FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 8/12/23

Our long wait is over. After a summer full of transfers, speculation, and anticipation, the 2023-24 Premier League season is finally here.

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

You can also take part in a free roll for this main slate. To help celebrate the launch of FanDuel Research, we're running a free roll each week through the end of the NFL season. This week's free roll is for Saturday's EPL main slate -- EPL Matchweek 1 FanDuel Research Free Play.

Slate Overview

West Ham (+155) at Bournemouth (+170)
Over 2.5 Goals: -115 | Most Likely to Score: Solanke (+200)

Crystal Palace (+145) at Sheffield (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Edouard (+220)

Fulham (+230) at Everton (+120)
Over 2.5 Goals: -108 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin and Mitrovic (+170)

Luton (+900) at Brighton (-330)
Over 2.5 Goals: -164 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+100)

Aston Villa (+380) at Newcastle (-140)
Over 2.5 Goals: -137 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+155)

Positional Breakdown
Forwards/Midfielders

In a kind of fun twist, the first main slate of the season doesn't feature a single big-six side. Instead, the slate is highlighted by two sides that impressed last season -- Brighton and Newcastle. Odds dictate that we start with Brighton, who are the largest favorite on the slate at home against recently promoted Luton Town. Evan Ferguson ($21; +100 to score) has slate-best goal odds, but it's his teammate Solly March ($22; +210) who has the highest salary on the slate. Along with Kaoru Mitoma ($19; +190), this trio is well positioned to start their season with a bang as they welcome Luton town to the Premier League.

Next up is Newcastle, who are looking to cement their place among the EPL's elite after finishing in the top four last season. They are the second-largest favorite on the slate but have a much trickier matchup against an Aston Villa side that ended last season playing some inspired soccer under Unai Emery. This is a marquee showdown between two sides with high hopes for this season and it has the second-best odds to go over 2.5 goals of any match on the slate. For those goals, look to Callum Wilson ($19; +155) and Alexander Isak ($20; +155) who both finished last season ranked inside the top 10 in expected goals per 90, according to FBRef's xG model. For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins ($18; +260) has the best odds to score and finished last season with the sixth-most xG (16.5) in the EPL.

Outside of these matchups, the rest of the slate is projected to be very even. The clash between West Ham and Bournemouth has the next best odds to see more than 2.5 goals. From that fixture West Ham's Danny Ings ($17; +240) and Said Benrahma ($15; +320) are in play, while Bournemouth's Justin Kluivert ($13; +230) is a solid value option.

Fulham's clash with Everton is also expected to see more than 2.5 goals. Aleksandar Mitrovic ($21; +170) offers a high-salaried alternative to Brighton's stars after he finished last season ranked third in xG per 90 (0.67). The Toffees had the second-most xG allowed in the EPL last season (65.7). Everton is already dealing with injuries to several players, but summer arrival Arnaut Danjuma ($17: +230) could be a decent GPP option if he gets the start.

Added time -- The Crystal Palace-Sheffield match has the worst odds (+112) to go over 2.5 goals. Sheffield's Benie Traore ($15; +230) is worth considering in GPPs as The Blades look to ride a wave of home support to a win in their first Premier League fixture since being promoted.

Defenders

Newcastle's Kieran Trippier ($16) is an excellent option. He is +210 to score/assist and could be busy on both ends of the pitch in this one. Trippier had the third-most expected assists in the EPL last season (12.4).

For Brighton, Pervis Estupinan ($14) is a solid option. He finished last season with 15 chances created over his last 8 matches and should spend most of his time on the attack against Luton Town in this one. He has +300 odds to score/assist.

Tom Lockyer ($12) should be very busy at the heart of Luton's defense, while Mads Andersen ($9) and Amari'i Bell ($8) offer similar involvement at lower salaries. Similarly, Aston Villa's Tyrone Mings ($12) and Ezri Konsa ($9) should have their hands full with Newcastle's attack, giving them plenty of chances to accumulate FanDuel points through defensive actions.

Added time -- For GPPs, West Ham's Nayef Aguerd ($13; +950) has decent odds to find a goal against a Bournemouth side that conceded plenty last season. He scored twice in his 18 appearances during the 2022-23 campaign.

Goalies

Jason Steele ($13) and Nick Pope ($11) have the best win odds on the slate.

Steele carries the higher floor, Luton is -115 to go without a goal on Saturday, but his upside could be limited by a lack of save opportunities. Pope will face more resistance, Aston Villa is +150 to score no goals, giving him a higher ceiling but a lower floor. For GPPs, the slightly lower salary and added upside make Pope the more appealing option.

Sheffield's Wes Foderingham ($8) offers a decent combination of win odds (+210) and odds for Crystal Palace to score no goals (+230). Playing at home, he's a decent option if you expect the Blades to begin their campaign with an inspired performance.

Added time -- West Ham's Lukasz Fabianski ($10) is facing a Bournemouth side that generated the third-fewest xG last season (38.6). As a very slight road favorite with a middle-of-the-road salary, he could go overlooked in GPPs on Saturday.

Looking to build some EPL DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy soccer lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.