FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 7 Sunday Night (Dolphins at Eagles)

We'll learn a lot about two projected Super Bowl favorites in this one. The high-octane Miami Dolphins offense will head north to battle the reigning NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night in a stylistic clash for the ages.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Eagles are a 2.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 51.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

You really can't start an MVP discussion for an Eagles single-game slate without Jalen Hurts ($17,000) when he's got perhaps the most touchdown equity of any player in the NFL.

In addition to passing against numberFire's 11th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense, Hurts' rushing upside is obvious and intentional with Philadelphia's "Brotherly Shove". Hurts has five rushing scores in six games, and Miami is the fifth-worst rush defense in those same rankings. The concern is that Hurts' efficiency (-0.03 expected points added per drop back; 13th-best EPA/db in the NFL min. four starts) hasn't been special, but he's also faced fairly stiff competition to this point.

Despite recent outbursts at home against bad defenses, I'm personally not as high on the Dolphins with poor weather expected on Sunday. We saw their offense struggle in Week 4 against the Buffalo Bills and another front four with size and physicality. Tua Tagovailoa ($15,500) posted -0.23 EPA/db in that game, and he's down offensive linemen entering this matchup when Philly is still tied for 11th in the NFL in pressure rate (31%). I'd proceed with caution that Tagovailoa's insane efficiency in recent weeks travels here.

To me, that leaves three more MVP candidates to consider. They are Tyreek Hill ($16,500), A.J. Brown ($13,500), and D'Andre Swift ($12,000).

With concerns about their offensive line and the weather, Hill still gets to attack numberFire's fifth-worst pass defense on paper. Even if Tua isn't at his best, Hill has a 30.1% target share and has seen 126.7 air yards per game this season. It truly takes a single pass for the speedster to enter MVP contention, and a good way to work around the Eagles' chalk options could be to put him at the multiplier with a Philly-heavy build otherwise.

I envisioned Brown in a "your turn, my turn" situation all season with DeVonta Smith ($11,000), but the former Mississippi Rebels wideout has taken command of this passing game. He's up to a 29.8% target share in 2023, and he's even drawn more air yards per game than Hill (140.1). Smith is banged up with a hamstring issue entering this one, so it'd be a surprising week for that trend to reverse.

Finally, I do see the Birds' lead back, Swift, in this conversation. His snap rate (54.5%) was down last week, but he still saw 10 carries and 10 targets against a talented New York Jets defense that, obviously, will limit efficiency. If the Eagles jump out to an early lead, Swift piled up 305 total rushing yards in Weeks 2 and 3 during Philadelphia's last two contests with a truly positive script.

Flex Breakdown

It might come as a surprise to many that I left Raheem Mostert ($14,000) out of the MVP mix, but personally, the time to sell the veteran is now.

He's on pace for 31 touchdowns as the backfield has been largely vacated. Jeff Wilson ($8,000) will make his season debut in this game, and while he once was battling De'Von Achane for carries, Achane is now on injured reserve. Mostert saw 60.0% of the backfield snaps last week, but the Eagles are an above-average defense against the rush (14th in the NFL) in numberFire's metrics, and touchdowns eventually stop happening. If Mostert doesn't score, he's probably not optimal at a $14,000 salary.

Jaylen Waddle ($11,500) is another Dolphin that wouldn't be a wild choice at MVP, but he's comfortably worked behind Hill all season with just a 21.2% target share. The argument for him is largely derived from his own ability and Philadelphia shading more attention to Hill -- both of which are plausible. He's not exactly a "buy-low" proposition when waddling after touchdowns in two straight weeks before this, but I do see his appeal as a flex play in the mid-range.

Nursing the hamstring issue, I just am not sure I'll get to DeVonta Smith in this single-game setting. Not at full speed, his 13.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is usually part of the appeal, and hamstrings are also notorious for mid-game recurrence, sinking a potential lineup trying to be contrarian. Dallas Goedert ($10,000) actually has a higher target share in the past two weeks (22.1%) than Smith (20.8%), so he might be the better option if fading Brown from this passing game.

Things dry up considerably from there. A dart at Wilson having a substantial role in Miami's backfield could pay huge rewards if he scores, but other than him, Olamide Zaccheaus ($7,500) and Durham Smythe ($7,000) were the only other players with an on-field pulse last week.

Intriguingly, Zaccheaus ran 85.1% of Philadelphia's routes in a neutral script in Week 6, but his ineffectiveness is likely why the team brought in Julio Jones for future weeks; Olamide only merited two targets and caught one of them. Smythe has been a cardio machine all season, and that was no different last week. Despite running 65.7% of the routes, he saw just one target. I don't really have interest in either.

Wet, windy conditions could complicate matters for the kickers, but I'd lean toward the home side if needing one. Jake Elliott ($9,500) has been busier this year; Philly is converting red-zone opportunities to touchdowns at the 10th-worst rate in the NFL (45.5%). Miami (80.8%) in the best team in the NFL in that category, so Jason Sanders ($9,000) has amazingly attempted just one field goal since Week 2.

Projecting a Philadelphia lead, the Eagles D/ST ($9,500) isn't hard to argue for from memory; they did lead the NFL in sacks (70) a year ago while returning most of their key pass-rushers. I do think they can force Tagovailoa into more sacks and mistakes than normal. Of course, if you're buying the on-field evidence from 2023, the Dolphins D/ST ($8,500) are viable, as well. Jalen Hurts already has seven interceptions -- three of them coming last week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.