FanDuel Pitching Primer: Wednesday 6/21/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Choices

Shohei Ohtani ($10,700)

Shohei Ohtani had a 15-game hitting streak snapped last night, but tonight will take the mound and try to impact the game that way.

Ohtani is having a solid season as a pitcher. He has the second-best strikeout rate of his career at 31.7%. He also has the second-best Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA) of his career, and could be due for some regression.

The Japanese phenom has allowed home runs at a career-high rate this season. However, his ground-ball rate, exit velocity and launch angle are all at the bests that he's ever had. This should mean his home run rate will normalize.

It's not an easy matchup for Ohtani against the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, but he does carry the second-best projection, according to numberFire's model.

Luis Castillo ($10,600)

Luis Castillo is neck-and-neck with Ohtani as the best high-salaried option tonight. His numbers are comparable, but he does have a better matchup.

Castillo is striking out 29.6% of the hitters he faces and has the best strikeout/walk ratio of his career. His 15.6% swinging-strike rate is the second-best in baseball, and his 3.39 SIERA is better than Ohtani's 3.59.

It hasn't been often that you want to target a pitcher against the New York Yankees on the road, but this Yankees lineup without Aaron Judge has been weak. They rank 28th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC) against right-handed pitchers.

The Yankees (3.71) have the lowest implied team total tonight, and Castillo is projected to be the best pitcher on the main slate.

Aaron Nola ($9,300)

Aaron Nola comes in at a salary below the top two options, and could offer a nice discount off them.

Nola hasn't pitched as well this season as he did last year, but he still has respectable numbers. He still has a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 3.90 SIERA.

He doesn't have the best matchup against a tough Atlanta Braves lineup, but the Philadelphia Phillies are a favorite according to the MLB Odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Nola also has a projection that isn't much lower than Ohtani's and Castillo's, but comes at a significant discount.

Nola will also likely be less popular than the two true studs, making him interesting for tournaments.

Mid-Range Options

Gavin Williams ($8,300)

$8,300 is a bit steep of a salary for a pitcher making his MLB debut, but the spot for Gavin Williams puts him in consideration tonight.

Williams was ranked as the 16th-best prospect in baseball heading into this season. He proceeded to dominate in the minors, including a 33.3% strikeout rate in 46 innings at Triple-A.

He'll get to debut tonight against the Oakland Athletics, one of the better teams for a left-handed pitcher to face. The A's are 28th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ against southpaws, striking out at the ninth-highest rate too.

Oakland (3.50) has the second-lowest implied team total tonight, so the betting market seems to have faith that Williams will be able to limit them tonight. He's someone to take a shot on tonight.

Garrett Whitlock ($6,800)

Garrett Whitlock is at the lower end of the mid-tier tonight. He's had some really nice starts lately, seeming to finally adjust to being a full-time starter for the Boston Red Sox.

Whitlock had a 26.4% strikeout rate last season as mainly a reliever, with nine starts mixed in. That has fallen to 20.9% this season. However, in his last four starts, he has improved to fanning 23.6% of batters.

Whitlock will face a Minnesota Twins team that strikes out a whopping 28.3% of the time against right-handed batters. That's over three percentage points higher than any other team in baseball.

If you believe in Whitlock turning things around, this is a good spot to roster him at $6,800.

Tournament Dart

Yu Darvish ($9,100)

Yu Darvish is 36 years old, but still is a dynamic pitcher who has upside in all of his starts.

Darvish doesn't have the over 30% strikeout rate this season that he's achieved five times in his career. He still sports a solid 25.6% whiff rate, while also having a nice 3.83 SIERA.

The San Diego Padres are on the road tonight facing the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco strikes out the seventh-most against right-handed batters. Darvish will also benefit from playing in a park where it's hard to hit home runs.

The Padres are -124 favorites in this game, and it's unlikely Darvish will be utilized by the field too frequently given the other top pitching options today.

Quick Mound Visits

Sonny Gray ($9,100): Not a great matchup against the Red Sox, but Gray has been solid this season and sports a 24.6% strikeout rate.

Martin Perez ($8,300): Perez isn't ever too fun to roster, but he's a ground-ball pitcher who allows hard contact at the third-lowest rate in baseball that should give you a solid outing.

Michael Grove ($5,800): Grove has numberFire's best value projection on the slate for a pitcher, and has a 25.8% strikeout rate since being recalled to the big leagues.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.