FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/23/23

Matchweek 6 is here already! Time flies when you're watching Brighton score goals and Manchester United concede them.

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday and features five matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Fulham (+320) at Crystal Palace (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Edouard (+185)

Wolves (+120) at Luton (+230)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Kalajdzic, Silva, and Cunha (+210)

Nottingham Forest (+1600) at Manchester City (-700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -286 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-210)

Everton (+350) at Brentford (-130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Mbeumo (+175)

Manchester United (-135) at Burnley (+330)
Over 2.5 Goals: -173 | Most Likely to Score: Hojlund (+160)

Positional Breakdown
Forwards/Midfielders

Saturday's slate starts with the defending champions, who are large home favorites against Nottingham Forest.

Forest have been decent to start the season, as they sit eighth on the league table and rank eighth in expected goals allowed per 90, per FBref. In their three matches against big-six sides so far, they have done well, losing 2-1 to Arsenal and 3-2 to Manchester United before securing a 1-0 win over Chelsea.

City are on a different level though; they lead the EPL in xG per 90 (2.44) and xG allowed per 90 (0.72).

Erling Haaland ($26, -210 anytime goal odds) has the best odds to score on the slate and is averaging an absurd 44.78 FanDuel points per match this season. At 30.08 FanDuel points per match, his teammate Julian Alvarez ($24, +110) isn't far behind him, but his odds to score are noticeably worse. Phil Foden ($18, +170) and Jeremy Doku ($19, +200) offer a way to gain exposure to City at more affordable salaries.

Outside of deciding how many City stars to include in your lineup, the most pressing question on this slate is what to do with Manchester United.

On one hand, United is enduring a horrendous start to the season, sitting 13th on the table and 10th in xG difference per 90 (-0.03). On the other hand, the public distrust in United may swing too far this weekend, allowing their stars to go overlooked against Burnley.

Over their last three matches, United has faced Arsenal, Brighton, and Bayern Munich, a much different level of opposition than they will face on Saturday.

For large field tournaments, Rasmus Hojlund ($18, +165), Marcus Rashford ($21, +165), and Bruno Fernandes ($22, +250) are interesting pivots off of City's popular stars.

Of course, if you want to avoid United entirely, I completely understand. Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo ($20, +175) ranks fourth in xG per 90 this season (0.83), Crystal Palace's Odsonne Edouard ($21, +185) is tied for ninth (0.54), and Eberechi Eze ($20, +220) has taken the fourth-most shots per 90 (4.60). All three are solid options, as is Pedro Neto ($20), who is +140 to score or assist against Luton.

Other players with decent odds to find the back of the net include Yoane Wissa ($15, +190), Matheus Cunha ($18, +210), Carlton Morris ($15, +230), and Kevin Schade ($14, +220).

Added time -- Some low-salary options to consider include Mathias Jensen ($16, +700), Amadou Onana ($11, +1000), Andreas Pereira ($14, +500), Willian ($13, +500), and Johann Gudmundsson ($11, +1000).

Defenders

Ashley Young ($11, +500 to score or assist), Ryan Giles ($12, +250), and Alfie Doughty ($9, +280) offer low-salary exposure to defenders with set piece involvement and are an excellent starting point at the position.

An important situation to watch will be the availability of Forest's Willy Boly ($15) and Felipe ($13). Boly is dealing with an illness, and Felipe continues to deal with a knee injury that has sidelined him for the entire season thus far. Serge Aurier ($12) is also dealing with an injury.

If any or all of these players are unavailable, it could open up excellent value options at the position, as whoever starts for Forest on Saturday will be extremely busy against Manchester City.

If United can bounce back this weekend, Burnley's Jordan Beyer ($12) and Ameen Al Dakhil ($9) should be busy and are worth considering.

Elsewhere, facing Brentford, the third-largest favorite on the slate, Everton's backline could be in for another busy day. Jarrad Branthwaite ($12), Vitalii Mykolenko ($12), and James Tarkowski ($11) could go overlooked at their salaries, especially if value options open up in Forest's defense.

Added time -- For GPPs, Wolves' Craig Dawson ($12) has double-digit FanDuel points in every game this season and has decent odds to score for a defender (+900).

Goalies

Ederson ($14) has the best win odds on the slate, followed by the trio of Andre Onana ($13), Mark Flekken ($12), and Sam Johnstone ($12).

Ederson carries the highest floor. Forest is -135 to go without a goal on Saturday, but his upside will be limited by a lack of save opportunities. City's 2.0 shots allowed on target per game is tied with Arsenal for fewest in the league.

Among the trio behind Ederson, Fulham (vs. Johnstone) and Everton (vs. Flekken) are more likely to go without a goal (+135) than Burnley (vs. Onana; +190). Manchester United have better odds to win than Brentford and Crystal Palace, but their struggles on defense make them more likely to concede a goal.

For large field tournaments this weekend, Onana is an interesting option. He will likely be unpopular after his high-profile mistake against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but he offers a decent combination of save upside and win odds.

Between Flekken and Johnstone, Johnstone is my preferred play. Fulham's 0.97 xG per 90 minutes ranks third-worst in the league, over a half goal below Everton (1.50), who sit in 12th.

Added time -- Luton's Thomas Kaminski ($10) is facing a Wolves side that ranks 13th in xG per 90 (1.43). As a slight underdog with a middle-of-the-road salary, he could go overlooked in GPPs on Saturday.

Looking to build some EPL DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy soccer lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.