FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 6 Sunday Night (Giants at Bills)

In what was supposed to be an exciting night for Brian Daboll, the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year, when returning to his old stomping grounds, the New York Giants' unbelievably poor injury luck has taken a majority of the drama out of this Sunday night contest against the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills are a 15.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 43.5 points. That's right; the Giants' implied team total is 14.0 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

As you'd expect, we're realistically looking at the Bills' side for MVP candidates in a game they're projected to win going away.

Josh Allen ($17,500) was the optimal single-game MVP in last week's London game, and Allen just continues to cruise with that Week 1 stinker behind him. His 0.24 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) are third-best among all qualifying starters, and we know he'll add on the ground (24.0 yards per game and 3 total rushing scores), too.

When he's gone to the air, it's usually been in the area of Stefon Diggs ($16,000). Diggs' 29.0% target share easily leads all pass-catchers on this slate, and they're valuable, deep targets when he's also averaging 113.0 air yards per game.

Any hope for the G-Men to compete would involve slowing Allen and Diggs down; they're actually numberFire's 10th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. Between a tougher-than-advertised matchup, the huge spread, and iffy Buffalo weather, I could actually see a bold, contrarian fade of the duo at MVP working in tournaments.

My two favorite ways to fade them are James Cook ($11,000) and with the Buffalo D/ST ($10,000).

Cook's role isn't perfect, but he's still their lead option with 45.9% of the backfield carries this year. The Giants are just 18th in numberFire's metrics as a rush defense, so it's a more forgiving matchup, and Cook leads Buffalo in percentage of red-zone opportunities (22.9%) in the past three weeks.

It's pretty easy to see Buffalo's wounded defense still having plenty of success here. The Giants lead the league in sacks surrendered (30), and they've also given up the highest pressure rate in the NFL (34%). That'll figure to force Tyrod Taylor ($13,500) into key mistakes that could be returned for six, as well.

Flex Breakdown

As of this writing, Saquon Barkley ($14,500) is questionable to play, and I just don't see his MVP upside if he's not 100%.

Buffalo's rush defense is the 11th-worst in numberFire's schedule-adjusted ranks, so I'd be all over Barkley -- who played 82.8% of the Giants' snaps in the first two weeks -- as a contrarian multiplier choice if healthy. He's still a fine flex play that figures to see as much action as possible to assist Taylor. The banged-up offensive line should hinder his production, too.

Taylor figures to trail, and the former Buffalo QB has averaged a modest 0.11 EPA/db in limited, mop-up action to this point. Under constant duress, he can move -- evidenced by 14 rushing scores in his time as the Bills' starter. I don't want to write him off from flex consideration, but it'd be a massive upset if he outperformed Jones' 12.2-FanDuel-point-per-game average given the circumstances.

Despite the matchup and conditions, if Buffalo gets out front, Gabriel Davis ($12,000) could be the reason why given his 87.5% route rate and knack for big plays. Still, Davis has scored 4 touchdowns on his last 22 targets and has just a 15.6% target share overall. Sticking to the process, that's a textbook oversalaried guy in DFS with an unfavorable script.

If the G-Men totally shut things down, Darren Waller ($10,500) could join Barkley on the bench due to a groin injury, but Waller has eclipsed seven targets in three of his last four games. It's hard to know if Taylor will have the same preference, but the script does favor him just as it did in last week's 8-catch, 86-yard effort against the Miami Dolphins.

Matt Breida ($9,500) and Eric Gray ($5,500) split the backfield in snaps pretty evenly in Barkley's absence last week, but Gray, the rookie, is probably going to be the rushing lead before too long. He did amass 12 carries to Brieda's 9; Gray is just seen as a liability in pass protection at this stage. The rook's salary allows you to go nuts at Buffalo's top guys should you choose to do so.

At the very least, New York's wideout room is shrinking a bit. Darius Slayton ($8,500) and Wan'Dale Robinson ($8,500) were the only ones to top 30 snaps last week with at least 45 snaps a piece. That was a noted decrease for Isaiah Hodgins ($7,500), who also saw just two targets.

Both of Buffalo's tight ends -- Dawson Knox ($7,500) and Dalton Kincaid ($7,000) -- are questionable on the injury report, but one would likely be in an every-down role if they were to start without the other. New York is allowing the fifth-fewest adjusted FanDuel points per target to opposing tight ends, so this isn't a matchup I'd turn to if both were active.

Even though this could be a game Buffalo is salting away, starting Latavius Murray ($8,000) or Damien Harris ($6,000) with confidence is impossible. While I'd personally lean this is a lower-scoring game within shouting distance, if you project a Bills blowout, it is worth mentioning that in a Week 4 blowout of Miami, Buffalo gave James Cook 12 carries, Harris got 6, and Murray got 4. At the lower salary, Harris is a better process play.

At kicker, it's hard to love Tyler Bass ($9,000) when Buffalo is converting red zone trips to touchdowns at the second-highest rate in the NFL (72.7%). The Giants convert at the eighth-worst rate (45.5%), so this reduced, injured version could score pretty exclusively through the right foot of Graham Gano ($9,000) as a contrarian pivot because of the lower implied total.

Last but not least, if you believe in miracles, the New York Giants D/ST ($8,000) likely needs a defensive score to win the game with how lopsided the offenses are, and it's not like Josh Allen (25 turnovers since the start of 2022) isn't good for a few mistakes from time to time. I'd guess they're all but ignored.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.