FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 Monday Night (Seahawks at Giants)

Monday night's game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants ought to be a back-and-forth affair, setting the stage for a fun single-game slate. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Seattle is a 1.5-point road favorite, and the over/under is set at 47.5. Going by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, both defenses sit in the league's bottom third, too.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

With Saquon Barkley listed as doubtful, that leaves us with three healthy players with salaries of $15,000 or higher: Kenneth Walker III ($16,000), Daniel Jones ($15,500), and Geno Smith ($15,000).

Beginning with Jones, he's been boom or bust, scoring single-digit FanDuel points in two games while also going off for 31.74 points in the other.

However, those stinkers came against top defensive units, something he won't have to worry about tonight; the Seahawks are 26th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire. Jones has performed poorly as a passer by just about any metric this season, but in his ceiling game against the Arizona Cardinals, he threw for 321 yards while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, so he can get there in less imposing matchups.

Of course, it's his legs that ultimately boost his upside. Despite a quiet day on the ground last week, Jones has averaged 8.0 carries for 35.7 rushing yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game, and he's taken 46.2% of the red zone carries. While he'll likely be the chalk MVP, there's a clear path toward him leading the slate in scoring.

His counterpart, Smith, doesn't run as much, but he did rush for 20 yards in Week 2, so he isn't a zero in that area, either. There's no question he's been the better passer, though, cracking the top 10 in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back among starting QBs. The Giants are 29th in adjusted pass defense, so Smith could absolutely have a big day through the air.

The dual-threat upside of Jones arguably makes him the better bet to lead in scoring, but we can't rule out Geno carving up New York with 300-plus passing yards and multiple touchdowns.

Walker is coming off a 29.1-point performance, but he ought to see a much lower MVP roster percentage compared to the signal-callers. He's averaged 92.3 scrimmage yards off 15.7 rushes and 3.3 targets per game, and he already has 4 rushing scores this season. While his 57.6% snap share could be higher, he's clearly the preferred back in the red zone with a 65.0% red zone rush share.

Beyond those three, Seattle wideouts D.K. Metcalf ($13,000) and Tyler Lockett ($12,500) are other strong options.

While this duo isn't dominating the targets quite as much as some seasons, they remain atop the pecking order. Metcalf is showing a 19.8% target share and 37.8% air yards share, and Lockett's at 21.9% and 36.4%. Metcalf's averaging more than double the receiving yards (78.0 vs. 34.4), though, boasting a 20.1% catch rate over expected (CROE).

Metcalf is arguably the preferred MVP of the two, but Lockett's actually gotten more looks in the red zone (37.5% red zone target share), and his two-touchdown game in Week 2 helped him to 21.9 points -- the best fantasy performance of these two thus far.

Finally, Barkley's replacement, Matt Breida ($11,000), is an intriguing choice if you're looking to be contrarian without going too off the wall.

Breida saw just four carries and three targets as the starter in Week 3, but that was in a negative game script in a rough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The positive side is he played 80.4% of the snaps as the clear lead back, and he also converted on the Giants' only red zone carry. While this isn't an easy matchup against a defense that's performed well against the run, Breida could see a hefty workload if this is a tight game as expected.

Flex Breakdown

Staying with New York, Darren Waller ($11,500) has been Jones' number top pass-catcher, ranking first in target share (20.8%) and second in air yards share (25.5%). There's an outside shot of him coming through as a fringe MVP with some touchdown luck, but he's probably more suited as a rock-solid flex.

Darius Slayton ($8,500) is an appealing value play as the Giants' lead wide receiver. He leads the team's wideouts in target share (17.7%), snap share (78.1%), and route participation rate (80.4%), and he's tops on the team in air yards share (36.8%). It hasn't led to much in the box score, but if Slayton and Jones can connect on a few deep shots, he could quickly pay off his modest salary.

Isaiah Hodgins ($10,000) and Parris Campbell ($8,000) are the other top New York wideouts. Hodgins is hard to get excited about, as his five-figure salary doesn't justify a 9.4% target share. Campbell's 16.7% target share is more appealing, but the short nature of these looks has left him below 25 receiving yards in every game so far.

Campbell also saw a dip in playing time last week (41.3% snap share) due to the return of Wan'Dale Robinson ($6,500). Robinson played just 21.7% of the snaps but could continue to see that rise at the expense of Campbell. While it all makes for a murky situation, Campbell's still the more likely candidate for targets, keeping him in play as a value. Robinson warrants some exposure as a dart throw, though.

Gary Brightwell ($8,000) is worth mentioning as Breida's backup, but he logged a mere 19.6% snap share in Week 3. Although he could luck into a touchdown if Breida needs a breather while the offense is in the red zone, he shouldn't be a priority.

For Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,500) is the third wide receiver, which should pique our interest, and his 14.6% target share is decent. But similar to someone like Campbell, these are low-upside targets resulting in a 4.7% air yards share. That being said, being attached to Geno Smith is more likely to lead to production than the fringe New York receivers, so he's in the mix by default.

Kenneth Walker may be the lead back, but Zach Charbonnet ($7,500) has a meaningful role, as well, most recently seeing the field for 43.7% of the snaps while earning 9 rushes and 2 targets. He also saw 33.3% of the red zone rushes last week. He's one of the night's top overall values.

Noah Fant ($7,000) and Will Dissly ($6,000) are both questionable, potentially opening the door for Colby Parkinson ($6,000) to have a bigger role. With Dissly out last week, Parkinson played 70.4% of the snaps and Fant was at 64.8%, and they combined for nine targets. If all three are active, this might be a situation to avoid, but if one or both are out, Parkinson could be a viable low-salaried option.

If this ends up being a high-scoring game, kickers Jason Myers ($9,500) and Graham Gano ($8,500) might not do enough to be a factor, but given how many of the value pass-catchers have iffy roles, these two shouldn't be ignored entirely. Myers scored 18 FanDuel points in Week 3, hitting all five field goal attempts.

Likewise, defense isn't a priority. However, the Seattle D/ST ($9,000) could surprise if Daniel Jones is sloppy tonight. Jones already has thrown 4 interceptions and taken 12 sacks this year.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.