FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 6/20/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Choices

Framber Valdez ($10,900)

There are six pitchers with salaries above $10,000 tonight, and three of them stand out above the rest.

The first one is Framber Valdez for the Houston Astros, who has been close to lights out this season. He has a 26.2% strikeout rate and a solid 2.84 fielding independent pitching (FIP). He's not prone to giving up too many home runs, either, with a 57.7% ground ball rate.

He'll be at home tonight against the New York Mets. The Mets lineup isn't the worst but ranks 15th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) against lefties this season. The Mets have an implied team total of just 3.44 runs tonight, the second-lowest on the slate.

Valdez has the best projection in numberFire's model and definitely is one of the three best pitchers with a high salary tonight.

Clayton Kershaw ($10,700)

Clayton Kershaw is still chugging along at age 35 as one of the best pitchers in baseball.

The lefty has put up a strikeout rate of 29.3% and gets batters to swing and miss on 14.6% percent of his pitches. That's the fourth-highest rate in MLB.

He'll face the crosstown rival of his Los Angeles Dodgers, theLos Angeles Angels as a -142 favorite. The Angels rank in the middle of the pack against lefties in wOBA and weighted runs created plus (wRC+), but they strike out at the seventh-highest clip.

Kershaw might have greater upside than Valdez given that this is a better strikeout matchup.

Gerrit Cole ($10,600)

Gerrit Cole rounds out the top tier of pitchers tonight. He's certainly not having his best season, but he's still one of the better pitchers in the game.

Cole has seen his strikeout rate dip from 32.4% last season to 26.4% this season. That number is still good but not truly elite. Overall his FIP is just slightly higher this season (3.50), so he's still pitching pretty well.

The New York Yankees will get to play the Seattle Mariners at home tonight, and Seattle's offense has struggled this season against righties. They are 24th in wOBA and strike out the third-most often of any team.

Seattle's implied team total is the lowest on this slate, which definitely puts Cole in play if using over $10,000 for a pitcher tonight. He's projected for more FanDuel points than Kershaw at a $100 discount, and the grouping of these top three probably means that none of them will be too popular in tournaments.

Mid-Range Options

Ben Lively ($8,000)

Ben Lively is a 31-year old righty who hasn't had much of a major league career before this season but has been fairly solid for the Cincinnati Reds.

Lively's 23.3% strikeout rate is by far the best of his career. He also has a career-best 40.7% ground-ball rate. His 4.59 FIP is reasonable, and his matchup is great tonight.

The Reds are at home against the Colorado Rockies. Colorado is one the worst teams on the road with a 78 wRC+. Home/road splits aren't the best way to look at things, but with Colorado's home field being so different than any other park in the league, it can help to look at their numbers away from Coors Field.

The Rockies also strike out at the fourth-highest clip against righties. Lively is the third-best value pitcher in numberFire's model and is a solid choice as a mid-tier pitcher tonight.

Aaron Civale ($8,400)

Aaron Civale definitely isn't the most talented pitcher on the slate today, but he gets possibly the best matchup on the slate.

A surface-level 2.67 ERA makes Civale look good, but his advanced numbers are more concerning. His FIP is all the way up to 4.21, and he's been able to strand a whopping 87.2% of runners. He also has a strikeout rate under 20% while his walk rate is a career-high 8.8%.

Those numbers don't look great, but Civale gets to face the Oakland Athletics tonight. The A's strike out the second-most frequently against right-handed pitching, while also sporting the second-worst wOBA in the league.

Oakland has the third-lowest implied team total tonight, and the teams with the lower totals are facing aces. This makes Civale a value at just $8,400.

Tournament Darts

Dylan Cease ($8,600)

If you want a boom-or-bust pitcher tonight, Dylan Cease is your guy.

Cease was one of baseball's best pitchers last season. He had a strikeout rate of 30.4% and an elite swinging-strike percentage of 15.0. Those numbers have fallen to 26.2% and 12.7% this season, but these numbers are still good and mean he has the upside to have great starts if he can find last season's form.

The model still projects Cease to do well despite a tough matchup against the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have been very good against right-handers this season, ranking third in wOBA and wRC+. They do strike out 22.4%, and if Cease can get in a groove against them, he could rack up K's with the ability he has.

Cease will likely not be popular but is an intriguing tournament play tonight.

Quick Mound Visits

George Kirby ($10,000): Kirby is still behind the top options at the high salaries, but he does have a 3.11 FIP this season and is facing a Yankees lineup that has struggled a lot without Aaron Judge.

Johan Oviedo ($7,700): He's not a huge strikeout pitcher, but has a solid 3.81 FIP against a below-average Chicago Cubs lineup when facing righties.

Colin Rea ($6,300): Rea is numberFire's top guy in value rating. His 21.6% strikeout rate and 46.9% ground-ball rate make him worth a punt if you need the salary tonight, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are no cupcake matchup.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.