FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 5 International Series (Jaguars at Bills)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stayed across the pond for Week 5, and that's because they've got a showdown with the Buffalo Bills: two teams that we believed could contend for the AFC's crown before the season. I'd say that might be worth an early alarm and some coffee.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 48.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

The Jaguars haven't exactly been who we thought they were. Through four games, they've got numberFire's 7th-best scheduled-adjusted defense, but they're 13th-worst on the offensive side of the ball. At this point, Buffalo rates as the model's top overall defense, so they'll have an uphill climb to turn things around this week.

Two excellent defenses could limit the shootout potential of this game, but across the board, Jacksonville's is still the weaker of the two. That, of course, brings the white-hot duo of Josh Allen ($16,500) and Stefon Diggs ($16,000) to the forefront of our MVP consideration.

Allen is now FanDuel Sportsbook's shortest number in their NFL MVP odds market (+350) behind the third-best mark among qualifiers (0.24) in the NFL's Next Gen Stats' expected points added per drop back (EPA/db). He's been sensational, and we know he can contribute on the ground with 26.5 yards per game and 2 total touchdowns this season. He'll be the most popular choice on the slate.

Diggs is a bit more of a surprise because, last season, he had more individual quiet efforts as Allen spread the ball around. He's dominated Buffalo's wideout touches with a 29.8% target share this season. He's seen 4.5 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game and 1.8 red zone targets per game, so the touchdowns (four in as many games) can absolutely continue.

Last week, I had a pass-catcher from the Jags' side on the MVP radar, but as their target tree thins out, I believe we're down to Trevor Lawrence ($15,000) and Travis Etienne ($14,000) from their side as contrarian MVP choices.

Entering one of the most brutal passing matchups in the sport, Touchdown Trevor has sooner been Turnover Trevor in 2023. He's posted an abysmal -0.19 EPA/db, but there is a volume component to his MVP candidacy. If the Jaguars are behind and trailing, this is a former top pick who topped 300 passing yards four times last year and added five total rushing scores. There's absolutely a chance he puts up monster numbers.

Trailing might also be a good thing for Etienne, who disappointed last week in what should have been a perfect script against the Atlanta Falcons. He averaged just 2.8 YPC on 17 carries and only drew 3 targets. Still, the matchup could produce fruit for him relative to the Jags' passing attack; the Bills are actually numberFire's 13th-worst schedule-adjusted rush D.

Flex Breakdown

Frankly, I'd love to put Calvin Ridley ($13,000) in the MVP mix, but Ridley hasn't separated from the rest of the Jags' skill players as much as you'd have hoped to contend with those four.

Though the lopsided script against Atlanta played a part, he drew just two targets last week and -- luckily for fantasy managers -- scored on one of them. He and Christian Kirk ($10,000) ran the same number of routes, and Evan Engram ($8,500) ran three fewer. Because of salary, Ridley may actually be the lowest rostered of this trio with a 36.1% share of the team's air yards this season. His upside is especially appealing in tournaments.

Engram and Kirk are low average depth of target (aDOT) options with touchdown upside, and it's hard to shy away from their value salaries if targeting Lawrence and a negative script, but things could get extremely messy with both Zay Jones ($8,000) and Jamal Agnew ($7,000) expected back this week. Jones had a 77.1% snap share in the first three weeks, so he's pretty appealing if we get no reports about a pitch count for him.

The Bills' passing game is moving in an opposite direction. Only Gabriel Davis ($12,500) and Dalton Kincaid ($7,000) eclipsed 15 routes on the team -- though it was a largely decided game in the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins. Davis has scored 3 times on 18 total targets; I understand his upside because of his ability to make one target worth 10-plus FanDuel points, but that's largely always going to be a guy who is oversalaried.

However, Buffalo's backfield is even worse than before. James Cook ($10,500) played 41.4% of the snaps last week with Latavius Murray ($8,000) at 33.9% and Damien Harris ($6,500) at 25.0%. You'd have thought the younger Cook would have received more late carries, but this thing should stay a committee facing numberFire's 14th-best rush D. In closer games, Cook got 23.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets) per game in Weeks 2 and 3, so I understand the attention he'll get at this salary.

To round out position players, I'm cool leaving Dawson Knox ($7,500) and Tank Bigsby ($7,500) behind as touchdown-or-bust options. Knox hasn't topped three catches this year with a declining snap rate, and Bigsby's role theoretically would have expanded in last week's extremely positive script, but he earned just three carries.

The higher total in this game doesn't imply kickers are supremely valuable, but Brandon McManus ($9,000) could continue to produce if Jacksonville continues to struggle in the red zone (44.4% touchdown rate) against a great defense. He posted 14 FanDuel points against Atlanta. Tyler Bass ($9,000) has also eclipsed double-digit FanDuel points in three of his four games.

Despite being solid units between the 20s, there's not a high-octane, top-10 pass rush (by pressure rate) on either side, and both of these offensive lines are bottom 15 in pressure rate allowed. I don't see a dominant effort from either the Buffalo D/ST ($9,500) or Jacksonville D/ST ($8,500) and -- in conjunction with the high total -- will likely leave both on the sidelines.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.