FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Thursday Night (Broncos at Chiefs)

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in Week 6's opening matchup, and it's hard to see this one being competitive. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites in a game with a fairly high 47.5 total. Note that there are high winds in tonight's forecast, which could affect the passing and kicking games.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Given the lack of trustworthy alternatives, I expect Patrick Mahomes ($18,000) to be an immensely popular MVP.

Not only is Kansas City expected to roll against a struggling opponent, but the unpredictable week-to-week usage of Mahomes' wideouts realistically leaves just Travis Kelce ($14,000) and Isiah Pacheco ($13,500) as the only other Chiefs who might surpass his score in a blowout.

But the reality is that we still haven't seen a true spike week from Mahomes yet. Despite being the QB7 in FanDuel points per game, Mahomes has been more of a high-floor play thus far, averaging 20.57 points per game and topping out at 25.68 in Week 3. Perhaps the lack of a true number-one wideout is finally catching up to the Chiefs.

Mahomes might not need one against these Broncos, though. Denver has been sliced and diced by opposing QBs, ranking 32nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, while giving up the second-most FanDuel points per game to the position.

Additionally, it's not like Mahomes himself hasn't performed well, as he ranks fourth among starters in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back. He'll be the chalk by a mile, but it's justified.

Kelce is a logical pivot, but he's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. As the Chiefs' only reliable pass-catcher, the tight end leads the team with a 25.7% target share and is second with a 23.3% air yards share, but he's also played just 65.8% of the snaps due in part to his injuries this year.

Although we've yet to see Kelce reach 100 receiving yards in a game, he's tops on KC in both red zone target share (29.6%) and end zone target share (50.0%), and he's scored in three of his four games. Assuming he's active and close to 100%, Kelce could have his best 2023 performance yet.

The Broncos are also terrible against the run, ranking 31st in adjusted rush defense and allowing the most FanDuel points per game to running backs, so we could also see Pacheco eat.

The lead back's playing time has been on the rise, and over the past two games, he's averaged 18.0 carries and 2.0 targets per game while logging 60.8% of the snaps. Pacheco's also been the goal-line back all year, soaking up 63.0% of Kansas City's red-zone carries and leaving scraps for everyone else.

If the Chiefs dominate as expected, a multi-score game is in the realm of outcomes for Pacheco in an uber-positive game script. If the windy forecast proves to be a factor, that will only further enhance Pacheco's outlook.

On Denver, it's difficult to get super stoked about anyone in the multiplier slot other than Russell Wilson ($15,000), who is the only player projected for double-digit FanDuel points on the entire team. Wilson is actually the QB9 in FanDuel points per game, meaning he hasn't been that far off from Mahomes' fantasy production.

However, he could have a much tougher time getting going through the air against a team that's 11th in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the 8th-fewest FanDuel points per game to QBs.

Still, playing catch-up could still lead to gaudy totals -- he does have two 300-yard passing days -- and Wilson has also rushed for 56 and 49 yards in two games, so he's still showing some rushing upside as he nears his 35th birthday in November.

Considering the lopsided spread, the Broncos' signal-caller might not have as high an MVP roster percentage as we normally see from the position, so that's something to consider despite the difficult spot.

Flex Breakdown

Wilson's top pass-catchers are Courtland Sutton ($11,500) and Jerry Jeudy ($11,000), who are practically interchangeable from a usage standpoint.

In four games together, Sutton's recorded a 22.6% target share and 30.6% air yards share while Jeudy's posted marks of 20.0% and 29.7%. However, Sutton's been by far the top target near the goal line, boasting a team-high 23.8% red zone target share and 71.4% end zone target share. Jeudy is coming off a season-high 89.5% snap rate in Week 5, though, so his role could continue to improve.

Both wide receivers are strong flex plays, and if you're willing to dip into some contrarian MVP waters, I'm guessing neither one sees much attention on that front.

Of the other Denver wideouts, Marvin Mims ($7,500) is a big play waiting to happen despite a lack of playing time, while it's Brandon Johnson ($7,000) who's typically the third WR and playing roughly over half the snaps. Johnson's role has amounted to a boring 10.8% target share and 24.4 receiving yards per game, though, so he's strictly touchdown or bust.

Inexplicably, Mims has played 27.9% of the snaps but leads the team in receiving yards (246), averaging 5.59 yards per route run (YPRR). For context, that YPRR leads all wide receivers, with some guy named Tyreek Hill ranking second (4.93).

Obviously, this number would drop significantly if Mims saw the field more -- but it sure seems like he should be seeing the field more at least. He's also returned a kick for a touchdown this year. Rostering Mims requires taking a leap of faith that he either finally plays more or converts on limited opportunities, but he's absolutely worth it on a single-game slate.

Tight end Greg Dulcich ($7,500) is questionable and seems likely to return after logging a full practice. That probably renders both him and Adam Trautman ($7,000) dart throws, and even if Dulcich is a surprise scratch, Trautman wasn't very exciting anyway. With Dulcich out, he played 86.7% of the snaps but earned just 7.8% of the targets.

Broncos running back Javonte Williams ($10,500) will be active after sitting out last week, which means we could have an annoying backfield committee with Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin ($10,000), and Samaje Perine ($9,000).

When Williams last played a full game in Week 3, he led the trio with a snap rate (42.2%), carries-plus-targets (14), and scrimmage yards (65). However, McLaughlin has performed well over the last two weeks, and Perine has gotten consistent playing time regardless of who's healthy, so it's difficult to predict this distribution moving forward.

All three have gotten their share of red zone opportunities, too, so there isn't even a clear top option for a rushing score. numberFire's model projects Williams to have a similar role to what we saw in Week 3, and he's probably our best bet -- but this is still a bit of a crapshoot.

And speaking of a crapshoot, the KC wideouts are impossible to predict, as not a single one of them has a target share that reaches even 14%.

Similar to Mims, Rashee Rice ($8,500) has been the guy fantasy managers have been begging to see more time, and he leads this group with a 13.3% target share despite a meager 36.3% snap rate. His 2.79 YPRR is tops on the team, as well, and his 25.0% red zone target share trails only Kelce.

Once again, rostering Rice is a leap of faith, but signs of a breakout are there if he ever gets the added work.

Beyond Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,000) and Skyy Moore ($7,500) are playing the most snaps (around 60%) but doing little with them. Justin Watson ($6,500) has a team-high 27.7% air yards share. Kadarius Toney ($8,000) has a 10.5% target share this year and saw a season-high 39.1% snap rate last week. Watson and Toney seem like the most interesting guys after Rice.

Backup running backs Jerick McKinnon ($7,500) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,500) are fringe options behind Pacheco. While McKinnon did have two receiving touchdowns in Week 3, that's hardly the norm for someone who's seeing single-digit opportunities every week. Perhaps CEH gets some garbage time work if this gets out of hand, but that's likely his only path to relevance.

In a windy game, the kickers will have an uphill battle to crack the optimal lineup. The Kansas City D/ST ($9,500) should have game script working in their favor, and Russell Wilson has the 10th-highest sack rate (8.4%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.