FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 8 Thursday Night (Bucs at Bills)

Following an embarrassing loss to the can't-even-tank-right New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills are expected to right the ship at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites in a game with a 43.5 over/under, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

With Buffalo sitting pretty as heavy home favorites, there are no surprises up top in numberFire's model, as Josh Allen ($17,500) and Stefon Diggs ($15,000) are projected for the most and second-most FanDuel points, respectively.

While Allen's rushing is way down (4.1 carries for 21.1 yards per game) compared to last season (7.8 carries for 47.6 yards per game), he's still a consistent running threat in the red zone with four rushing scores.

Additionally, despite being tied for the second-most interceptions (seven), Allen has remained efficient through the air overall, ranking sixth in passing yards per attempt and fourth in numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back.

All of it has helped him remain the QB1 in FanDuel points per game (23.3). Tampa Bay is 22nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, so the only reason to shy away from Allen at MVP is his inevitable popularity.

Diggs is easily the best non-Allen way to gain access to this Bills offense. He's been peppered for 11.1 targets per game with a 33.2% target share, 44.7% air yards share, and 29.4% red zone share. He enters the week as fantasy's WR2, hitting 100 or more receiving yards in five of seven games while already grabbing 6 touchdowns.

It's fair to assume Diggs will get his chunk of MVP attention, but it should be much, much lower than Allen's.

Among other Bills, James Cook ($12,500) and Gabriel Davis ($11,000) have outside shots at leading the slate in scoring. Davis, in particular, shouldn't be very popular at MVP.

Cook has a difficult matchup against numberFire's top schedule-adjusted rush defense, but defensive tackle Vita Vea is looking iffy after missing practice all week, and his absence would provide a boost. The Buffalo lead back is averaging a solid 12.6 rushes and 3.0 targets per game, but he's seen just 28.6% of the rushes in the red zone, lowering his chances of scoring.

Still, Cook's averaging 86.4 scrimmage yards a game and could have a ceiling game with a little touchdown luck.

Davis' up-and-down volume makes him a volatile weekly play. He's a distant second behind Diggs in target share (14.9%) but has a respectable 26.6% air yards share and actually leads the team in end zone share (41.2%). He's scored a touchdown in four of seven weeks and went for more than 90 yards in two of those performances.

Although his floor is close to zero -- he's scored a combined 2.7 FanDuel points over the past two games -- Davis sees enough downfield and end zone looks to have a path toward a huge game.

On Tampa's side, the players projected for double-digit FanDuel points are Baker Mayfield ($13,500), Mike Evans ($14,000), Chris Godwin ($11,500), and Rachaad White ($12,000).

Mayfield has been a middle-of-the-pack quarterback, coming in as the QB15 while averaging 15.7 FanDuel points per game. That might normally push him aside as mostly a flex-only play, but this injury-riddled Bills defense just gave up 29 points to a Patriots team that's 32nd in adjusted offense, and that included a 20-point FanDuel performance from maligned quarterback Mac Jones.

As a significant road 'dog with unspectacular results, Mayfield's MVP roster percentage won't be high, and getting any QB at reduced popularity should always pique our interest.

The two stud Bucs receivers have seen identical target shares (24.9%), though Evans holds the edge in air yards share (39.0% to 27.2%) and has been the more productive player. Evans is averaging more receiving yards per game (78.0 to 66.3) and has scored four times to Godwin's zero.

However, Godwin's lack of scores could be a byproduct of bad luck and nothing more. He's actually seen the higher rate of red zone targets (34.6% to 19.2%), and the two have each earned a robust 38.5% of the end zone looks.

Long story short, both players are viable MVPs in lineups that assume the Bucs hold their own on offense, and Godwin has added appeal as the one who should see the lower roster percentage.

White's probably a fringe MVP as a big underdog behind a shaky offensive line, but Buffalo's let up some big performances to opposing backs and ranks just 24th in adjusted rush defense. He's been the Bucs' clear lead back regardless of who's been active, with high marks in both snap rate (77.9%) and red zone rush share (73.7%). He's projected for roughly 14 carries and 4 targets, which is right about what he's averaged this season.

Flex Breakdown

Flipping back to the Bills, Dalton Kincaid ($7,500) is coming off a breakout game, catching 8-of-8 targets for 75 yards, and his main competition, Dawson Knox, is out for the foreseeable future with a wrist injury.

Kincaid was already third on the team with a 13.1% target share while splitting snaps with Knox, and Knox's injury could pave the way for a full-time role. The rookie ought to be one of the main beneficiaries of Knox's vacated 11.5% share and is one of the night's top value plays.

Latavius Murray ($7,000) has logged a 44.8% snap rate over the last two games, and with Damien Harris on IR, Murray is the clear backup to James Cook. Over this span, Murray's seen the majority of red zone rushes (46.2%) but can realistically be expected to flirt with only 10 or so total opportunities, which is what numberFire's model projects.

While Murray's likely touchdown or bust, his role gives him a reasonable shot at cashing in, and the salary is appealing.

Buffalo wideouts Khalil Shakir ($6,500), Deonte Harty ($6,000), and Trent Sherfield ($5,500) are rotational players who have all played under a third of the snaps this season. None of them average even three targets per game, so this is major dart-throw territory.

If we're rolling the dice with one, Shakir led the trio in snap rate (36.4%), route rate (42.9%), and target share (10.3%) in Week 7.

Similar to Buffalo, it's Tampa Bay's top tight end, Cade Otton ($8,000), who stands out among their lower-salaried options. Otton actually leads all of the Bucs' pass-catchers with a 96.4% snap rate, and his 81.2% route rate trails only Godwin. Admittedly, his 11.7% target share is much less exciting, though.

Next to Otton, Trey Palmer ($7,000) and Deven Thompkins ($6,500) are probably the only other pass-catchers with a reasonable shot of contributing. Both players have a 9.1% target share, but Palmer gets significantly more run. In Week 7, Palmer had a 64.6% snap rate and 68.9% route rate, whereas Thompkins was below 30% in both categories.

Behind Rachaad White, backup running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn ($7,500) is projected for just a handful of opportunities, and Chase Edmonds ($5,000) could further complicate things after coming off the IR. They're difficult to trust.

Of the kickers and defenses, the favored home side should have game script working in its favor, though we aren't exactly getting much of a discount on the Buffalo D/ST ($10,000). Mayfield is actually tied for the league's second-lowest sack rate (3.8%), but he's also thrown a pick in four straight games. The Tampa Bay D/ST ($8,500) could be a sneaky play given how erratic Josh Allen has been.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.