FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 6/27/23
Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.
While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.
Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.
All betting references come from the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Top Options
Shohei Ohtani ($10,800)
Shohei Ohtani is the best pitcher on today's massive 15-game slate -- as he often is when he takes the mound.
Ohtani has been sensational this season with the bat and on the rubber, currently boasting -700 odds to win the American League MVP, per the AL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. He should be able to help his case all the more tonight when he goes against the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox continue to underachieve despite the talent they have, sitting with a .296 wOBA that ranks 28th in the majors. Their weighted runs created (wRC) is 25th, and they are 26th in wRC+.
Given that Ohtani has done nothing but perform this season en route to a 3.46 SIERA and 32.6% strikeout rate, the latter of which is second-highest among all starters, he has a sky-high ceiling every time out. The White Sox have the worst implied total of the day, only helping Ohtani's outlook.
numberFire's model has Ohtani as the top pitcher of the night as he's projected for a slate-leading 40.4 FanDuel points.
Framber Valdez ($11,200)
Framber Valdez has unquestionably been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he has himself a decent matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Valdez has stepped up for the Houston Astros, becoming the ace replacement with Justin Verlander moving on. The lefty ranks third in skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) at 3.11. He also ranks third in fielding independent pitching (FIP) with a 2.71 clip.
The matchup with the Cardinals isn't the best spot of the day, but it's one that a pitcher like Valdez can take advantage. The Cardinals' offense, despite their record, has still been good this season as they have a 12th-ranked .325 weighted on-base average (wOBA). St. Louis doesn't strike out all too much, either, at a 21.7% strikeout rate. But Valdez, who owns a 57.2% ground-ball rate and 26.7% strikeout rate, can succeed in any spot.
Framber is one of the best selections today even if the matchup isn't ideal.
Kevin Gausman ($11,000)
Kevin Gausman is one of the best options on this loaded pitching slate as he faces off with San Francisco Giants.
Gausman has had another great season for the Toronto Blue Jays. The right-handed starter has his highest strikeout rate since the shortened 2020 season at 31.5%, which should suit him well against a Giants offense that is striking out 24.8% of the time -- fifth-highest in the majors.
Part of Gausman's success -- other than the high strikeout rate -- is also the 44.1% ground-ball rate he's generated, his highest since 2018. The Blue Jays have leaned on Gausman with Alek Manoah losing his touch, and he's living up to it. The 3.08 SIERA of Gausman is the second-best in Major League Baseball.
The Giants are a quality team, but their high strikeout rate puts Gausman in a spot to come through with a big FanDuel output.
Value Plays
Yu Darvish ($9,300)
If you'd prefer to save some salary for the rest of your DFS lineup -- which makes a lot of sense with the high-salary Dodgers bats set to play at Coors -- there are more than a few viable salary savers. Yu Darvish looks like the best of the bunch.
Darvish has been better this season than his numbers would tell you. While he has a 4.84 ERA, Darvish has a much better looking 3.82 SIERA. He's still a good strikeout pitcher, as well. The strikeout rate for Darvish is at 25.7%, which should put him in a spot to thrive against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates are ranked 22nd in wOBA at .308 and are by no means a lineup to be nervous about. Pittsburgh has a 3.92 applied total, one of the worst for today's slate, setting up the San Diego Padres' veteran righty for a good outing.
Per numberFire, Darvish is projected as the third-best pitcher of the night with 35.2 FanDuel points.
Sandy Alcantara ($8,400)
Sandy Alcantara has himself a good matchup against a struggling and banged-up Boston Red Sox team.
The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner hasn't been the same pitcher this year, but he still has it in him to deliver a good outing. The strikeout numbers are down, and the ERA is up, but he's been better than the surface numbers say. Alcantara has a 3.55 xFIP in the month of June, so he's been on the wrong end of some bad luck recently.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have just the 22nd-best wOBA since June 18th (.297). Boston is also striking out 26.5% of the time in that span.
There are a lot of good pitchers on today's slate, and Alcantara could prove to be a real value despite his first-half woes.
Tournament Options
Joe Ryan ($10,300)
Joe Ryan has been excellent this season and is coming off one of his best starts of the year.
Against the Red Sox last time out, Ryan notched a complete-game, three-hit shutout that included nine strikeouts and zero walks. He would be among the top options of the day if he wasn't facing the Atlanta Braves, who have been the best offense in baseball.
The Braves are first in the majors with a .354 wOBA, bringing the offense each and every night. Their 141 home runs on the season also rank first and are 17 more than the second-best team.
Ryan's 2.78 FIP, 27.3% strikeout rate, and 3.45 SIERA are among the elite of the league this season -- with those numbers ranking 5th, 13th, and 9th, respectively. He can come through in this spot despite the brutal matchup, and if he does, he'll do it at what is sure to be a low draft percentage.
Clayton Kershaw ($10,600)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have leaned on Clayton Kershaw again this season, and he's done nothing but turn back the clock.
Kershaw currently ranks seventh in the majors with a 3.37 SIERA, returning to ace-like form for the Dodgers in his age-35 season.
One of the most telling statistics -- and one that signals Kershaw could thrive tonight despite a game at Coors -- is his strikeouts per nine (K/9), which is 10th-best in the majors at 10.38. Kershaw is also seventh in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) with a 3.20 mark.
Taking on the Colorado Rockies, Kershaw can continue to put up good numbers. The Rockies benefit from Coors Field, but they strike out the seventh-most at a 24.4% strikeout rate.
The Dodgers are huge -295 moneyline favorites, the most one-sided moneyline on today's slate of games.
Kershaw is projected for 33.7 points, according to numberFire, and he needs to be on the tourney radar despite throwing at Coors.
Bryce Elder ($9,700)
Bryce Elder has another chance to shine today with a matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
There's no doubt that Elder's progress this season has made up for Max Fried having to miss the majority of the year due to injury. He's allowed the Braves to count on him every fifth day as one of baseball's top starters all season long. Elder has a 2.40 ERA, third-best in baseball.
Elder doesn't have super high strikeout numbers, but he is able to limit damage better than most. With the Twins striking out more than anyone else in baseball at a 27.1% strikeout rate, there's an opportunity for the righty to log some higher strikeout numbers today. The Twins are also 21st in wOBA at .311.
The Braves have been a force all season and are -158 moneyline favorites.
Elder could reach for his ceiling against the high-strikeout Twins.
Zac Gallen ($10,000)
Zac Gallen, like Ryan, has been one of baseball's best this year and has proven that with the top WAR among pitchers (3.4, per FanGraphs).
The Arizona Diamondbacks' righty has a 2.58 FIP, which is also the best in baseball. He's done nothing but deliver in his outings. He should receive some consideration even with a difficult matchup in the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay is third in the majors with 123 home runs while also limiting how much they strikeout at 22.5%. They only trail the Braves in terms of wOBA at .347 and lead the league with a 127 wRC+.
Gallen will continue to be a top option all season, but for today, he's a tourney-only play.
Quick Mound Visits
Andrew Abbott ($10,200): Abbott has been a star through his first four starts, and a 1.14 ERA and 3-0 record make him a decent option against the Baltimore Orioles if you believe in the 24-year-old's early numbers.
Taj Bradley ($9,900): Bradley has had an excellent rookie season, but with so many good options at our disposal, he is a difficult guy to trust at this salary in a tough matchup with Arizona.
Tyler Wells ($9,200): Wells has impressed with a 3.76 SIERA and 26.3% strikeout rate, but taking on the Cincinnati Reds, who have been red-hot for weeks now, he is a tough sell.
Jordan Montgomery ($9,100): Montgomery sets up as a viable low-salary option as the lefty can take advantage of a short-handed Houston Astros offense, one that ranks 17th in wOBA.
Ranger Suarez ($9,000): Suarez is projected for a healthy 28.6 FanDuel points, per numberFire, but a matchup with the Chicago Cubs isn't one to be all that excited about. He's a good option but not a great one.
Bryan Woo ($8,900): Woo is set up for a good start against the Washington Nationals, making him one of the better low-salary options. His 2.95 SIERA and 33.8% strikeout rate jump off the page, especially for someone at this value salary -- just don't expect a lot of innings out of him.
Garrett Whitlock ($8,600): Whitlock draws a friendly matchup with Miami Marlins, who rank 20th in both wOBA and wRC+. He is a pretty enticing low-salary option.
Martin Perez ($8,000): Perez has a nice matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who are bottom five in both wOBA (.293) and wRC+ (86), although they're a little better versus southpaws.
Paul Blackburn ($7,600): While it's difficult to select anyone from the Oakland Athletics, Blackburn gets a start against the struggling New York Yankees. The salary really frees you up to go crazy with your bats.
David Peterson ($7,300): Peterson has a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, but he's been completely unreliable this season.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.