FanDuel Pitching Primer: Wednesday 6/28/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Options

Blake Snell ($11,100)

Today's top-of-the-top option is San Diego Padres pitcher Blake Snell -- just make sure this game plays as air quality is a concern.

Snell has been good this season for the Padres. Where he excels is with big strikeout numbers. The lefty comes into today's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 30.7% strikeout rate, the fourth-highest among starters. That, more than anything, sets him up for a big FanDuel output.

Snell also sports a 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) on the season but has been all the more impressive in June as he has a minuscule 1.18 fielding independent pitching (FIP) this month.

The Pirates have been in the bottom half of the league this year offensively with a .310 weighted on-base average (wOBA, 22nd) and 93 weighted runs created plus (wRC+, 23rd). Pittsburgh has the third-worst implied total of the day at 3.87, according to the numberFire heat map.

numberFire's model has Snell projected for a slate-leading 35.5 FanDuel points.

Mitch Keller ($10,800)

Mitch Keller will oppose Snell on the mound and is also one of the top options for DFS lineups.

Keller has had a great season for the Pirates, making immense strides in his game from last season to this season.

In 2022, Keller had a 4.18 SIERA and 20.1% strikeout rate. This season, both those numbers have drastically improved as the right-hander has his SIERA is down to a 3.42 clip (10th-best in the majors) and the strikeout rate is up to 27.7% (10th-best).

The Padres' lineup isn't what it was expected to be, middling through the majority of the season rather than being among the best. San Diego ranks 15th in wOBA (.317) and 13th in wRC+ (101).

Keller is the slate's number-two hurler at a projection of 34.7, according to numberFire.

Value Plays

Aaron Nola ($9,600)

It goes without question that Aaron Nola hasn't been the same pitcher we've been used to, but he's still one of the best in the game when he's on.

On the surface, Nola hasn't been the ace the Philadelphia Phillies have grown accustomed to. His 3.92 SIERA is the highest it's been since 2019, and, if the season ended now, it would be the second-worst SIERA of his career. The strikeout rate is down also from 29.1% to 24.3%.

The good news, however, is that he's been much better in June and should close out the month properly against the Chicago Cubs.

In June, Nola has a 3.14 FIP to go along with a strikeout rate that is up to 32.7% through 26 innings this month. The Cubs are striking out at a 24.1% clip (ninth-highest), giving Nola the strikeout upside we crave.

The Cubs are tied for the second-worst implied total today (3.85), setting up Nola for some major success.

Chris Bassitt ($8,900)

This year hasn't allowed us to see the Chris Bassitt we've grown used to, but he's still a veteran pitcher who can deliver a good outing.

Bassitt has been one of baseball's best middle-of-the-rotation guys for the past few seasons. He's still pretty solid -- even if his 2023 numbers won't wow you. In June, Bassitt has a 4.31 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP). On the season, his SIERA is up to 4.52.

Bassitt's track record and the opposition of the San Francisco Giants should make him a value even with the struggles this season. The Giants strike out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball (24.9%), so there's strikeout upside here for Bassitt if he's dialed in.

The Giants are a good offensive team, holding a .325 wOBA, but if you're looking for a lower-salary arm, Bassitt is worth a look.

Tournament Options

Logan Webb ($10,700)

Logan Webb has been a force this season and is a tournament option for today due to a tough matchup against Toronto.

What Webb does so well is limit good contact against him as his dazzling 61.9% ground-ball rate leads the majors this season and is currently the best clip of his career. His 3.21 SIERA is also among the best in baseball, ranking fourth. The biggest difference for Webb this season as opposed to last is the improved strikeout rate, which has gone from 20.7% to 24.0%.

If it wasn't for Snell or Keller having more ideal matchups, Webb might be the best selection of the day.

The Blue Jays do create the possibility of their bats exploding any night as their .327 wOBA ranks eighth and their 110 wRC+ ranks fifth. Toronto's home run numbers are down (89) from what you'd expect of them, though, Webb's ability to force the ground-ball gives him a great chance to keep the ball in the yard.

Webb is projected for 29.2 FanDuel points, per numberFire, and if the Pirates-Padres game gets canceled, he'll climb up today's ranks.

Kodai Senga ($10,300)

New York Mets starting pitcherKodai Senga is another fine start on today's slate.

Senga has been pretty good in his first MLB season. Senga has proven, more than anything, that he has elite stuff to strike out batters.

He currently holds a 28.0% strikeout rate in 76 2/3 innings. If he was qualified in innings, he would rank between Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease in strikeout rate, which would put him eighth-best in the league. According to Baseball Savant, Senga's forkball has a 58.4% whiff rate and a .118 batting average against -- making it a dominant pitch.

The Milwaukee Brewers should be a friendly matchup for Senga as the Brewers are striking out at a 25.8% rate -- third-highest in baseball. Their .298 wOBA leaves them 25th in the league, so they're not packing much of a punch.

Senga can be a force for the Mets today and is an option worth considering.

Quick Mound Visits

Zach Eflin ($10,500): Eflin has been another great find for the Tampa Bay Rays, but a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks and their impressive lineup makes him a tougher sell -- even with his 3.33 SIERA.

Braxton Garrett ($9,900): Garrett could be a good play against a struggling Boston Red Sox team as his 28.7% strikeout rate gives him a solid floor/ceiling combination.

Cristian Javier ($9,400): There's some good value in Javier for DFS lineups, but the St. Louis Cardinals are still a tough matchup despite their woes in the win-loss department.
Logan Allen ($8,400): Needs to be on our radar. The rookie lefty has been a little all over the place this year, but he flashed big-time strikeout stuff in the minors, recording a 34.5% strikeout rate in a brief Triple-A stint. The matchup against the Kansas City Royals is a good one.

Domingo German($7,700): The Yankees' starter has an advantageous matchup with the Oakland Athletics but has been bad this season, sporting a 5.29 FIP. The salary savings are enticing on a night when we want pieces of the Los Angeles Dodgers' offense, but locking him in requires some courage.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.