FanDuel Pitching Primer: Wednesday 7/19/23

When building daily fantasy baseball lineups on FanDuel, nailing the pitcher spot is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's break down today's MLB DFS pitching slate.

Top Options

Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers ($10,600)

Eduardo Rodriguez has himself an impressive matchup today against the Kansas City Royals.

Since making his return to the team this year, E-Rod has been as good as he was expected to be when the left-handed starter signed a five-year, $77 million deal with the Detroit Tigers. Rodriguez has pitched 76 2/3 innings this year to the tune of a 3.62 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 3.28 fielding independent pitching (FIP), and a smooth 26.8% strikeout rate.

He's been one of baseball's best pitchers when on the bump, and the Royals have been one of the team's worst at the plate -- a perfect combination.

The Royals are top 10 in strikeout rate (24.4%) and second to last in weighted on-base average (wOBA; .292), setting up Rodriguez for a potentially huge day.

On the flip side, one consideration to take into mind is that Rodriguez hasn't hit seven innings in any of his last five starts, which has long been one of his problems as a starter. As long as he can go six innings and get some sizeable strikeout numbers, however, he'll play up to the high salary.

numberFire's model sees Rodriguez having a strong day but not to the levels of the other top options as he's projected 28.7 FanDuel points.

Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners ($10,500)

Perhaps the top starter of the day, Luis Castillo looks to continue his good season as one of the bright spots for the Seattle Mariners.

If a top option were worth jumping at in a set-it-and-forget-it fashion, Castillo is seemingly him.

The right-handed hurler has a 26.9% strikeout rate that aligns perfectly with the Minnesota Twins' league-high 26.9% strikeout rate -- that's right, the exact same number. It should spell big punchout numbers for Castillo today -- even if the Twins pack a punch power-wise (126 home runs).

While his numbers aren't as shiny as last season's -- 3.66 SIERA compared to last year's 3.35 -- Castillo has still been one of baseball's best. The 3.66 SIERA ranks 16th in the league, and that's with him coming off a not-so-great stretch in his recent starts.

The Twins have the worst implied total of the slate at 3.37, which only makes Castillo all the more exciting for fantasy players.

Seattle's ace is the top guy in numberFire's projections, expected to finish with a staggering 36.0 FanDuel points.

Now-or-Never Option

Justin Verlander, New York Mets ($9,500)

If you're ever going to start Justin Verlander, it's today. Who would have thought we'd be saying that this season?

The New York Mets' version of Verlander has struggled thus far as the future Hall of Famer isn't the same pitcher he was a season ago when he won the AL Cy Young. And the Mets, well, a 44-50 record should tell you everything you need to know there.

But today is a new day, and Verlander has a brilliant matchup against the Chicago White Sox. The same White Sox team that has the 4th-lowest wOBA (.299) and a 25th-ranked weighted runs created plus (wRC+, 89). Their 23.5% strikeout rate is a number we can feel good about, as well.

Verlander owns a 4.64 SIERA and 20.2% strikeout rate, the latter of which is his lowest since 2014. But in his last four starts, he's begun to put it back together, and that should give us some hope. Over 23 innings in that span, he's only allowed five earned runs, so he's finding his way.

The numberFire model has Verlander projected for the third-most points on the day (33.8). He can come through in this matchup.

Value Plays

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs ($8,200)

Listen, Kyle Hendricks isn't going to give you big strikeout numbers, and that's okay -- on this slate, at least. What he can give your DFS lineups is a quality start while you spend your salary elsewhere.

Hendricks has his lowest strikeout rate since his rookie season (2014) at a 15.6% clip. The Chicago Cubs' starter also has career-high marks in SIERA (4.74) and expected FIP (xFIP; 4.70), but he can have success today with the Washington Nationals as his opponent.

The Nationals are 20th with a .313 wOBA but do avoid strikeouts with a low 19.0% rate. It's not the best value you'll ever get to choose from, but on today's slate, he's among the decent options.

Hendricks is projected for 28.0 FanDuel points, per numberFire.

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins ($7,200)

Kenta Maeda hasn't had the best season on the surface level, but he's someone who deserves some respect and could be the value of the day thanks to his matchup.

Maeda is currently rocking a 5.50 ERA through his eight starts, but he's been so much better than that. The 35-year-old has a 3.96 SIERA and 3.46 FIP, both incredibly respectable numbers that'd rank highly among qualified starters. He's also striking out batters at a 26.6% rate -- which is ideal for DFS.

Taking on the Seattle Mariners, Maeda could have the outing that makes people notice how good he's actually been this season.

It feels like I'm always writing about the Mariners' struggles when it comes to picking a pitcher worth starting against them, but you know what, if you got a 25.8% strikeout rate, you're going to keep getting picked on! Seattle's susceptibility to the strikeout has Maeda positioned as a perfect value on the slate.

numberFire's model has Maeda projected for 28.6 points.

Honorable Mentions

Charlie Morton ($10,300): Morton has become an ageless wonder of sorts as the second half of his career has been filled with nothing but success. The Atlanta Braves have counted on Morton since bringing him to the team in 2021, and he's answered the call time and time again. The righty's numbers are respectable this season as a 25.7% strikeout rate for the 39-year-old is as solid as can be, but it won't be an easy night of striking out hitters. He has a tough matchup against one of the best offenses in the league -- the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that strikes out at only a 20.3% rate. numberFire has Morton projected with the second-highest total of the night at 35.5 points, but I'm not quite as bullish as numberFire's model is.

Jose Berrios ($9,800): Berrios has clicked in his second full season with the Toronto Blue Jays. He's currently sporting a 4.06 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate, and he is back above 10.0% with his swinging-strike rate (10.8%). The main reason I have him as an honorable mention rather than a firm option is that the matchup with the San Diego Padres is a tough one. The Padres are in the middle of the league when it comes to wOBA (13th) and strikeout rate (17th). They do have the power, though, with 121 home runs, so if you like Berrios' chances, go for it. He's projected for 30.0 FanDuel points by numberFire.

Yu Darvish ($9,200): Darvish is in the same shoes as Berrios -- respectable numbers but an opponent that is stout. The Padres' starter has a 3.90 SIERA and 3.77 xFIP while still remaining a strikeout machine (25.8%). Toronto doesn't strike out a lot (20.8%) and is dangerous (.325 wOBA), so it's far from a welcoming matchup. I'm going elsewhere.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.