FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 17 Thursday Night (Jets at Browns)

Week 17 opens with a Thursday night clash between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. Going by the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, the Browns are 7.0-point home favorites, and the game total is set to just 35.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

In a season filled with surprise performances from backup quarterbacks, 38-year-old Joe Flacco ($16,500) has been Cleveland's unlikely solution at quarterback with Deshaun Watson out for the season.

Flacco's been far from perfect, throwing 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but he's averaged 43.8 pass attempts across his four starts, which would easily pace the league over a full campaign. As long as he's chucking it at this high a clip, there's a volume-based path to fantasy points with even middle-of-the-pack efficiency.

That's how things have played out thus far, as Flacco has scored 17.2, 21.3, 19.9, and 26.8 FanDuel points. The bad news is that he's facing a Jets defense that's given up the fewest FanDuel points to QBs and ranks fourth versus the pass in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Still, in a matchup with such a low over/under, the quarterback of the home favorite is a logical MVP choice, albeit one who will be popular.

New York's Breece Hall ($15,000) leads all players on the slate in numberFire's projections. With Trevor Siemian ($13,500) drawing the start at quarterback in Week 16, Hall was practically the Jets' entire offense, racking up 191 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns on a whopping 20 carries and 16 targets.

The Browns have been one of the league's best defenses all year, but anyone with the potential to get that kind of workload is an easy click at MVP. As of this writing on Tuesday, Zach Wilson ($13,500) is still in the concussion protocol, likely leaving Siemian at the helm again on a short week. Like Flacco, Hall will be a chalky pick following last week's outburst.

Assuming Wilson is ruled out, Siemian's projection will presumably jump up near the top by default as a starting QB, but he's probably more flex material. He attempted 49 passes last week, yet finished with just 217 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception at home against a poor Washington Commanders defense. Now facing numberFire's top adjusted pass defense on the road, Siemian would need a lot of lucky breaks to lead the slate in scoring.

Number-one wideouts Amari Cooper ($14,500) and Garrett Wilson ($11,500) are more desirable MVPs if you forego Flacco and Hall in a lineup. Neither one has a great matchup -- the Jets and Browns have given up the fewest and third-fewest FanDuel points to WRs, respectively -- but both players should be target magnets.

Over three healthy starts with Flacco, Cooper leads the team in target share (28.7%) and air yards (50.5%), and his fantasy outputs have gotten progressively better in each game, with scores of 9.2, 18.9, and 46.0 FanDuel points. Cooper's 265 yards last week broke the Browns' single-game receiving yards record.

Wilson isn't coming off a slate-breaking performance (11.3 FanDuel points), but he was peppered for 15 targets by Siemian last week, finishing the day with a 33.3% target share and 47.0% air yards share. Given that he saw just two downfield targets (10-plus air yards), Wilson would likely need a ton of yards after the catch to have any shot at a slate-best score, but the volume should be there at least.

Perhaps the most intriguing contrarian MVP is the Cleveland D/ST ($10,000). The Browns are the rare defense projected for double-digit FanDuel points, and they rate as numberFire's best overall unit in adjusted total defense. Siemian has averaged a dreadful 3.2 adjusted yards per attempt in limited play this season, yet he could be forced to throw as a touchdown road underdog.

The Browns have scored the fourth-most FanDuel points among defenses despite just two defensive touchdowns. With a little more TD luck, we could see this unit have a field day on Thursday.

Flex Breakdown

While Cleveland running backs Jerome Ford ($12,000) and Kareem Hunt ($9,500) both fare pretty well in numberFire's model, the split backfield caps their respective ceilings. Hunt was listed as a non-participant in Monday's practice, but he's played through a groin injury for several games, so chances are he'll be good to go.

With Flacco starting, Ford has averaged more rushes (11.0 to 9.0) and targets (4.0 to 1.8) than Hunt, and he's also played more snaps (49.8% to 35.1%). However, Hunt has taken the majority of red zone carries (54.5% to 31.8%).

New York has been much more forgiving to opposing backfields, coughing up the seventh-most FanDuel points to running backs.

Tight end David Njoku ($11,000) has enjoyed a boost in relevance with Flacco starting. Over the past three games, Njoku has earned the team's second-best target share (23.9%), and he's tied with Cooper in red zone target share (29.4%). Those looks near the goal line have led to the TE scoring four times over this stretch. Njoku could even be a sneaky contrarian MVP.

Elijah Moore ($8,000) and Cedric Tillman ($7,500) are the other viable Browns pass-catchers to consider. With Cooper and Njoku dominating targets, Moore and Tillman have been around a 10% target share apiece over the last three weeks. These two are probably touchdown or bust, but the low salaries might be needed in certain builds.

Flipping to the Jets, things go south in a hurry once we get past Hall and Wilson. Tight end Tyler Conklin ($8,000) was third behind those two in targets (7) last week, and he's projected for the slate's fifth-most (5.2). He still hasn't scored a touchdown all year, though.

Among the non-Wilson wideouts, Jason Brownlee ($7,000) and Xavier Gipson ($7,500) logged route rates of 85.7% and 67.3% in Week 16, respectively, while Allen Lazard ($6,500) was way down at 27.1%. Based on playing time, Brownlee and Gipson might be worth a dice roll as value plays, but the floor is incredibly low.

Running back Israel Abanikanda ($7,000) logged nine carries backing up Hall last week. That's probably a best-case scenario, though.

The starting kickers project as solid values in a low-scoring affair, though Cleveland's Dustin Hopkins has been ruled out, so we might not know who's kicking for the Browns until later in the week. The Jets D/ST ($9,000) are on the road, but they will get their chances for turnovers and sacks if Flacco airs it out 40-plus times yet again this week.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.