FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4 International Series (Falcons at Jaguars)

The NFL's 2023 International Series kicks off with a familiar look. The Jacksonville Jaguars are back in London as they have been every year since 2012. They're happy to be away after last week's ugly loss to the Houston Texans at home. The Atlanta Falcons likely don't mind heading across the pond, either, considering their lopsided road defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions in Week 3.

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Jaguars are a 3.0-point favorite in this one, and its projected total is 43.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Any time that one of the game's better quarterbacks is on the slate, you'll have to consider them at MVP.

Trevor Lawrence ($15,000) is still looking to find his footing in 2023, and I'm not entirely certain this is the spot. Per NFL's Next Gen Stats, his -0.27 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) is 26th among quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts, and he's melted down in each of the last two contests. Atlanta's 19th-ranked pass defense (per numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings) is a decent measuring stick to see where he's at.

That's likely why the tandem of running backs -- Travis Etienne ($16,000) and Bijan Robinson ($15,500) -- lead this slate in salary.

On the favored side, it's hard to argue with Etienne's workload, amassing 29.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus double targets) in last week's blowout. Other than goal-line sightings of Tank Bigsby ($8,500), he's their every-down back getting passing work, and that's single-game upside in a nutshell. It's still a bit concerning that Bigsby got last week's only red zone carry.

That's why I prefer Bijan, who -- let's be clear -- faces similar concerns with Tyler Allgeier ($11,000). However, the difference is Robinson still has some presence in the red zone (28.6% rush share), and he's lethally efficient with every touch at 1.86 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry. Robinson logged a season-high 80.0% of the snaps and ran 88.1% of the team's routes as the rookie is now fully up to speed.

Two other considerations are Calvin Ridley ($14,000) and Desmond Ridder ($13,500), yet both will need a top-shelf outcome from their range to be worth the multiplier.

In a revenge spot, Ridley is looking to return to his Week 1 production rate. He led the team in routes (33) and drew 34.4% of Lawrence's targets en route to 20.1 FanDuel points. He's since fallen behind Christian Kirk ($12,500) in route volume, but with Zay Jones (knee) sitting this game out, the two might be able to co-exist the best they have all season. Ridley still has superior upside with 5.0 targets at least 10 yards downfield per game -- and 1.7 in the red zone.

As for Ridder, he'll likely have to get back to using his legs to pay off the MVP spot. He rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, and surprisingly, he's been the more efficient quarterback (-0.21 EPA/db) of these two -- not that it's been pretty, either. Atlanta's dreadful pass rate over expectation just significantly limits the single-game upside for passing components in their offense.

Flex Breakdown

The aforementioned Kirk leads the best of the rest, drawing 20 targets in the past two weeks and now in a role without Jones. Evan Engram ($9,500) also has eclipsed Ridley (15) with 16 looks in this period, but these two are ultimately dependent on touchdowns for fantasy spikes. Both have average depth of target (aDoT) marks below 8.0, leaving the downfield role to Calvin. They'll work in the same passable matchup that Lawrence will navigate.

Drake London ($12,000) is Atlanta's only consistent threat at wideout, but the former top-10 pick just isn't being tasked with a lot of work. He's averaged 39.4 air yards per game through Week 3, and that's even reduced from a season ago with Ridder. At his best, he can draw 10 targets and a touchdown, but you're likely hoping for a negative script in an elite matchup to get them.

Bijan's co-star, Allgeier, is getting plenty of work despite just a snap rate of 30.8% last week. He drew 13 adjusted opportunities in that time -- including pass-game work. At his salary, he'll likely be contrarian with minimal time in the huddle, but he's gotten eight red zone chances this year. That's a significant amount.

Despite a salary implying minimal work, Kyle Pitts ($8,000) -- amidst all acceptable complaints -- doesn't fit that bill currently. He drew nine targets last week. There's still issues with he and Ridder's chemistry (-12.5% catch rate over expectation), but the big-bodied tight end should work in the red zone. He hasn't scored this season but has drawn a pair of targets this year. It's the same song and dance as his entire career, but at least the opportunity cost is low here.

Bigsby and Atlanta's other targets, Mack Hollins ($8,000) and Jonnu Smith ($7,000), round out the group of truly viable on-field position players. Bigsby has three red-zone carries that have turned into two touchdowns, but that's a role the Jaguars appear to be giving him with his minuscule opportunity.

Hollins and Smith are more involved than you might think, drawing 14 targets apiece in three games with route participation above 60.0%. While still behind London and Pitts in the pecking order, they might be good for the random touchdown in tournaments.

Kind of at home, the Jags are converting red zone opportunities to touchdowns at the ninth-worst mark in the NFL (50.0%), so Brandon McManus ($9,000) might be the kicker of the two who sees more work. Younghoe Koo ($8,500) is also viable with Atlanta the 15th-worst team (55.6%) in that area.

Though I'd have a lean to the over and leaving defenses behind, the Atlanta D/ST ($8,500) is projected by Pro Football Focus to have a pretty significant advantage at the line of scrimmage in this one. You also can't cross off the Jacksonville D/ST ($9,500) after Ridder was sacked seven times last week by the upstart Lions.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.