FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 16 Thursday Night (Saints at Rams)

Week 16 kicks off with the New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams on Thursday. The Rams are 4.5-point favorites, and the game has a 46.5-point over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

MVP Candidates

Rams running back Kyren Williams ($16,000) leads numberFire's projections, and he's followed closely by Matthew Stafford ($15,500).

Williams enters as this year's RB2 in FanDuel points per game (19.4). He's averaged 110.1 scrimmage yards off 17.9 rushes and 4.6 targets over his 10 games, a workload in line with Christian McCaffrey's. Kyren also boasts a 77.8% red zone rush share in those weeks. He'll be popular for sure, but it's for good reason.

Stafford has been on his best run of the season, scoring 24.4, 23.0, 23.7, and 18.5 FanDuel points over his last four, and that includes tough matchups against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. Unfortunately, the Saints aren't slouches versus the pass, coming in as numberFire's fourth-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, and we know Stafford brings nothing to the table on the ground.

Still, if Stafford can succeed in other difficult spots, he can do so here, and New Orleans doesn't have a dominant pass rush (eighth-worst pressure rate), per Pro Football Reference.

Stafford's top wideouts, Cooper Kupp ($14,500) and Puka Nacua ($12,000) also project well, though they'll have to overcome a defense that's allowed the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to WRs.

Over the last three weeks, Kupp has cracked 20 FanDuel points twice, and Nacua has done so in the other. numberFire's model projects both for roughly 8-9 targets apiece, arguably making them somewhat interchangeable. On FanDuel Sportsbook, Kupp has the higher receiving yardage prop (73.5) than Nacua (66.5), but both are pretty high marks when considering the matchup.

On New Orleans, the MVP conversation starts with Alvin Kamara($15,000). Since Jamaal Williams returned in Week 7, Kamara has averaged 13.6 rushes and 6.8 targets per game over eight games with a 61.2% snap rate. Despite Williams' presence, Kamara has seen half of the red zone rushes over this span, though Taysom Hill continues to be a regular threat to vulture touchdowns.

While Kamara's usage keeps him firmly in play at MVP, this is yet another less-than-ideal matchup. The Rams have allowed the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs, which includes giving up the fewest receiving yards to opposing backs.

Because quarterbacks touch the ball on nearly every offensive snap, we pretty much always have to consider them for the multiplier slot. Still, it's hard to get excited about Derek Carr ($14,000), who has underwhelmed for much of the season, ranking 19th of 30 qualified starters in adjusted yards per attempt. While Carr is coming off a three-touchdown game -- his first of the year -- it feels rather flukey given that he did so while throwing for just 218 yards.

As of this writing, Chris Olave ($12,500) is uncertain to play after missing last week, but he is reportedly expected to play. Across his 13 games, he leads the team in target share (25.7%), air yards share (41.5%), red zone target share (20.0%), and end zone target share (29.0%).

However, as great as the role is, Carr's modest play tends to limit Olave's ceiling. Olave could also have a difficult time versus an LA defense that's eighth in FanDuel points allowed per target to WRs. I doubt he sees a high MVP roster percentage, though, so I don't mind him as a contrarian pick.

Flex Breakdown

Of the remaining Saints, the aforementioned Taysom Hill ($10,000) is as boom or bust as ever, ranging anywhere from 0.4 to 22.0 FanDuel points this year. It technically makes him a fringe MVP, but he's just as likely to completely sink your entire lineup. After playing on limited snaps last week -- likely due to injuries he's recovering from -- we should see him more involved in his typical multi-faceted role. He's a wild card you may or may not want to touch.

Rashid Shaheed ($9,500) and Juwan Johnson ($8,000) project as the top New Orleans pass-catchers after Olave. Shaheed has a 13.8% target share this year while Johnson is at 11.3%.

Shaheed can occasionally pop for strong fantasy performances when Carr connects with him on deep shots -- but they're few and far between. Johnson is touchdown or bust; LA has given up the fourth-most FanDuel points to tight ends, though.

Lynn Bowden Jr. ($6,500) has seen a recent uptick in snaps due to injuries to other wideouts, but with both Olave and Shaheed expected to play, he might not be much of a factor. As is, he still hasn't scored even five FanDuel points in a game.

Jamaal Williams ($7,000) is also a mere dart throw. After his fruitful goal-line usage with the Detroit Lions last year, he's yet to score a TD in 2023. The combo of Kamara and Hill has left him with a sparse red-zone role

Going back to the Rams, Tyler Higbee ($7,500) has value at this salary, showing a 14.4% target share over the three games he's been active during Stafford's hot stretch. However, he's scored two touchdowns all year, and they came in the same game.

Tutu Atwell ($7,500) will be back from a concussion and figures to split playing time in some capacity with Demarcus Robinson ($8,500). Atwell projects slightly better of the two, but Robinson's taken advantage of his increased snaps lately with a touchdown in three straight.

Between the kickers and defenses, Rams kicker Lucas Havrisik ($9,000) projects the best on the home favorite. He's secured double-digit FanDuel points in two of the last three.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.