FanDuel Pitching Primer: Thursday 6/22/23

Nailing the pitcher slot is the first step to having success in MLB DFS on FanDuel.

While it's possible to cash if you get a bad outing from a starter, it's markedly easier to do so when you get a good or excellent showing from your pitcher, and it's darn near impossible to take down a contest without a big score from your hurler.

Weighing the importance of a pitcher's skill, salary, matchup, and park factors is the game within the game in MLB DFS. This piece is your home for a breakdown of the top pitching options on today's slate.

All betting references come from the MLB lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top Options

Joe Ryan ($10,500)

Joe Ryan is the top option on this small slate, as he will be on the bump for the Minnesota Twins. He had a breakout season last year and has been even better in 2023.

Ryan is sporting a 27.1% strikeout rate, up from his 25.0% clip last season. He also has an elite 22.6% K-BB rate and sits in the top 10 among all starters in swinging-strike rate.

A possible knock on Ryan last season was that he gave up too many fly balls and too many barrels. He's improved on both of these things this year, including lowering his barrel rate allowed to just 4.4%.

The Twins will play the Boston Red Sox in the last game of their series. Boston is a tough lineup to go up against, but they rank in the bottom third in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) away from Fenway Park.

Ryan has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season and is the cream of the crop on this early main slate. numberFire's model projects him for a slate-best 35.2 FanDuel points.

Blake Snell ($10,800)

Blake Snell isn't having a Cy Young season like has before, but he's still one of the best lefties in the game.

For the first time since 2017, Snell has a strikeout rate below 30.0% -- but just barely. His current strikeout rate is still impressive at 29.2%, which is in the top 10 in the league.

He should have the opportunity to strike out more batters on Thursday. He'll face a San Francisco Giants lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate against lefties this season.

Snell is a good alternative option to Ryan at the top of the pitching pool, and numberFire projects him for 33.9 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate.

Value Options

Logan Allen ($8,400)

Logan Allen is having a solid rookie season for the Cleveland Guardians. He's not going to win Rookie of the Year or anything like that, but he's been pretty good and should be able to give us a solid start in fantasy thanks to a superb matchup.

Allen has a 22.0% strikeout rate in his first 54.2 big-league innings, but there are reasons to believe that can get even better. He consistently struck more than 30.0% of batters across multiple stops in the minor leagues. He also has a swinging-strike rate of 12.1%, a mark which hints at positive regression in the strikeout department.

He'll get a top-notch home matchup against the Oakland Athletics. Oakland owns the ninth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers while also ranking 27th in wRC+ and 28th in wOBA in the split.

On top of that, Allen gets a nice matchup in a park that favors pitchers.

Put it all together, and Allen is a viable value target today.

JP Sears ($8,500)

You might have to take a chance on a pitcher like JP Sears on a small slate like this one.

That's not the worst thing in the world, as Sears actually has some impressive numbers. His strikeout rate is 23.2%, and he's got an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. In a year where not much has gone well for Oakland, Sears has been a bright spot.

He'll face a Guardians team that is nearly as bad against lefties as the A's are. In the split, Cleveland is 28th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA. The Guardians also rank 29th in isolated slugging percentage (ISO) against left-handed pitching.

Sears allows too many fly balls, but that's not as much of a problem in Cleveland as it is in other stadiums.

Sears probably won't be too popular but could wind up as a savvy pivot off Allen.

Tournament Dart

Bryce Elder ($9,900)

Bryce Elder will likely get overlooked on this slate. He doesn't have the sexy numbers that Snell or Ryan do, but he is still an interesting option.

Elder has just a 20.4% strikeout rate, but his 10.8% swinging-strike rate suggests that his strikeout rate may improve a tad. His best asset is his ground-ball rate. At 57.0%, Elder's ground-ball rate is the fifth-best in the league.

Elder also doesn't allow a ton of barrels. Opponents are barreling the ball just 6.7% of the time, the 10th-lowest rate. We often don't value safety in tournaments, but on a five-game slate, getting a solid start could be all you need if your bats come through.

Going up against a Philadelphia Phillies team that strikes out at the 10th-highest rate versus right-handed pitching, Elder might be able to sneak in a few strikeouts while giving us a good outing.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.