FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 8/15/23

When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.

With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for Tuesday's main DFS slate on FanDuel, beginning at 7:05 p.m. (EST).

All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Top Options

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies ($10,800)

You'll have to allocate a significant portion of your budget to garner his services, but Zack Wheeler and his near-$11,000 salary is far and away the top pitching option for tonight's slate. The righty's Philadelphia Phillies travel north to take on the Toronto Blue Jays -- a matchup we typically look to avoid but has quietly been favorable toward right-handed pitchers.

Against righties, the Blue Jays have registered a pedestrian .323 wOBA and .160 isolated power (ISO), ranking 12th and 18th, respectively.

Across the board, their typically-firey offense has cooled off over the second half of the season. Since the break, Toronto ranks 16th in runs per game (4.48) and 20th in ISO (.156) while striking out a league-average 21.9% clip.

They do have the eighth-highest wOBA (.335) over that span, but considering they've mustered a third-ranked, .319 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), there is certainly some regression imminent.

That's especially true given their subpar quality of contact metrics of late. Over the second half, the Blue Jays have a bottom-five hard-hit rate (35.9%) and a bottom-10 barrel rate (7.1%). With Toronto registering the eighth-highest percentage of soft contact (16.4%), they've been far from a frightening offense over the last month.

That bodes well for Wheeler, who has been rock-solid since the break.

Over his last five outings, Wheeler's picked up five quality starts -- recording a 2.76 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate while allowing a measly .264 wOBA. He's actually pitched better than his numbers indicate as his 3.82 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is noticeably lower than his 3.29 xFIP.

That isn't anything new for the 33-year-old. Wheeler's been as consistent as they come, allowing more than 4 runs just twice while averaging 35.7 FanDuel points per game. For the season, Wheeler ranks 7th with a 3.44 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), 13th with a 27.2% strikeout rate, and 19th with a 37.4% hard-hit rate allowed. There aren't many guys doing it as consistently and well as Wheeler right now.

As a result, Wheeler carries the highest numberFire projection of the slate at 36.3 points. That's over four points higher than the next-closest player -- and the icing on the cake for justifying his monstrous salary.

Jordan Montgomery, Texas Rangers ($9,800)

Lefty Jordan Montgomery slots in as a worthy second option for those unable to stomach Wheeler's mammoth salary.

Montgomery and the Texas Rangers host their division rivals, the Los Angeles Angels. While Los Angeles' Shohei Ohtani is certainly a scary sight, their lineup is otherwise unimpressive. For the season, the Angels have struck out at the 13th-highest clip (23.4%) against lefties, but I'm more interested in what they've done lately.

Since the All-Star break, the Angels have struck out... a lot. Their 27.9% strikeout rate over that span is the second-highest in the league and they have the highest swinging-strike rate (15.5%) by a considerable margin. They haven't done much even when they've made contact, registering the 17th-highest wOBA (.313) and the 18th-highest hard-hit rate (38.5%).

L.A. is a threat to go deep at a moment's notice, however, as they boast the eighth-highest ISO (.179) and have hit the seventh-most home runs (40) against southpaws.

Thankfully, Montgomery does a good job limiting the long ball. For the season, he's allowed just 0.95 HR/9 (25th) and a 10.1% HR/FB rate (15th).

Though his ERA (3.38) has outperformed his xERA (4.23), I don't envision regression hitting tonight given how lackluster the Angels' lineup has been over the second half. Coming into tonight, Montgomery had allowed more than three runs just once dating back to May 22nd. With 9 quality starts in his last 11 outings, he's really settled down following a rocky first two months in St. Louis.

That said, Montgomery is more of a safe play rather than a contest-winning option. His lack of strikeouts (21.3% rate with a season-high of 9) limits his upside. Still, with the Angels whiffing left and right this month, he's a sneaky candidate to lead the day in strikeouts.

numberFire projects Montgomery for 31.7 FanDuel points -- fourth among all pitchers. With the Angels' harboring the third-lowest implied team total (3.74) of the slate, he's a top option on FanDuel.

Value Plays

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox ($8,500)

There are a lot of mid-range pitchers on the board tonight, but Nick Pivetta stands ahead of the pack as the clear top-value play.

The righty gets a road date with the lowly Washington Nationals. Washington has struggled against righties all season, ranking 23rd in wOBA (.304) and 29th in ISO (.134). Though they strike out at the second-lowest clip (19.0%) in that split, their lack of quality contact makes them an appealing matchup for any opposing starter. Against right-handed pitchers, the Nationals generate the highest rate of soft contact (17.2%) and the second-highest ground ball rate (46.4%).

Those hold true over the second half of the seaso, as well. They're ranked last in barrel rate (4.8%) and 29th in hard-hit rate (32.4%). Although Washington has averaged the eighth-most runs per game (4.97) since the All-Star break, they shouldn't scare anyone off Pivetta tonight -- not with how sharp he's looked of late.

Since the All-Star break, Pivetta has flashed dominant strikeout upside. A pair of double-digit K efforts propelled him to an absurd 36.4% strikeout rate across his last 28.1 innings of work. Though he's used both as a starter and reliever, he's proved capable of outputting quality fantasy outings in either capacity -- notably dropping 39 points last week against the Kansas City Royals and 46.9 the week prior against the Seattle Mariners.

He's quietly been solid all season, boasting a 3.61 SIERA and an eye-popping 29.6% strikeout rate. He can fall victim to the long ball at times, but Washington's 29th-ranked HR/FB ratio against righties (9.7%) eases that concern.

The projections like Pivetta almost as much as I do. numberFire projects the righty for 32.5 FanDuel points tonight -- by far the most among any pitcher salaried under $9,000. He's a capable option for anyone looking to allocate more of their funds toward hitters -- especially given the lack of top-end pitchers on the board.

Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs ($8,400)

Kyle Hendricks' spot on this list has less to do with what he's capable of and more to do with what the Chicago White Sox aren't.

The White Sox haven't looked anything close to a functioning offense over the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Chicago's Southsiders rank 23rd in runs per game (4.00), 29th in wOBA (.289), and 26th in hard-hit rate (35.8%). Though Luis Robert could return to the White Sox lineup tonight, he isn't enough to move me off this matchup.

So what if Hendricks isn't the same Cy Young-caliber arm he used to be? The soft-throwing righty can still take advantage of opportune matchups, and he has finished with at least 27 FanDuel points in three of his last five starts. One of those came in a matchup against this same White Sox club. In that July 25th matchup, Hendricks finished with 31.9 points, lasting 6.1 innings, giving up three runs on just four hits, and striking out four.

numberFire projects Hendricks for 28.8 FanDuel points -- second among pitchers with a sub-$9,000 salary.

While he isn't a flashy play by any means, Hendricks comes with a manageable salary and soft matchup. Consequently, he's a top value play on a night lacking quality arms.

Honorable Mentions

Both Bailey Ober ($10,300) and Yusei Kikuchi ($9,900) are quality plays tonight, but at their current salary, I much prefer Montgomery or spending up for Wheeler. Ober's matchup with the Detroit Tigers is great on paper, but he just gave up 4 runs on 11 hits in just 5.0 innings against Detroit last week. Kikuchi has pitched well over the last month but his xERA (4.26) and HR/9 (1.62) make him hard to trust against a Philadelphia Phillies team averaging the seventh-most runs per game (4.97) since the break.

Jack Flaherty ($9,600), Michael Wacha ($9,400), Bobby Miller ($9,200) all fit a similar mold as the pitcher listed above them; their salaries are just too rich for my taste. Flaherty (4.59 SIERA) is impossible to trust at that high of a salary -- especially against an offense with as many big bats as the San Diego Padres. On the other side of that game, Wacha has enjoyed a bounce-back campaign, but he's making his first start since July 1st. Against the best team in baseball, I'll pass and get back in at a later date if he looks sharp tonight. Miller's potential (seven games with 32-plus points) is intriguing, but I worry about him working deep into games with less than 5.0 innings pitched in two of his last five starts.

Josiah Gray ($8,200) and Bryce Elder ($7,900) are... fine. Gray pitching in Fenway Park scares me almost as much as his 5.01 SIERA does, and his 19.9% strikeout rate limits his upside. Elder has really fallen off since the All-Star break (5.07 FIP), and he isn't striking anyone out over that span (15.0% strikeout rate).

Dakota Hudson ($6,400) and Zack Littell ($5,700) are a bargain hunter's dream. The two come with incredibly low salaries and have mouth-watering matchups tonight. Hudson only put up 18 in his most recent start but dropped 43 on the Minnesota Twins the week prior. With the Oakland Athletics in town tonight, he's really tempting at that salary. The same goes for Littell. He's quietly scored 27-plus FanDuel points in three straight starts and now gets to face off against a San Francisco Giants lineup averaging the fewest runs (3.52) and boasting the lowest wOBA (.272) since the break.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.