ($15, +350), and Raul Jimenez ($17, +300).

Added time -- Some other midfield options to consider include Gustavo Hamer ($13, +320 to score or assist), Andreas Pereira ($16, +250), Ryan Christie ($17, +115), Johann Gudmundsson ($14, +310), and Dwight McNeil ($20, +165).

Defenders

With Newcastle on the slate, our search for defenders with consistent involvement on set pieces would have usually focused on Kieran Trippier, but he is unavailable due to suspension.

His absence frees up a monumental number of set-piece opportunities. Outside of Trippier, only three other players on Newcastle have taken more than one set piece this season -- Sandro Tonali, who is also suspended, Callum Wilson ($20, -120), who played the full 90 minutes on Wednesday, and defender Fabian Schar ($12, +460). I would expect set pieces this weekend to be handled by a midfielder or forward, but Schar is worth considering even if he doesn't take any -- he is averaging 13.9 FanDuel points per game.

That brings us to Alfie Doughty ($12, +360) who is the primary set-piece taker for Luton and normally operates as an outside midfielder in their 3-4-2-1 formation despite being listed as a defender. Doughty has double-digit FanDuel points in each of his last six matches and in 10 of his last 11. Luton are underdogs to Bournemouth, but the Cherries have allowed the fourth-most xG this season. There should still be opportunities for Luton in the final third.

Despite City's recent struggles, we can expect Crystal Palace's defenders to have their hands full on Saturday. Joachim Andersen ($14), Marc Guehi ($11), and Joel Ward ($10) are all worth considering. The same can be said of Sheffield United's backline, who are no strangers to operating as heavy underdogs. Against the Blues, Anel Ahmedhodzic ($12), Auston Trusty ($11), and Jayden Bogle ($11) should all be busy.

Fulham have won back-to-back games by a combined score of 10-0, but they are road underdogs on Saturday and could have plenty of defensive opportunities against the Toons. Tosin Adarabioyo ($12) and Calvin Bassey ($10) are worth considering in the heart of Fulham's defense, as are Timothy Castagne ($11) and Antonee Robinson ($13) on the outside. Robinson, in particular, has been excellent this season. His averaging 18.2 FanDuel points per game and has scored at least 16.0 FanDuel points in nine of his last 11 appearances.

Added time -- For GPPs, City's Josko Gvardiol ($11, +550 anytime goal odds) has decent odds to score for a defender and offers a unique way to gain exposure to the slate's largest favorite.

Goalies

Manchester City's Ederson ($13) has the best win odds on the slate, followed by Chelsea's Robert Sanchez ($13). Sanchez was forced to exit Sunday's loss to Everton with a knee injury. If he is unavailable, Djordje Petrovic ($13), who allowed one goal in just six minutes played in that game, could be between the posts for the Blues.

Outside of those two, Bournemouth's Neto ($12) and Newcastle's Martin Dubravka ($12) have the best win odds.

Of the four of them, Ederson holds an edge at keeping a clean sheet with Crystal Palace at -155 to score no goals. His edge is a small one, though, as Sheffield United is listed at -120 to score no goals, which bodes well for whoever starts for Chelsea. After those two, there is a tier break, with Luton (+120 to score no goals) and Fulham (+175) less likely to be held off the scoresheet.

For GPPs, Neto could have the most save opportunities of the group. Bournemouth allows the fifth-most shots on target per 90 in the league (5.12), above Chelsea (4.75) and Newcastle (4.31) and well above Manchester City (2.94).

Another option to consider for GPPs is Fulham's Bernd Leno ($9). Newcastle gave everything they had to try to advance in the Champions League on Wednesday and face a short turnaround before they host Fulham. They have been an inconsistent side this season, defeating several elite opponents and losing to lesser opposition multiple times. Fulham allows the fourth-most shots on target per 90 (5.31), so Leno should be busy. The Cottagers are coming off back-to-back 5-0 victories, the opposite of the form Newcastle is in.

Added time -- The afternoon clash between Everton and Burnley is the game least likely to see over 2.5 goals. Burnley (+165) is slightly more likely to score no goals than Fulham is, which would benefit Everton's Jordan Pickford ($11). Everton has won three in a row and kept a clean sheet in all three.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.