FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 8/22/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 p.m. (EST).

All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Top Options

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks ($10,500)

I'd normally avoid a matchup with the Texas Rangers at all costs. Texas' star-studded lineup has slugged all season, though they're only averaging 5.12 runs per game over the second half -- good for seventh in the league.

But when Zac Gallen is starting, it doesn't really matter who's on the opposing end.

Gallen has been nothing short of tremendous this year. The NL Cy Young favorite has broken out in his age-27 season, sporting the ninth-lowest ERA (3.17), the fifth-lowest FIP (3.06), and the fourth-lowest WHIP (1.04) among qualified starters. Throw in a healthy strikeout rate (26.1%) and a minuscule walk rate (5.1%) and you have all the makings of one of the best pitchers in baseball.

There is certainly some concern given the matchup -- especially with Gallen's batted ball metrics.

The righty sits in the bottom 8% of the league in hard-hit rate (45.8%), and his 9.3% barrel rate leaves a lot to be desired. Throw in a 4.07 xERA and some DFS managers may struggle to trot him out against the Rangers.

Have some faith, though.

Gallen is still a stud and he's scored fewer than 27 FanDuel points just once since the beginning of July. While the matchup looks scary on paper, the Rangers are riding a five-game losing skid -- during which they've struck out at a 28.2% clip and averaged 2.8 runs per game.

While that's obviously a small sample, Gallen is catching the Rangers in arguably their coldest stretch of the season.

With numberFire projecting Gallen for 36.1 FanDuel points, he's one of the clear top-two options tonight and well worth his monster salary.

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres ($10,300)

We've got our choice tonight between the two NL Cy Young frontrunners with Gallen and Blake Snell both toeing the rubber.

Like Gallen, Snell has been tremendous this year -- particularly since the San Diego Padres acquired Gary Sanchez on May 29th.

In 15 starts since, Snell leads the league in ERA (1.26), strikeout rate (35.7%), and hard-hit rate (25.6%). He's registered an absurd 32.7% called-plus-swinging-strike percentage (CSW%) over that span and has given up more than two runs just once.

Frankly, it's incredible what Snell has done over the last 3.5 months.

With that in mind, Snell's matchup with the Miami Marlins is downright mouth-watering.

While the Marlins only strikeout at a 20.6% clip and hold the ninth-highest wOBA (.332) against lefties, they've taken a turn for the worse over the second half of the season.

Since the All-Star break, Miami has averaged the fourth-fewest runs per game (3.79) and registered the fourth-lowest wOBA (.299) in the league. That wOBA drops down to .290 against southpaws.

Snell can struggle with walks (13.7%), but Miami's lack of plate discipline eases that concern somewhat. In addition to walking at the fourth-lowest rate (6.9%) for the season, they have the fourth-highest out-of-zone swing percentage (35.6%) since the All-Star break.

numberFire projects Snell for an eye-popping 40.0 FanDuel points -- the highest of the slate. With the Marlins holding the lowest implied team total (3.31) of the night, he's a top pitching option.

Value Plays

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles ($8,200)

It took some time, but Grayson Rodriguez is finally looking like the ace the Baltimore Orioles expected him to be.

Rodriguez has been stellar since being called back up to the bigs. Over his last six starts, G-Rod has posted a 3.03 ERA, a 2.96 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP -- the ninth-lowest WHIP over that span.

His 21.9% strikeout rate isn't anything special at face value, but he has a 29.2% CSW rate over that span and has struck out 6 batters in three of six starts.

Rodriguez is coming off the best start of his young career, giving up just three hits in a seven-inning, one-run performance against the Padres.

A matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays tonight isn't easy, but Toronto hasn't been the high-octane offense we've grown accustomed to. The Blue Jays do have a decent .322 wOBA against righties this season but have struggled over the second half of the season. Since the break, Toronto sits at 23rd in wOBA (.310) while generating hard contact at the second-lowest rate (30.6%) in that split.

G-Rod already found some success against the Blue Jays, holding them to just two hits and three runs in 5.2 innings at the beginning of the month.

numberFire projects Rodriguez for 29.4 FanDuel points, which is the highest of any pitcher salaried under $9,000. Considering he's racked up at least 26 FanDuel points in each of his past five starts, he's one of the best values on the board.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners ($7,900)

The Seattle Mariners wasted no time activating Bryan Woo from the IL as he returns tonight following a brief absence to take on the Chicago White Sox.

Woo has quietly been one of the better rookie pitchers in the league this season.

It's a small sample, sure, but Woo carries a 3.93 SIERA and 25.9% strikeout rate through 11 starts. Yes, his 4.75 ERA looks rough, but his 3.37 xERA is a much better indication of how well the rookie has performed, limiting opposing hitters to a measly 32.9% hard-hit rate and 6.6% barrel rate.

Despite that, there is certainly some risk that comes with starting a rookie fresh off an IL stint -- especially one who allowed 15 runs in his previous four starts (19.1 innings).

Thankfully, tonight's matchup is about as soft as they come.

The White Sox have been one of the worst offenses in baseball against righties, ranking dead-last in wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (83) while hitting ground balls at the third-highest rate (46.2%).

Woo's got serious strikeout upside tonight, as well, considering Chicago's south siders have a 23.5% strikeout rate in that split. They've somehow been even worse over the second half, boasting a 24.4% strikeout rate and the sixth-highest CSW rate (12.6%).

All of that lines up for a shining return to the bump for Woo. At his current salary, he's a real value in any DFS format.

Honorable Mentions

Other than Gallen and Snell, Bailey Ober ($10,000) is the only pitcher in today's main slate whose salary breaks into the $10,000 range. Ober has a decent matchup on paper against a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has the sixth-lowest wOBA (.301) against righties. It's a great matchup, and Ober has enough strikeout upside (24.6% K rate) to warrant rostering him tonight -- I just prefer Snell and Gallen at that salary.

Yusei Kikuchi ($9,800) hasn't allowed more than a single run in any start since the break, and he's seen his salary soar as a result. Still, it's hard to ignore his 4.12 xERA when you start thinking about his early-season inconsistencies. A solid strikeout profile (24.9% K rate; 28% CSW rate) makes him a viable start tonight, but a date with the Orioles (10th-highest wOBA against lefties) makes me want to either jump up to the truly elite options or save some salary and drop into the value range.

I can't figure out Justin Verlander ($9,600). Despite sporting the highest SIERA (4.64) of his career and having his strikeout rate (20.2%) drop significantly from last season, he's allowed more than 3 runs just once in his previous 10 starts. His salary is manageable, but the Boston Red Sox have been crushing the ball over the second half (40.1% hard-hit rate) and have the sixth-highest wOBA against righties (.329) this season. He's the definition of risky tonight.

The Padres have the fifth-highest wOBA (.341) against southpaws this season, and Jesus Luzardo ($9,400) has allowed 20 runs in his last four starts (17 innings). Save yourself the headache.

Jon Gray ($9,200) looked like the midseason version of himself in his last two starts, giving up just a single run in 14.0 innings. However, he'd given up four-plus in five of his previous eight outings, and his 4.57 SIERA leaves a lot to be desired. Gray doesn't sport tremendous strikeout stuff (20.5% rate), but the matchup doesn't scare me. The Arizona Diamondbacks are averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game (4.06) since the All-Star break, sporting a subpar .310 wOBA over that span. He likely won't go nuclear, but you could do a lot worse than Gray tonight.

Bobby Miller ($9,000) and Lucas Giolito ($9,100) carry decent salaries, but Giolito has struggled since making the move to LA (4.85 SIERA), and Miller's matchup with the Cleveland Guardians limits his strikeout upside. Miller did string together two consecutive quality starts coming into tonight, but I actually prefer Giolito here, as the Cincinnati Reds have been abysmal since the All-Star break (.302 wOBA).

You're bound to hit on one of Bryce Elder ($8,800), Graham Ashcraft ($8,600), or Josiah Gray ($8,400), but good luck figuring out who to choose from this group. Elder's expected stats aren't great (4.29 xERA), and he doesn't strike anyone out (17.6% K rate). Even against the ice-cold Los Angeles Angels, I can't trust either Ashcraft's actual (4.89) or expected ERA (5.05). That leaves Josiah Gray, who also has rough expected stats (4.72 xERA) and doesn't strike anyone out (20.0% K rate), but his matchup with the New York Yankees has Washington on upset alert given how poor the Yanks have hit of late. Of these three anti-strikeout hurlers, I lean toward Gray, but I'd stay away in general.

Seeing Carlos Rodon ($6,700) back off the IL at such a low salary may tempt some, but I'd avoid him like the plague. He faces off against a Washington Nationals team that boasts the seventh-highest wOBA (.333) and second-lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) against lefties. The strikeout upside isn't there, and Rodon has otherwise struggled this season (5.66 SIERA).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.