The big question surrounding Thursday's game is whether Trevor Lawrence will be under center for the Jacksonville Jaguars against the New Orleans Saints. Recent reports suggest that Lawrence will play, though. The over/under is just 40.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Saints are 1.5-point home favorites.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

With Jacksonville's quarterback situation up in the air and Derek Carr ($14,000) looking pretty pedestrian these days, it's the running backs who stand out most at MVP.

Alvin Kamara ($15,000) has seen ridiculous volume, averaging 17.3 rushes and 8.3 targets in his three games. Jamaal Williams is expected to be activated from the IR, which could put a dent in Kamara's rushing workload, but that passing-game usage isn't going anywhere.

While Kamara hasn't had a true ceiling game yet, he's turned all those opportunities into 14.9, 17.2, and 13.9 FanDuel points despite scoring just one touchdown.

On the other hand, Jaguars lead back Travis Etienne ($15,500) has gone on a touchdown binge, scoring two in each of the last two games for 34.4 and 21.8 FanDuel points. He's averaging 18.8 carries and 4.0 targets per game, so his workload is nothing to sneeze at, either. If Trevor Lawrence ($16,000) is out, it's likely the Jags lean on Etienne even more.

But if Lawrence is in fact active, he naturally joins the MVP conversation. While the signal-caller has been mostly just "okay" from a fantasy perspective, he shouldn't have to worry about scrambling on his bum knee due to the Saints being among the worst teams at generating pressure.

That being said, the flip side of that means we aren't likely to get much rushing upside from Lawrence, which is noteworthy for a QB averaging a solid 5.5 carries and 24.5 rushing yards per game. Despite the Saints' lack of pressure on defense, they're still the sixth-best against the pass, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

All of that is a strike against Lawrence's upside. But in what is projecting as a low-scoring game, he still rates as one of the better MVP plays.

Carr slots in here by default, but it's tough to get excited about a quarterback who scored below 10 FanDuel points in half his starts and has zero rushing ability. Still, by virtue of his position, he projects for roughly the same number of points as Lawrence, Kamara, and Etienne. He's a more suitable flex, but we can't rule out scenarios where he emerges as the top scorer.

If we're picking a wideout to emerge with the slate's top score, it's Chris Olave ($12,000). Olave leads the Saints in target share (25.2%), air yards share (39.3%), and end zone target share (35.3%). He's seen double-digit targets in four of six games, and in all four he scored double-digit FanDuel points.

Flex Breakdown

C.J. Beathard ($10,000) will get the start for the Jaguars if Lawrence can't go. He hasn't made a start since 2020, but there's value in rostering a flex quarterback at this low of a salary.

Jacksonville's top pass-catchers are Calvin Ridley ($11,500), Christian Kirk ($11,000), and Evan Engram ($8,500), and we'll obviously much prefer Lawrence throwing to them.

While Ridley is more likely to have an MVP-caliber performance than Kirk, it's actually the latter who has the edge in target share at 23.6% to the former's 21.2%. Ridley's edge comes from having the higher air yards share (38.4% vs. 26.4%) and red zone target share (33.3% vs. 16.7%).

Engram is an appealing value play, as his 21.2% target share is actually identical to Ridley's. While his targets are more of the dink and dunk variety, he's getting enough yards after the catch to average a respectable 50.2 receiving yards per game.

Jamal Agnew ($6,000) has been the third wideout when Zay Jones is inactive, but he still played just 30.6% of the snaps last week. In the same situation in Week 3, he did log over half the snaps and saw a season-high five targets, though. He could be worth a dart throw.

For New Orleans, Michael Thomas ($10,000) and Rashid Shaheed ($9,500) are the best non-Olave wideouts. Thomas has a 22.4% target share, 25.3% air yards share, and 25.0% red zone target share this season. Shaheed's 12.9% target share is meh, but he's on par with Thomas in air yards share (24.5%). Despite the infrequent targets, Shaheed has scored 16-plus FanDuel points twice.

Taysom Hill ($8,000) and Foster Moreau ($6,500) will split the snaps at tight end. The unpredictable Hill is probably the more interesting option after getting an uptick in route participation rate (62.3%) in Week 6, helping him to a 17.4% target share. Hill's gadget role hasn't led to much fantasy success yet this year, but we always see him blow up for a big game at some point.

The return of Jamaal Williams ($7,500) could lead to him being a touchdown vulture at the goal line, which is enough to put him in play despite an uncertain workload.

In a potential low-scoring game, kickers Blake Grupe ($8,500) and Brandon McManus ($9,500) are more viable, particularly in a dome. The Jacksonville D/ST ($9,000) lines up well against Carr, who's thrown just 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions and has a fairly high 7.8% sack rate. The New Orleans D/ST ($9,000) is only intriguing if Lawrence is out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.