FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Divisional Round Sunday (Bucs at Lions)

The first game on Sunday features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Detroit Lions. The NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook have Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite, with the game having a total of 48.5 points. This should be a fun one, and it presents us with a lot of interesting options.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and numberFire has projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Jared Goff ($15,500) has the highest projection of any player on the slate, according to numberFire. He's projected for 2.0 points more than Amon-Ra St. Brown ($16,000), who's the only player with a higher salary than Goff.

Last week, St. Brown caught seven of Goff's 22 completions for 110 yards but didn't find the end zone. This led to Goff outscoring him by a hair -- 14.87 fantasy points to 14.5. It's hard for a WR to be the optimal captain if he doesn't score, so it might be better to go with the QB.

Amon-Ra is still a viable MVP option. He sees 29% of Detroit's targets and 20% of their end zone targets. If you think that it's a game where the Lions pepper their best player with targets, he's a good option -- especially since Goff is not a threat to add anything with rushing production.

On the Tampa side, the QB and top receiver also stand out as the best options.

Baker Mayfield ($15,000) is projected for 16.2 points, the same as St. Brown. Mayfield had his second-best fantasy game of the season last week against the Philadelphia Eagles and was the Bucs' highest scoring player. We normally think of Tampa as a team that mostly targets two players in the passing game, but they spread the ball around in that game.

If they are going to take that same approach this week, then Baker makes sense as an MVP. He had 337 passing yards last week and now faces a Lions' defense that has allowed 379.75 passing yards per game over the last four games. They also rank 30th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted pass-defense metrics.

The pass-catcher to target for the Bucs would be Mike Evans ($13,500). He didn't have a big game last week and that included two high-profile drops. He still saw 43% of the team's air yards and saw 43% of the end zone targets over the course of the season. He was the half-PPR WR5 this season and definitely has multiple touchdown games in his range outcomes.

My favorite contrarian MVP would be David Montgomery ($12,000). He saw all four of the Lions' rushing attempts inside the five yard line last week and has seen multiple attempts inside the five in each of the last four games. If he finds the end zone twice, it's easy to see him being the highest scorer on the slate.

Flex Breakdown

The two strongest players remaining are both running backs.

Rachaad White ($12,500) has fallen off production wise as of late, but he still has seen 68% of the team's running back carries while maintaining a 14% target share. He's more of a high-floor play because of the volume he gets but doesn't really have the upside to warrant MVP discussion outside of large-field tournaments when Detroit is nF's eighth-best rushing defense.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($13,000) is projected for fewer points than White and carries a higher salary. It's always hard to pinpoint exactly how Detroit will use their backs, but Gibbs will almost certainly see more usage in the passing game than Montgomery. He had a 14% target share this season compared to just 5% for Montgomery. Of course, he's also explosive enough to break off a big play and score from distance.

There was a surprise, breakout pass-catcher for both teams last week. On Detroit, Josh Reynolds ($9,500) only saw two fewer targets than St. Brown on Wild Card Weekend, and he has a rapport with Jared Goff dating back to their days together with the Los Angeles Rams. Reynolds quietly saw 35% of the team's end-zone targets this season, so he makes sense in lineups with Goff at MVP.

Tampa had second-year tight end Cade Otton ($9,000) draw 11 targets last week, a career-high mark. He's an interesting option to use in the place of Chris Godwin ($10,000), who has seen seven targets or fewer in his past three games after a stretch of increased volume.

Sam LaPorta ($11,000) made a somewhat miraculous appearance in last week's game and ran 80% of the team's routes. He only saw three targets and may have been banged up, but this will also likely lead to him being not popular in this game.

Some low-salary dart throws come in the form of wide receivers. Jameson Williams ($8,000) ran a season-high 87% of routes last week, and the former first-round pick has the type of speed that can make big plays. Both Trey Palmer ($8,000) and David Moore ($7,500) scored touchdowns for Tampa on Monday. I'd certainly prefer Palmer; he's seen a 12% target share compared to just 4% for Moore since he joined the team in Week 12.

I'd probably avoid using either defense; neither team has featured the type of pass rush to cause a lot of chaos that we need for them to score fantasy points -- especially in a dome.

However, with a pretty high game total, you can use either kicker. Kicking indoors helps both Chase McLaughlin ($9,500) and Mike Badgley ($8,500). McLaughlin's high salary is justified; Tampa scored the third-lowest rate of touchdowns on red-zone trips (44.9%) this season. On the flip side, Detroit had the second-best TD rate inside the 20 (65.7%) across the league.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.