FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 Thursday Night (Bears at Commanders)

Week 5 opens with a matchup between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders that has a very Thursday Night Football feel to it. Per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Commanders are 6.0-point home favorites over the winless Bears, and the over/under is at a middling 44.5. Frankly, this spot could use some single-game fantasy goodness to spice things up.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

According to numberFire's model, quarterbacks Justin Fields ($17,000) and Sam Howell ($15,500) are projected for the most FanDuel points by a fairly wide margin, and it's actually Howell who ranks first.

Despite all his issues this season, the case for Fields at MVP is straightforward as a dual-threat QB. He's averaging 7.0 carries for 33.5 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game, and that includes getting 42.9% of the rushes in the red zone.

While Field's struggles as a passer are well-documented, he set career-highs in passing yards (335) and passing touchdowns (4) in Week 4 versus the Denver Broncos, helping him to easily his best fantasy performance this year (28.9 points).

However, he'll have a much more difficult time duplicating that kind of output against the Commanders' defense. Per numberFire's metrics, Denver is 32nd in adjusted pass defense, whereas Washington is 6th. The Broncos are also one of the worst teams at generating pressure, while the Commanders are tied for seventh in sacks (13).

Yet Fields shouldn't be counted out, as Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and even Russell Wilson have all been able to run against this defense. He'll likely be the chalk in this slot tonight.

Howell has been sacked a league-high 24 times, but he should have a clean pocket against a Bears D that's generated just 2 sacks through four games. Outside of a stinker against the Buffalo Bills, he's scored 16-plus FanDuel points in each of his other three games, and his best performance came against that poor Broncos squad (21.26 points).

As someone who hasn't shown an amazing ceiling yet, we might normally relegate Howell to flex status. But he added 40 rushing yards to his line last week, and that might not be a fluke considering he ran for 828 yards and 11 scores in his last year at North Carolina. The stars could also be aligning for Howell, as Chicago's secondary is riddled with injuries and is 31st in adjusted pass defense to begin with.

If we're looking to navigate away from the high MVP roster percentages of these QBs, Brian Robinson ($14,000) and Terry McLaurin ($12,000) are the top alternatives on Washington.

Although Robinson doesn't have as hefty a workload as some lead backs, he's averaged 15.3 carries and 1.8 targets per game with a 52.0% snap share, and the game script should be in his favor on the home favorite. His 57.1% red zone rush share leads the team by a sizable margin, too.

Given his modest passing game usage, Robinson likely needs a little touchdown luck to be the optimal MVP -- but he did score twice on his way to 27.9 FanDuel points in Week 2.

If Howell throws all over the Bears as expected, then McLaurin will be the most likely candidate to benefit. The wideout leads Washington's pass-catchers with a 19.8% target share and 26.2% air yards share, and he possesses an impressive 17.2% catch rate over expected (CROE).

McLaurin set season-highs in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (86) last week. It wouldn't be shocking to see him crack 100 receiving yards for the first time this season.

On Chicago's side, D.J. Moore ($12,500) and Khalil Herbert ($11,000) are also potential MVPs, but they come with much more risk considering how much this offense has sputtered outside of the Broncos game.

Moore is tied for a team-high 20.7% target share, but what makes him an attractive play is his 39.2% air yards share. Even amidst Fields' struggles, Moore has surpassed 100 yards twice already.

After lackluster results through three weeks, Herbert dominated the backfield work in Week 4, logging a 78.6% snap share, 18 rush attempts, and 5 targets. The end result was 122 scrimmage yards and a score, so he has potential if Chicago keeps this close. Washington is just 23rd in adjusted rush defense, per numberFire.

We've seen quite a few fantasy defenses go nuts in these island games, and it's certainly possible that the Washington D/ST ($9,500) joins that list. Fields already has 17 sacks, 5 interceptions, and 4 fumbles this season, so the Commanders should have plenty of opportunities to accumulate fantasy points if Chicago is forced into a negative game script.

Flex Breakdown

Jahan Dotson ($9,000) is one of the slate's most enticing plays.

Not only does he come at a discounted salary, but his usage isn't all that different from McLaurin, as Dotson carries a 19.1% target share and 22.4% air yards share. He also has team-highs in both red zone target share (26.7%) and end zone target share (30.0%). Dotson's 82.8% snap rate is actually slightly higher than McLaurin's (80.9%), too.

The difference is that Dotson's failed to turn that into fantasy production. He hasn't exceeded 40 receiving yards in a game thus far, and he would've been held to single-digit FanDuel points for the fourth time last week had he not scored on the final play of regulation.

Despite that, facing a poor and banged-up pass defense could be the panacea he needs to finally stuff the stat sheet. Given that Dotson will likely have a nonexistent MVP roster percentage, I'm not against sprinkling him in as a contrarian choice for the multiplier slot.

Washington's other noteworthy options are Curtis Samuel ($10,500), Antonio Gibson ($7,500), and Logan Thomas ($7,000).

At the slate's seventh-highest salary, Samuel is a tough sell, as his 15.3% target share and 12.3% air yards share are more befitting of a player in the value range. He was also limited in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. Other than rostering him to be different, Samuel is probably someone to mostly avoid.

Gibson has played second fiddle to Brian Robinson, averaging just 3.3 rushes and 2.5 targets per game while playing 44.9% of the snaps. He's viable as a value play in case he's utilized in the passing game tonight, but the limited role is also hard to get excited about.

Thomas is one of the better low-salaried plays, as his involvement is similar to Samuel. The tight end owns a 13.7% target share and 13.4% air yards share, and his 66.7% route participation rate is just barely behind Samuel's 72.6%.

On Chicago, Cole Kmet ($10,000), Darnell Mooney ($8,500), Roschon Johnson ($7,500), and Equanimeous St. Brown ($6,000) are others to have on your radar.

Kmet is actually tied with D.J. Moore in target share (20.7%), and his air yards share is good for a tight end (19.2%). He also leads the team with a 23.1% red zone target share. At this cap hit, he's probably not a priority but is very much in play.

With Chase Claypool out of the picture, Mooney ran 92.3% of the routes in Week 4, but it amounted to just a 12.5% target share. Still, he could play a valuable role if the Bears are playing catch-up, and he's projected for roughly five targets.

After splitting work with Herbert in the first three games, Roschon Johnson saw his snap rate plummet to 21.4% last week, leaving him with only 5 rushes and a single target. At this point, he's probably a dart throw at best.

Taking Claypool's open spot, St. Brown was active for the first time in Week 4 and ran roughly half the routes as the third wideout. However, he only logged one target. While he's probably a touchdown-or-bust play, this budget salary could go a long way.

As kickers often do, Joey Slye ($9,000) and Cairo Santos ($8,500) project as good values, though chances are we need a lower-scoring game for either one to crack the optimal lineup.

Finally, this bottom-of-the-barrel Chicago D/ST ($8,000) is difficult to recommend despite facing a QB averaging six sacks per game. But Washington tends to pass at a high rate, so it's theoretically possible the Bears get a lucky turnover or two -- just don't count on it.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.