FanDuel Pitching Primer: Wednesday 8/16/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.

Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.

Top Options

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays ($11,100)

Kevin Gausman has arguably been baseball's best pitcher this year, so he's surely a top option for today's slate.

The Toronto Blue Jays' ace has been dominant. That's the best way to put it, really. Gausman ranks second with a 3.05 SIERA (first in the AL) and first with a 2.72 FIP.

He's also been a knockout pitcher too, which is where he becomes so valuable for DFS lineups. He's striking out batters at the highest rate of his career with a 32.5% clip. This is the second-best in the Majors, too.

It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that he's a virtual must-start against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have been a middle-of-the-road offense in the second half with a .323 wOBA (12th) and 38 home runs (15th). This isn't the scary lineup that Philadelphia carried to a World Series appearance a year ago by any stretch.

What should especially get excited us excited is Philadelphia's 24.3% strikeout rate in the second half. Gausman is going to take advantage.

The Phillies have the third-worst implied total on the day at 3.67, making Gausman all the more tempting.

Now, where you may hesitate is his $11,100 mark -- the highest of anyone on the day. numberFire projects him for 37.1 FanDuel points, though, so he's very much worth the salary.

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres ($10,600)

Blake Snell has returned to form this season and is getting closer and closer to potentially capturing his second Cy Young trophy.

He'll look to continue that possibility tonight as he takes on one of his former AL East rivals, the Baltimore Orioles.

There's no doubt the AL East-leading Orioles present a tough matchup on paper, but if you dive in a little deeper, you'll learn it's a fine opportunity for Snell to put up some big numbers on the stat sheet and in fantasy.

The O's are down to a .307 wOBA in the second half, good for 19th in MLB in that span. They aren't doing much in the power department, either, with just 31 home runs over 31 games.

Snell has outperformed expectations this year, as his league-leading 2.63 ERA is far better than his 3.84 xERA, but that's still a solid mark. The Padres starter has also managed to deliver an elite 31.3% strikeout rate, following much of what he's done for the majority of his career. It's his sixth straight season over 30%.

numberFire's model has Snell projected for the most points of any starter today at 38.6 FanDuel points. The Orioles have the second-worst implied total on the day, so all things line up for a huge outing again for the Padres ace.

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners ($10,500)

As we've grown used to, Luis Castillo is a top option for lineups yet again.

The Seattle Mariners ace has been a force all season long with a 3.14 ERA through 143 1/3 innings. His 28.2% strikeout rate is the best it's been since the 2020 season, giving him a good shot for some huge numbers against the Kansas City Royals. Castillo is averaging 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings.

Usually, the Kansas City Royals are a great matchup because they sit at a .301 wOBA on the season with a 23.4% strikeout rate. However, they've turned things around in the second half. They've been a top-10 offense in terms of wOBA (.334) while really limiting their strikeouts (19.2% rate). It's a pretty impressive turnaround for the AL Central's last-place team.

Those overall improvements aren't going to make us fade from Castillo, though.

Seattle's ace is projected for 36.4 FanDuel points, per numberFire, the third-best of the night behind Snell and Gausman.

Value Plays

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves ($9,100)

Charlie Morton hasn't been the same pitcher he's been over the last five years, but he's still a solid value play if you want to go away from the top options on the slate.

Morton gets an opportunity against the New York Yankees, who haven't turned a major corner offensively since getting back Aaron Judge -- even if they're a lot better than they were without him.

New York is hitting to the tune of a .309 wOBA in the second half, but since Judge's return on July 28, they're up to a .318 wOBA. That has them in the top half of the league.

But the Yankees are still not an elite offensive team by any stretch, striking out 24.3% of the time and having a .149 ISO, as well. That's why Morton should still be able to succeed.

The righty is coming off a fine start where he allowed no runs against the New York Mets but walked seven batters. He's had a bit of a streaky side in terms of accuracy with that being the worst of it.

As long as he can avoid the walks he should be fine. Morton's 23.9% strikeout rate still low compared to his first two seasons with the Braves but is still respectable.

Morton has the fourth-highest projection of points on the night by numberFire as he sits at 34.4 FanDuel points.

Jon Gray, Texas Rangers ($8,600)

If you're looking for real value, Jon Gray feels like the starter to fit into lineups.

Gray has a 20.8% strikeout rate which isn't all too exciting -- but his strikeouts have been up over his last three starts.

The Texas Rangers went out of their way to add starters at the MLB trade deadline, so Gray is pitching to try and find himself a spot come playoff time.

In his last three starts, Gray has struck out six twice and seven in his most recent outing. His last start was actually one of his best all season, as he went seven innings strong with seven Ks and just allowed two hits with no walks.

He can build on that against the Los Angeles Angels.

Los Angeles has struggled in the second half with a 28.1% strikeout rate, the second highest in the Majors. The .310 wOBA and .186 ISO keeps the Angels' offense in the middle of the league overall, but with a strikeout rate that high -- and how Gray has been doing lately -- this really does feel like the perfect storm to get Gray into lineups if you're looking for a value.

The Angels also have a tough implied total on the day at 3.88, so it's all the more supportive of a Gray start.

numberFire has Gray projected for 28.5 FanDuel points tonight.

Honorable Mentions

Clayton Kershaw ($10,800): Kershaw will make his second start since returning from injury, which likely is to keep him a bit more limited as the Los Angeles Dodgers do their best to keep him healthy for the playoff run down the road. In his first start back, he went five innings, allowing one run and striking out four. He was having a great season ahead of the injury, but it's hard to trust Kershaw for a full-on start with this just being his second one back.

James Paxton ($10,000): The Boston Red Sox starting pitcher should have no problem against the Washington Nationals, but it's hard to put up big flashy numbers against them. They are only striking out at a 19.0% rate this season. It's best to leave Paxton out of lineups.

Aaron Nola ($9,300): Nola is projected for a solid 34.0 FanDuel points on the night but doesn't slot as a top option or a value play. The matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays could always be a scary one with how their bats get going.

Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.