FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Thursday Night (Lions at Packers)

Thursday's game is expected to be a tight one at Lambeau Field, with the visiting Detroit Lions favored by 2.5 points over the Green Bay Packers, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. The over/under falls somewhere in the middle this week at 45.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

There are a lot of moving parts on the injury front, but Jordan Love ($16,000) leads the way in numberFire's projections and figures to be the most popular MVP and flex play on the slate.

Love has cracked 20 FanDuel points in all three weeks thus far, and he most recently logged 9 carries for 39 yards and a rushing score, a promising sign for his upside moving forward. However, his 7 passing touchdowns are probably a bit flukey for someone averaging just 218.3 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt.

Between some touchdown regression and his expected popularity, there's a case that Love is more suitable as a flex play in tournaments, but we also can't rule out another 20-plus-point performance if last week's rushing output is a sign of things to come.

Jared Goff ($15,500) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($14,000) have the best projections among Lions players.

Goff is averaging the league's third-most passing yards per attempt (8.0), but as a pure pocket passer, he likely needs 300-plus passing yards and multiple scores to lead the slate in scoring. If choosing between the two quarterbacks, Love is my preferred MVP.

Compared to the signal-callers, St. Brown shouldn't see anywhere near the same MVP roster percentage, making him an ideal candidate for the multiplier slot.

Although we haven't seen a true spike week from Detroit's top wideout yet, his role as a target hog has remained intact this year. St. Brown is averaging 9.3 targets per game while soaking up a 28.9% target share, 30.8% air yards share, and 57.1% red zone target share. He's averaging 93.0 scrimmage yards yards per game, yet he has just one touchdown thus far. Bigger fantasy days are ahead.

Things get a little tricky after those three, as the health of several players will have a major impact.

For the Lions, David Montgomery ($12,500) is expected to be back tonight "as the lead back," so Jahmyr Gibbs ($12,000) figures to return to the role we saw in Week 2. Prior to his injury, Montgomery logged a 64.3% snap share that week, whereas Gibbs played 35.7% of the snaps.

Both players are projected for double-digit FanDuel points, with Montgomery having the edge in rushing work and Gibbs seeing the larger pass-catching role. The split backfield makes them risky bets at MVP, but neither one should see a particularly high MVP roster percentage, either.

On Green Bay's side, we should see the returns of Aaron Jones ($13,500) and Christian Watson ($11,500).

While there's the risk that Jones will see a reduced role in his first game back, he played 75.0% of the first-half snaps before getting hurt in Week 1, and even with the mid-game injury, he still finished with 127.0 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns. He's an exciting MVP at what is hopefully lower popularity.

This will be Watson's first game in 2023, and he could reportedly play limited snaps, making him a potential boom-or-bust option. Once he earned a full-time role in 2022, Watson saw a 22.4% target share, 39.3% air yards share, and 30.6% red zone share over his final eight games. There was a stretch when he scored 19 or more FanDuel points in four games in a row. He's a true wild card tonight.

Flex Breakdown

Lions rookie Sam LaPorta ($10,000) has quickly emerged as one of the better fantasy tight ends, and he's coming off his best game yet (18.4 FanDuel points). He's effectively been Goff's number-two option (22.7% target share) while playing a hefty 79.7% of the snaps. A lack of downfield targets realistically keeps him out of the MVP conversation, but he's a fantastic flex play.

While Josh Reynolds ($9,500) is coming off a goose egg in Week 3, he was still second in snap share (75.0%) and had a 72.7% route participation rate. He was also dealing with a core injury, so it's possible he wasn't 100%. Prior to the dud, Reynolds had a 19.7% target share over the previous two weeks, and he should still be regarded as the second wideout behind St. Brown.

Among the remaining Detroit pass-catchers, we probably want Kalif Raymond ($8,500) over Marvin Jones ($7,000). With Reynolds disappearing last week, Raymond earned a 19.4% target share on a season-high 6 targets, and his 54.5% route participation rate was a season-best, as well. On the other hand, Jones could be getting phased out after seeing zero targets over the past two games.

On the Packers' side, Romeo Doubs ($10,500), Jayden Reed ($9,000), and Luke Musgrave ($8,000) are all viable pass-catchers, and A.J. Dillon ($11,000) will resume his role as Aaron Jones' backup.

While Doubs plays more snaps than Reed, the two have seen the exact same number of targets (21.1% share for both), and Doubs has just a slight edge in air yards share (25.5% vs. 25.1%). Given all that, Reed might be the preferred of the two at his lower salary. Both should remain prominently involved even with the return of Christian Watson, particularly if Watson is in fact on a snap count.

Tight end Luke Musgrave actually leads all Green Bay pass-catchers in snap share (83.1%) and route participation rate (83.8%), and he's third in target share (15.7%). He probably needs a touchdown to come through, but he's an appealing value.

On the other hand, Dillon is tough to roster at the eighth-highest salary. He didn't do much with his opportunities while Jones was out and now figures to see his snaps take a big hit. He could still flirt with double-digit touches, but he's really only in play to be contrarian.

There are enough mid-to-low salary plays that I'm not sure kickers or defenses are priorities tonight. Green Bay's Anders Carlson ($8,000) checks in on the low end if you need the extra savings, though.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.